thestonesfan said:
Yeah, they've weathered many hurricanes.
Apart from that funny to see it is still a hot topic at CFC.
I think you should have been clearer on what you mean by fall. Disappearance, fall from first-rank power,... ?
The parallelism with Rome is always interesting but somewhat misleading.
First because the global situation has changed. Instant communications can change many things dramatically. Other technologies can as well. Will it prevent US fall ? Probably not though because technologies are energy-dependant. But anyway things are more global today, even though they can go back to local in case of a energy and technology crisis.
Another thing is that the Roman population was falling while the US (albeit through immigration mostly that's right but not only) the privilege of being the only developped country with many youths and a relatively-fast growing population. Can it prevent its fall ? Not automatically as these populations are diverse and ethnic-based communities could probably emerge easily in case of hard social or economic troubles.
Apart from the usual Bible + Media inspired draught + flood + earthquake + .... that appears to me some from the US "expect" a divine punishment and albeit it is probably sure the US will be struck by a natural disaster (because of their size and because of their location) in the near future (200 years is VERY near at a geological scale) I don't think the US would fall from that.
If they are really to fall completely it would probably mean IMHO :
-1/ the world stops paying for them and successfully get rid of them on the financial scene (difficult but not impossible). The US would then be just "pushed away" and decline. They would mostly become a natural resources producer.
-2/ the demographic/economical pressure from the "south" cannot be controlled (considering the current demographic growth rates, it is mostly Muslim and Black African countries that are dangerous, China is not as it will probably have aging problems much sooner than the US) and it leads to social problems both inside and outside (which can become military and the US could not win this long and very costly war). US lack of understanding of the world outside its frontiers could greatly contribute to that.
-3/ climate change : this is a real possibility albeit human actions have strange influences in both directions of climate changes, heat seems to be taking the lead. This would not only cause the fall of the US but of the world and maybe of humans. This is IMO the only "natural" disaster we have to fear seriously in the near future.
-4/ Energy crisis without proper solution. This both puts an end to the world we know and create strong antagonisms and possibly wars for the last resources (which would just delay the fall anyway).
-5/ Internal crisis : not really thorugh the extreme of civil war but just a deep social, intelectual and economical slowdown and crisis. The youth, social mobility of the US are an argument against that... provided the people at the head of the State don't play Big Brother too much. The US just would not be really the US anymore.
These are a bit extreme but some are definitely possible.
Anyway just my 2 cents. I voted more than 100 years if no extreme happens.
According to some sources, Al Qaeda has procured 40-48 nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union. If they were to successfully carry out their plan, America would fall.
