How much intelligent life is there?

[Imperialmajesty]

You're forgetting that a rather large proportion of stars are binary though.


Say a million years from now humans are out colonizing the galaxy, and come across a very primitive intelligent species on some distant planet. Which is more likely, that the advanced humans will go and interact with them straight away - or instead just observe from afar in the interests of science?

I'm just saying that even if a species got around to colonizing the entire galaxy (a pretty big ask, by the way - would they really bother to check out every planet on every star system, and often enough to see intelligent life cropping up?), there's still no reason that we'd necessarily detect them. It's entirely possible that any aliens that have found us won't want to disturb us, because they want us as their pet science project; their "zoo".

Human chauvinism. Who says an alien would be analogous to human species and human thought or would have to be?

We need to stop pretending this is a serious scientific discussion when in reality, it is barely concealed form of unscientific guessing not based on a breadth of information that might allow one to suggest one opinion or another.

 

[Lord Parkin]

Well, what is far more likely is we would find those planets that in 1, 10, 100 or 1 billion years away from intelligent life. There's a huge window to colonize before intelligent life starts.

Right, but odds are that there would be a few planets which were not so far away from intelligent life (or already had primitive intelligent life confined to the planet's surface).

Human chauvinism. Who says an alien would be analogous to human species and human thought or would have to be?

Well, there aren't very many basic options. If an alien finds us, the options pretty much boil down to:

- Ignore us
- Observe us
- Contact us
- Destroy us

Of course there may be more intricacies, but those are the basic options from which any approach should stem.

We need to stop pretending this is a serious scientific discussion when in reality, it is barely concealed form of unscientific guessing not based on a breadth of information that might allow one to suggest one opinion or another.

Who's pretending this discussion is scientific? I'm certainly not - I'm just having fun thinking about the possibilities.

 

[Imperialmajesty]

Right, but odds are that there would be a few planets which were not so far away from intelligent life (or already had primitive intelligent life confined to the planet's surface).


Well, there aren't very many basic options. If an alien finds us, the options pretty much boil down to:

- Ignore us
- Observe us
- Contact us
- Destroy us

Of course there may be more intricacies, but those are the raw options as I see them.


Who's pretending this discussion is scientific? I'm certainly not - I'm just having fun thinking about the possibilities.

Again, you are using human concepts. Who says they would operate under the 4 options. We do not know.

Anyway, thinking about the possibilities is fun, but some take it as scientific.

 

[Lord Parkin]

Again, you are using human concepts. Who says they would operate under the 4 options. We do not know.

Well what alternatives are there? You can either ignore something - or you can take an interest in it. (Whether that interest may be militaristic, scientific, peaceful, or whatever.)

You're splitting hairs too much, I think. Logically, you have to do one or the other thing. Ignore or observe more closely? Contact or keep quiet? Fire the massive planet-destroying weapon or not?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Well, some of the magic of the Fermi paradox comes from the longevity of the galaxy. Consider if there were 10 intelligences out in our galaxy (far less dense then your suggestion), and each lasts on average a million years, then in the past 2 billion years there should have been about 20,000 civilizations, Why didn't a single one of them colonize the entire galaxy (which presumably we'd detect)? If it was as you proposed, then we're taling 2 million civilizations, not one of them which managed to pull off the feat. And that's not taking into the account the potential for civilizations in nearby galaxies to pull off the colonization in ours. We are ingenious spreading machines, that I believe are fully capable of colonizing the entire galaxy within a few million years a split second on the timescale of the galaxy, and yet we don't see that that's happened. That's the core of the Fermi paradox.

Each lasting on average a million years is stretching it in my opinion. Also, Consider there's on average 1 lifeform per 10 galaxies and multiple lifeforms per galaxies are very, very edit: very very, rare. Chances of encounters really go down fast.

Also your example presumes alien lifeforms have the same characteristics as ours. The need to colonize, explore. Even if a large part of our galaxy is already colonised by an alien lifeform (extremely unlikely) it still is a stretch for them to 'notice' us. For how long have we been interesting to potential alien life? 3, 4 thousand years? That's easily missed. How long have we been radiating our existence into space? 60-70 years. This only covers a very small part of the galaxy. And the aliens might not even notice since maybe they do not care, maybe they don't use radio waves and misinterpret our signals as natural occurrences.

