Implication of American election results

Part_Time_Civer

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Sometimes, we speculate that a certain nation or goverment will act in a certain manner, or refrain from doing so, due to upcoming elections in the US. For instance, I read a comment from one of you about Turkey being unwilling to attack Syria before the American elections take place (out of fear of influencing the election results, I presume).

While this sounds plausible, I wonder if it is actually true? Specifically, will Turkey choose to refrain from arming the Syrian insurgents because if Romney wins he might do it for them?

My question is whether or not you guys have evidence of specific historic actions from actors outside the US, that resulted from election result in the US. I don't mean: X became president and intervened in country Y, so foreign leader Z responded, but rather: X became president and Z changed his policy in response to X's presidency.

I don't have an opinion on the subject, and am eager to learn from you.
 
On the one hand, your description is largely a Media-artifact. It reflects the "thinking" (suspicions, clevereness, cynicism, etc.) of journalists reporting those stories. Historians can reflect at their lesure, but journalists have to report (guess) right now.

On the other hand, there are certainly examples of strategic planning based on perceptions of enemy intentions.

Max Hastings wrote in his book, The Battle for the Falklands (1983), that the Argentinian leadership took into account the UK's decommisioning of the Ark Royal, it's secret Act of Parliament disenfranchising it's overseas citizens, and it's willingness to negotiate as fundamental signs of weakness, and miscalculated thereby. Most directly, they didn't reckon on the Iron Lady.

If you are interested specifically in the "influence" of American elections on world events, I believe there are numerous examples to choose from. I would say however - IMHO - that these examples can be taken too seriously. It's easy to overstate the case, giving US elections too much credit. Evildoers are gonna do evil, and only the timing is effected by "influence".

I'm sure examples will follow...
 
Since no examples followed so far, I guess it is fair to say the American elections don't really influence policies of foreign leaders? So I can't speculate Turkey will invade Syria if Obama wins :-(
 
the Obama approach to "invade" the Middle East depends on getting somebody else to do it ; Turkey has been a terrible loudmouth lately and cut down to size a bit for attempting to drag US in for a cheap Turkish victory , while the Western intention is an exact opposite . So , it became a cover for Turkish politicians to accuse Uncle Sam and its worthless interest in elections while the opportunities waste themselves . Funnily enough within a month or so they begin to believe it , too . So a prayer for Barack Hussein and polls in Turkey suggest 94% of the country is for him .

am not , nor for Romney . Since when Dems stink less than Reps ?

not that US will help in the way Turkish goverment wants . We will invade Syria when it is clear we will be utterly destroyed in the chaos .
 
Seems to be plenty of evidence that Obama has made efforts to keep things pretty static in the Middle East in fear that events might derail his campaign. To the extent that his efforts have been successful we can only speculate. I'd say Bibi's backdown on Iran is a pretty good example but I admit I don't have the facts to prove it.
 
I heard that Carter/Reagan and Iran could be used as an example...

From what my co workers say it was Carter's Democrats who gave Iran a "voice" and it wasn't until Reagan was elected that Iran stopped "yelling"...

Wiki has this which fits what you ask for like Cinderella's glass slipper...:lol:

"The Iran hostage crisis was a diplomatic crisis between Iran and the United States in which 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, after a group of Islamist students and militants took over the American Embassy in Tehran in support of the Iranian Revolution.[1] President Carter called the hostages "victims of terrorism and anarchy", adding that the "United States will not yield to blackmail".[2]

The episode reached a climax when, after failed attempts to negotiate a release, the United States military attempted a rescue operation off the USS Nimitz (an aircraft carrier), Operation Eagle Claw, on April 24, 1980, which resulted in a failed mission, the deaths of eight American servicemen, one Iranian civilian, and the destruction of two aircraft. It ended with the signing of the Algiers Accords in Algeria on January 19, 1981. The hostages were formally released into United States custody the following day, just minutes after the new American president Ronald Reagan was sworn into office."


huh...wild...I'm in the middle when it comes to politics,but still interesting none the less...

