Estebonrober
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lawls... this post is lacking any self-awareness at all... I can't tell if it is meant to be peak irony or if I'm supposed to take it seriously.
Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).
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Estebonrober
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In their defense they are just trying to drag US and Iran into the game formally. Never mind the disaster that will mean for the billion or so in the greater region.
amadeus
burning out his fuse out here alone
It’s not my pride speaking, but I wouldn’t call it a single-sided victory. I think a de-escalation and reduced American intervention is also a good for U.S. interests.Houthis won:
US could remove Houthis from terror list in exchange for Red Sea quiet - report
The comment is in line with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statements in November that the US would re-evaluate the designation if the Houthis ceased attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.www.jpost.com
With my limited knowledge of the conflict, I think the best solution would just be to break up Yemen into the two countries it was before 1990.
“So, in fact, this is not a humiliating defeat at all, but is actually a rare species of victory?”
“Calm yourself, Cato. You lack understanding of things military, else you would see that my actions have been perfectly correct at all times.”
“You have lost Rome without unsheathing your sword. You have lost. Rome!”
Houthis won:
US could remove Houthis from terror list in exchange for Red Sea quiet - report
The comment is in line with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statements in November that the US would re-evaluate the designation if the Houthis ceased attacks in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
The Houthis are acting on the behalf or Iran, who equips them with weaponry needed to attack the ships sailing near Yemen. The Iranian regime doesn't care whether the Houthis are on a list, or not. They care about hurting Israel and whoever they see as Israel's backers in the West.
Unhinged
Lexicus
Deity
I don't even have a response to such a post
amadeus
burning out his fuse out here alone
Offhand thought is that Iran’s only possible interest here would be to continue the war in Gaza so as to fracture the possibility of a settlement between countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia, a force that would reduce Iran’s reach. Beyond that, I don’t think they want to escalate too much with the United States or alienate the European countries that take a softer stand on economic deals with Iran.
All of that said, the Houthis are acting I think on their own agency and not following directives handed to them by Teheran.
Edit: I think there are also merits worth discussing in a limited U.S.-Iran rapprochement to (a.) undermine the Sino-Russian position there, (b.) prevent a regional de facto Israel-Saudi hegemony, and (c.) give us reason to reduce our intervention in the region. Personally, if I were pursuing this as a policy I would not have it be a “linkages” policy, certainly not one that would change suddenly on changes of the whims of the administration because I think one of the problems in some parts of our foreign policy is the inability to retain a medium-term strategic vision that holds together.
All of that said, the Houthis are acting I think on their own agency and not following directives handed to them by Teheran.
Edit: I think there are also merits worth discussing in a limited U.S.-Iran rapprochement to (a.) undermine the Sino-Russian position there, (b.) prevent a regional de facto Israel-Saudi hegemony, and (c.) give us reason to reduce our intervention in the region. Personally, if I were pursuing this as a policy I would not have it be a “linkages” policy, certainly not one that would change suddenly on changes of the whims of the administration because I think one of the problems in some parts of our foreign policy is the inability to retain a medium-term strategic vision that holds together.
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Ajidica
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Can you expand on what is "unhinged" about the post?
I can see many valid areas of disagreement with the post, but I'm not seeing what makes it "unhinged".
Lexicus
Deity
Unironically positing Iran as Morgoth and the Hothis as his orcs seems pretty self-evidently unhinged to me (or at the very least suggests a complete lack of critical media literacy)
Well it’s off its hinges innit? I reckon that’s self explanatory.
To spend a very little time on this futile elaboration: the Houthis have been doing this fighting perpendicular to Israel thing for the last several months and before that it was years and years of tail wagging the dog in the hills of Yemen. There is a real political interest behind the Houthis that is local and that actually makes it more dangerous and a more serious threat than just sweeping everything under the rug as puppets of one or two Big Bads, but then that general incapacity on the part of our citizenry is probably why we got our asses kicked over there.