Bottom line for me: The Fermi Paradox hinges on assumptions, the conclusions based on the FP look a little shaky to me. Too many ifs and butts to make it much more credible than: who knows?

 

[El_Machinae]

http://www.physorg.com/news164986606.html

For more than 50 years, many have taken the so-called Fermi Paradox to indicate that the existence of intelligent alien civilizations is an impossibility. However, a recent re-examination of the paradox points out that, rather than discounting the spread of an intelligent civilization, the Fermi Paradox merely points out that advanced civilizations with exponential growth are unlikely to exist.

 

[Perfection]

Human chauvinism. Who says an alien would be analogous to human species and human thought or would have to be?

Well, I think that we could still think of aliens as rationally pursuing goals (or else they wouldn't be intelligent), and of those goals, expansion (a trait that seems to result from almost any sort of evolutionary process, biological or otherwise), and knowledge (aliens that do not do so wouldn't be intelligent) would be extremely likely.

We need to stop pretending this is a serious scientific discussion when in reality, it is barely concealed form of unscientific guessing not based on a breadth of information that might allow one to suggest one opinion or another.

I mostly agree here, I should note that my Fermi paradox argument, is very much a speculative guess and though I believe it is true, certainly isn't an airtight argument.

Right, but odds are that there would be a few planets which were not so far away from intelligent life (or already had primitive intelligent life confined to the planet's surface).

Well whatever the odds are (I don't think that intelligent life itself must be at all common, so your odds of finding the sapient species in early development could be quite low) the odds of encountering it far before are much higher. So the determining factor isn't what aliens do around sapient species, but what they do around life itself.

Each lasting on average a million years is stretching it in my opinion. Also, Consider there's on average 1 lifeform per 10 galaxies and multiple lifeforms per galaxies are very, very edit: very very, rare. Chances of encounters really go down fast.

Well, the rarer they are the less Fermi paradox applies, I don't realy see too much Fermi paradox objections to such rarity. Fermi paradox presumes a certain level of commonness.

Also your example presumes alien lifeforms have the same characteristics as ours. The need to colonize, explore.

See my reply to imperial maj above.

Even if a large part of our galaxy is already colonised by an alien lifeform (extremely unlikely) it still is a stretch for them to 'notice' us. For how long have we been interesting to potential alien life? 3, 4 thousand years? That's easily missed. How long have we been radiating our existence into space? 60-70 years. This only covers a very small part of the galaxy. And the aliens might not even notice since maybe they do not care, maybe they don't use radio waves and misinterpret our signals as natural occurrences.

Well, I think the bigger issue is us noticing them, not just them noticing us or SETI working out (SETI kinda sucks). Consider the moon. The moon is a wonderful buffet of lots of good materials that an advanced species would find useful. Why hasn't ET taken it over yet?

Bottom line for me: The Fermi Paradox hinges on assumptions, the conclusions based on the FP look a little shaky to me. Too many ifs and butts to make it much more credible than: who knows?

I definitely agree that the fermi paradox is a shaky argument, but I think while still very shaky, it's good at making a few decent guesses and is less shaky then randomly plugging in mad up numbers into the drake equation ro several other idea completely lacking in rigor.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

http://www.physorg.com/news164986606.html

Nice angle.

Doesn't the FP also need the ability to break the speed of light (or go around it using wormhole travel) for this? If we take our galaxy as an example, and perfection 1 million year lifespan for a civilisation, it would mean that civilisation would have to spend 10% of their entire existence travelling at the speed of light to cross from one side to another. Coupled with your article which argues against the civilisation branching of exponentially in all different directions, it would seem that a civilisation lasting a million years still would only colonize just a small part of the galaxy. Obviously they'll seek out planets in 'close' proximity from each other instead of colonising in a straight line.

edit: Crossposted! I'll have to get back to this Perf, have to run

 

[Perfection]

http://www.physorg.com/news164986606.html

For more than 50 years, many have taken the so-called Fermi Paradox to indicate that the existence of intelligent alien civilizations is an impossibility. However, a recent re-examination of the paradox points out that, rather than discounting the spread of an intelligent civilization, the Fermi Paradox merely points out that advanced civilizations with exponential growth are unlikely to exist.