Also look into Soviet-American cold war for more fun...:rolleyes:
 
a discussion last night had it that Esad might survive another 3 to 4 years , you know until a new president come in ... And they were happy too , considering the continueing fighting would leave no Syria to talk of . That's the Turkish Islamists for you , shouting so much for wrongs of the world and quite happy to see Unislamic Muslims be done with . Though not everybody is happy ; a couple of jerks in Ankara are trying to assemble an electro-magnetic weapon out of the radar equipment confiscated from a Syrian airliner and somehow they are failing ...

and just for basic information , Obama acts as if a secret Muslim only because it resonates in the Middle East , not because he is one . If he was that 10 million missing Evangelists would have voted , right ?
 
a discussion last night had it that Esad might survive another 3 to 4 years , you know until a new president come in ... And they were happy too , considering the continueing fighting would leave no Syria to talk of . That's the Turkish Islamists for you , shouting so much for wrongs of the world and quite happy to see Unislamic Muslims be done with . Though not everybody is happy ; a couple of jerks in Ankara are trying to assemble an electro-magnetic weapon out of the radar equipment confiscated from a Syrian airliner and somehow they are failing ...

and just for basic information , Obama acts as if a secret Muslim only because it resonates in the Middle East , not because he is one . If he was that 10 million missing Evangelists would have voted , right ?


I'm not sure what you are trying to say...some Islamic factions in Turkey want Assad to stay in power so Syria gets destroyed?
 
I'm not sure what you are trying to say...some Islamic factions in Turkey want Assad to stay in power so Syria gets destroyed?

Makes perfect sense....I mean even if Assad stays in power the borderlands will be ripe for the Turkish to influence the population/supply weapons to continue the fight...
 
syria has defied them , scratching their charisma as we say in Turkish . Their weapon is the perception that nothing can stand in their way , just like they crumbled the military in this "democratization" thing .

( ı tend to write a lot at home and post at the webcafes where ı surf -no connection at home . So what follows is a product that certainly repeats a few things already said .)

the US Ambrassador to Ankara has "courteously" allayed the fears that we will be sent to Syria to fight Obama's war . With usual stuff where he again re-itirated American support against the seperatists -which incidentally doesn't exist at all , apart as a real time observation of Turkish command moves - even easier than hacking into networks . He even offered to pass American TTPs , which appears to be some of a manual , including the tricks they got Usame bin Ladin . No need , ı can tell it without copying .

first , get an ally to keep an eye on your archenemy in a most secure location so that no accidents can happen to him unless desired by the US . Second , make a super-secret operation to that location to claim you are number one and can do whatever you like . Third , lose a helicopter to make it believeable that it was risky . Fourth , actually don't . Drop a contraption and burn it down and like totally forget the tail supposedly sheared off while hovering in . Fifth , suggest it is some super secret stealth thing so that your ally can lull the rising cries of "What the ..." with how they will reverse-engineer the super stealth thing and it will be sooooooooo useful against the archenemy of your ally . Papiermache wins wars , if you are that good ... Finally get leftist whiners hear it all about how the troops executed people on the spot and there you are . No need to talk of renal troubles and the like , still if necessary counter with the stash of nudity and stuff ...

friends of US in Turkey have been so loud in cries of invasion of Syria that their credibility has to be protected . As such it apparently falls to an American historian to suggest Syrian air defence system is so incredibly powerful that no operations should be contemplated , which allows the Turkish Goverment to change the tone without much eggs on the face . In a balancing act , Ankara is allowed to intercept a Syrian airliner and confiscate cargo . Which are first said to be missile parts . Coming right on the heels of a South Korean / US breach of non-proliferation treaty that might prove Turkey is a lovely puppy , with the leash in Uncle Sam's hand , to prove Russians are already breaching it anyways . Awright , it is electronics . Russians concur , they don't want Syria to actually escalate , they like capitalist profits as much as anybody . Germans don't ; they claim it is 500 kilograms of artillery shells . Which for a 152-155 mm system would be 10 rounds of so and any bunch of fatso losers can fire in exact two minutes or so . Even ı could do it ! Am growing a belly and am a loser ...