Ajidica
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Not following you here. Iran and the Houthis have a close relationship, and Iran has long-standing interests in turning the Houthis into a proxy actor for the Iranian-Saudi cold war. To what degree the Houthis see themselves as part of Iran's "Axis of Resistance" and to what degree they see themselves as fellow travelers is something I don't think anyone actually has strong evidence about.
Iran and the Houthis know the Red Sea is a major pinch-point for international shipping. The Houthis were also quite open about their desire to close the straits to Israeli, British, and American shipping in support of Hamas/Gaza/Palestine.
Houthis order ‘ban’ on Israel, US and UK-linked ships in the Red Sea
Yemen’s Houthi rebels also announce ‘submarine weapons’, as leader pledges to continue attacks amid Gaza war.
The Houthis almost certainly acquired the weapons used to attack shipping from Iran, and the Iranian government aren't idiots. They knew exactly what sort of role anti-ship missiles would be used for.
The Iranian government also knows that the US-Israeli relationship is our major weak spot in the Middle East. Heck, it took six months and 30,000 dead Palestinians for the US to start to offer tepid criticism of Israel. Iranian soft power and support in the wider Middle East comes in large part for being the only Muslim country that still "stands up to" American and Israel. Fighting against Israel and "the West" through proxies is a long standing part of Iranian foreign policy.
The level of control Iran has over the Houthis is something we can discuss and disagree about, but someone taking the position Iran has pretty strong control over regional proxies is hardly something I would call "unhinged". If anything, I think the Israel-Hamas war has shown how little control Iran has over its proxies in the "Axis of Resistance", but I don't think it is unreasonable to think otherwise.
If you want to dither over what "proxy" means, go ahead. I'm not wedded to any particular definition. For example, I've heard the Arab-Israeli wars (Six Day War, Yom Kippur War, War of Attrition, etc) described a US-Soviet proxy war with Israel, Egypt, and Syria as proxies. In that context, as long as one understands "proxy" doesn't mean "puppet", I for one don't have any problem describing the Arab-Israeli wars as in part a proxy conflict between the US and USSR without diminishing any of the local factors that helped drive the conflict.
Yeah I mean, now imagine how upset y’all get when anyone talks about the influence western governments have in Israel. Like Israel is fully autonomous and independent and every murder they do is their business alone but the Houthis are just agents of Iran and we need to attack Iran now. Like maybe that works if you’re born yesterday but idk, pretty obvious attempt to deflect blame and justify escalation if you ask me
Lexicus
Deity
Remember how triggered they all got if the word "proxy" was used in the Ukraine thread lol
innonimatu
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The idea that Iran and Saudi Arabia are engaged in any kind of "cold war" is outdated. And outright wrong now. They have struck deals and even joined the BRICS together. This has happened after the saudis saw that the US was a declining power, with its military failure in the war it has been engaging in by proxy in Ukraine. But would have happened anyway, albeit taking a few years more, without that war. Economic and security considerations in both countries favoured peace and mutually advantageous deals, not wasting their resources in regional rivalry.
That this idea still endures among people in the "west" shows what I pointed out as one of big weaknesses of its political regimes (the US one and its sattelites): getting drunk on their own propaganda. It will get worse, as failures gets hidden from the voting plebs with yet more propaganda. And censorship. This reaches the "elites", which thus continue making wrong asessments and more strategic mistakes. The future is strategic collapse. Empires typically disband first slowly then suddenly.
You’re either with the fascists or the Portuguese leftists, either way you want those women to be spreading their legs on state command. So really Iran, Palestine, Israel, all of these are just penises and women’s liberation shall not involve any of them.
Ajidica
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India and China are also part of the BRICS, and India isn't investing in sophisticated military technology because it is scared of Pakistan these days!
The Saudis may be looking to play nice with Iran due to a perceived American disinterest in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, but that doesn't mean such a rapprochement can last. Iranian republicanism and (comparative) asceticism doesn't play nicely with Saudi monarchism and gaudy displays of opulence. China may have scored a diplomatic success in getting them to play nice, but Saudi Arabia and Iran could also be taking China for a ride. It wouldn't be the first time a great power found itself getting dragged around by supposedly junior partners!
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