I don't buy the argument, why would aliens only colonize from their homeworld? Consider if that if from every star, aliens colonized only the stars 10 light years away or less, and it takes 10,000 years to pull off this colonization from a freshly colonized world, that's only 10,000 years *100,000 lightyears (the diameter of the milky way)/10 lightyears range =100 million years to pull off colonizing the entire galaxy. Peanuts!

 

[Perfection]

Doesn't the FP also need the ability to break the speed of light (or go around it using wormhole travel) for this?

Nope not at alll.

If we take our galaxy as an example, and perfection 1 million year lifespan for a civilisation, it would mean that civilisation would have to spend 10% of their entire existence travelling at the speed of light to cross from one side to another. Coupled with your article which argues against the civilisation branching of exponentially in all different directions, it would seem that a civilisation lasting a million years still would only colonize just a small part of the galaxy. Obviously they'll seek out planets in 'close' proximity from each other instead of colonising in a straight line.

the 1 million years is just a random number for the lifespan of a typical non pan-galactic technological civilization, I presume galaxy colonizers would have far greater lifespans.

 

[warpus]

Perfection

I love it how you dismiss any statistical analysis of potential life in the Universe as "speculative and thus worthless", yet you drive head-first into making assumptions into potential life, should it exist out there.

 

[Perfection]

Perfection

I love it how you dismiss any statistical analysis of potential life in the Universe as "speculative and thus worthless", yet you drive head-first into making assumptions into potential life, should it exist out there.

1. My assumptions are far better evidenced then yours which suck completely
2. I admit mine are highly speculative which you didn't

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Well, the rarer they are the less Fermi paradox applies, I don't realy see too much Fermi paradox objections to such rarity. Fermi paradox presumes a certain level of commonness.

[...]

I definitely agree that the fermi paradox is a shaky argument, but I think while still very shaky, it's good at making a few decent guesses and is less shaky then randomly plugging in mad up numbers into the drake equation ro several other idea completely lacking in rigor.

I see, I misinterpreted your argument. The FP does make a reasonable argument against galaxies teeming with intelligent life.

I don't buy the argument, why would aliens only colonize from their homeworld? Consider if that if from every star, aliens colonized only the stars 10 light years away or less, and it takes 10,000 years to pull off this colonization from a freshly colonized world, that's only 10,000 years *100,000 lightyears (the diameter of the milky way)/10 lightyears range =100 million years to pull off colonizing the entire galaxy. Peanuts!

You're forgetting the space war against the other intelligent life that's also expanding close by which hampers their expansionist drive.

Nope not at all.

Would be if we're taking non-exponential expansion into account.

the 1 million years is just a random number for the lifespan of a typical non pan-galactic technological civilization, I presume galaxy colonizers would have far greater lifespans.

Yeah, I noticed when you said: "100 million years to pull off colonizing the entire galaxy. Peanuts!"

 

[Dragonlord]

I was very tempted to vote: There is none on Earth but might be some elsewhere

but instead voted 5 - 10.

Just a WAG, though (wild ass guess). There are too many variables to arrive at a solid number.

I just find the extremes to be highly unlikely: I can't believe that there are none at all - we're not that special - nor can I believe there are millions in our galaxy alone; if there were, we should surely have found some sign of them by now.

 

[emzie]

Well, intelligence as in just generally getting smarter, sure that would probably be favored, but intelligence of the human sort, probably not as much. Human intelligence, is extremely costly from an evolutionary perspective and requires a unique environment for it to come into place. Wolves might get smarter, but it's doubtful that they'll grow opposible thumbs and make rocket ships.

How we did it was costly, sure. That doesn't mean our level of sentience would have the same drawback elsewhere, where something as simple as birth could be very different.