days pass and still no declaration of what was inside . Political debates touch it and once more it's missiles , though this time launcher ramps . Saudis and their media are totally against it . This time they shoot down a MiG two seater and capture a general , who commanded the shoot down of the RF-4E on June 22 . See , cowardly Turkish Air Force , nobody to operate the KX to waste you , you may go in and win the war and topple Esad so that another victory can be celebrated in glory of the Oil Empire to be .

if you find this nobody to operate so go in command foolish , it is most understandable . Just the normal run of things . The tip that got the Turkish machinery whirring was the chance to capture a KX and certain "experts" are kinda emptily staring at the walkie talkies and "radar" parts they got to figure out how this mysterious Tesla device works . Ever considered they are walkie talkies and stuff ?

on the home front the itsy bitsy teeny weeny channel , the flagship of the congregation media had it all day long that in a test in 2000 , an S-300 missile just cleared the launch tube , didn't catch fire and fell back , luckily without catching fire . See , cowardly Turkish Air Force , even S-300s are worthless , just like you are ... Go in and win so that Saudis can use their Typhoons to shoot down you all , later on when your turn comes .

finally Russian answer comes , in a way . Putin says they will sell anybody whatever they want . Russians are allotted a weekly convoy from the Straits , are they not ?

to cap it all , the Ambrassador also congrugulated Turkey for avoiding the provocations to enter the war . We are all fools in Turkey , ı for one thought we were doing the provocations to get into the war .
 
So let me get this straight, you're saying this is a conspiracy between the US and the (Turkish) AK party? The US would gain an excuse to invade Syria, and the AK party would humiliate their enemy, the Turkish army?
Or do I misunderstand you?
 
real life is far too complicated to explain over the net , even for people who count for so something , people who are so unlike me . Simplest form might be AKP was brought forth , by removing the military (loyal puppets of the US in the first place ) so that it could be a role model for the Middle East . And the Arabian Awakening , while started with an individual is much foreign controlled and seemed a perfect time to get us into some war .
 
So the AK Party (I presume?) stripped the army of its power, thereby empowering the PKK? And this served as an example for Arab rebels?

You mean the AK Party wants a revolt in Arab nations, so the Middle East becomes less secular?
 
interesting perhaps ? AKP is as much a product of Western machinezation as it is the rightful choice of the people in free elections .
 
From a Turkish national in NYC;

Spoiler :
The Daily News
LEADING NEWS SOURCE FOR TURKEY AND THE REGION


HOMEPAGE / OPINION/ MEHMET ALİ BİRAND Sunday,October 21 2012, 19:32:52


We will also be in trouble when Israel strikes Iran
NEW YORK

We are busy with our own issues. Thus, we cannot observe in the real sense what is going on around us. I have come to New York for a few days and my first job was to get a feel of the pulse of the United Nations. For this reason, instead of gossiping in domestic politics, I want to share a terrifying piece of news with you.

The development that bothers Washington the most is that Israel is preparing to bomb Iran’s nuclear center in the coming months. The Obama administration is extremely tense about the probability of experiencing such a development before the presidential elections in November.

A White House official said a countdown has begun, explaining, “We know that Israel will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons. It is extremely difficult to stop them.” The same source also said, “Iran is roofing its nuclear production unit and strengthening it against bombing. Israel believes this construction will be completed by the New Year and after this, an armed intervention would be impossible. Because of this, they are preparing.”

The same source who pointed out that there was a very wrong perception that Israel would never stop following Washington’s advice, said the Netanyahu government did not trust Obama and thus there were concerns that there were plans to strike before the election: “In the case that they strike before elections, they calculate that Obama will not be able to move. If Obama is elected after the elections, they state that it would be more difficult for them.
 
the guy is a journalist that has been covering diplomacy and stuff at least since 1974 , a TV programme he made is still remembered to be the first one that people ever saw as a balanced apparoach to foreign affairs . It is just that he is kinda given to his own hyperbole , the Israeli attack is well discussed here . The point is the attack will 99.5 percent not happen , everybody needs solid partners if and when we go down . (town ... )
 
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