Well, some of the magic of the Fermi paradox comes from the longevity of the galaxy. Consider if there were 10 intelligences out in our galaxy (far less dense then your suggestion), and each lasts on average a million years, then in the past 2 billion years there should have been about 20,000 civilizations, Why didn't a single one of them colonize the entire galaxy (which presumably we'd detect)? If it was as you proposed, then we're taling 2 million civilizations, not one of them which managed to pull off the feat. And that's not taking into the account the potential for civilizations in nearby galaxies to pull off the colonization in ours. We are ingenious spreading machines, that I believe are fully capable of colonizing the entire galaxy within a few million years a split second on the timescale of the galaxy, and yet we don't see that that's happened. That's the core of the Fermi paradox.

You're still assuming colonizing the galaxy is practical or even feasible! Assuming FTL is indeed not possible, it would take a colonization ship generations (in human scales) to reach another habitable planet, let alone successfully colonize it. I have a very hard time seeing where such an expedition would be worth while.

edit: ziggy already hit on this and I missed it

 

[warpus]

1. My assumptions are far better evidenced then yours which suck completely
2. I admit mine are highly speculative which you didn't

What assumptions did I make?

My thesis was a simple statistical analysis of the situation.

 

[classical_hero]

If we really are all alone, I wonder what is the "point" of the rest of the universe? I guess only God knows... Also, if we are indeed alone, I think it is our duty to try to spread life in universe. Millions of years from now, the ancestors of the life of earth may have spread over large distances in the Mily Way, and evolution would create unique lifeforms out of the common origin. Then the life of earth itself would have created the alien life.

Easy. The reason for all the starts is for ys to know when the times and the seasons are.
Genesis 1:14-18 And God said, Let there be lights in the firmament of the heaven to divide the day from the night; and let them be for signs, and for seasons, and for days, and years:
15 And let them be for lights in the firmament of the heaven to give light upon the earth: and it was so.
16 And God made two great lights; the greater light to rule the day, and the lesser light to rule the night: he made the stars also.
17 And God set them in the firmament of the heaven to give light upon the earth,
18 And to rule over the day and over the night, and to divide the light from the darkness: and God saw that it was good.
And also so we can consider the majesty of God.
Psalm 8:1-3 O LORD, our Lord, how excellent is thy name in all the earth! who hast set thy glory above the heavens.
2 Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies, that thou mightest still the enemy and the avenger.
3 When I consider thy heavens, the work of thy fingers, the moon and the stars, which thou hast ordained;

Also space travel that you are describing is impossible since you need to be able to protect the ships from space dust and also we just do not have enough energy to produce a ship that can travel that far and quick enough.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

So what's the deal with them billions of galaxies we can't see? Showing off?

(And the moon isn't a light ... but hey)

(And space isn't exactly a firmament)

Does this mean that you believe that all stars, galaxies and the like are all less than 10,000 years old?

 

[emzie]

Easy. The reason for all the starts is for ys to know when the times and the seasons are.
Genesis 1:14-18 And God said, Let there be lights in the firmament of the heaven to divide the day from the night; and let them be for signs, and for seasons, and for days, and years:
15 And let them be for lights in the firmament of the heaven to give light upon the earth: and it was so.
16 And God made two great lights; the greater light to rule the day, and the lesser light to rule the night: he made the stars also.
17 And God set them in the firmament of the heaven to give light upon the earth,
18 And to rule over the day and over the night, and to divide the light from the darkness: and God saw that it was good.
And also so we can consider the majesty of God.
Psalm 8:1-3 O LORD, our Lord, how excellent is thy name in all the earth! who hast set thy glory above the heavens.
2 Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies, that thou mightest still the enemy and the avenger.
3 When I consider thy heavens, the work of thy fingers, the moon and the stars, which thou hast ordained;

You're moving pretty close to geocentrism.

 

[Agent327]

A pretty straightforward question. How many species of intelligent life do you think exists in this galaxy?

I would say the universe, but that's pretty damn big, so let's just confine it to this galaxy. If you want to ask about the universe, go start another thread.

And let's not get into any stupid discussions about what something needs to be "intelligent", okay? Let's just define it as "capable of rational thought and imagination" or something like that. Again, just go take it to another thread.

Poll will be there soon.

Mathematically speaking the odds of "intelligent life" developing are minimal at best. So, confining odds to this galaxy, the answer would be between zero to 3 or 4.