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Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).
- Thread starter Estebonrober
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Lexicus
Deity
This new attempt to destroy the Iranian state is easily the most evil crime the West has done in my lifetime (or rather, it will be, if successful). What is in store for the Iranian people if this attempt is successful is more Libya.
As to the first point, Israel's actions over the last 4 days are in fact about the worst thing they could possibly do from the perspective of trying to undermine the Iranian regime. Even Iranians who hate the Islamic Republic have no desire to be slaughtered for the sake of Israel's "security."*
As to the third point, the idea that democracy in Iran or the wider middle east will mean Iran living at peace with "former and present enemies" is a utopian fantasy, for two reasons. One is that an Iranian government that accurately reflected popular will in Iran would still be at war with the Zionists, it would simply be prosecuting that war more effectively than the present regime is capable of doing. Second is that it is explicitly Israeli-US policy to maintain Israel's "qualitative military edge" over any possible regional coalition.
This second point is more important because it ultimately lays bare the contradictions of a US that says it wants a peaceful, liberal-democratic middle east but in fact lends total unconditional support to a colonial vanguard "state" which will never allow the middle east to develop because to do so would destroy that state's qualitative military edge. How can Israel remain assured of its ability to defeat a prosperous, liberal-democratic Iran with 10 times its population? Obviously, it cannot, and so such an Iran can never be allowed to exist.
Israel is therefore essentially locked into a perpetual game of murderous whack-a-mole, using whatever methods are necessary to prevent the emergence of any internally-stable and prosperous state in the region: preferably by covert manipulation of politics, e.g. by stirring up conflict between ethnic groups, as we've seen in Lebanon and Syria and in the territory of Palestine itself, and when that fails, military chevauchée which is designed simply to destroy the physical infrastructure on which prosperity relies.
The problem is that Israel cannot produce enough munitions by itself to do this for very long, and its hegemon patron has both a hollowed-out defense-industrial base and other pressing geopolitical commitments. There are also serious political questions within Israel which have only been drowned out by the euphoria over Israel's initial success against Iran but which are far from settled.
* I put "security" in scare quotes here because of course Israel could have all the real security it wanted if it came to a real settlement with the Palestinians and the neighboring states, but it would rather act like the Nazis in Poland while cosplaying as a Bronze Age kingdom.
As to the first point, Israel's actions over the last 4 days are in fact about the worst thing they could possibly do from the perspective of trying to undermine the Iranian regime. Even Iranians who hate the Islamic Republic have no desire to be slaughtered for the sake of Israel's "security."*
As to the third point, the idea that democracy in Iran or the wider middle east will mean Iran living at peace with "former and present enemies" is a utopian fantasy, for two reasons. One is that an Iranian government that accurately reflected popular will in Iran would still be at war with the Zionists, it would simply be prosecuting that war more effectively than the present regime is capable of doing. Second is that it is explicitly Israeli-US policy to maintain Israel's "qualitative military edge" over any possible regional coalition.
This second point is more important because it ultimately lays bare the contradictions of a US that says it wants a peaceful, liberal-democratic middle east but in fact lends total unconditional support to a colonial vanguard "state" which will never allow the middle east to develop because to do so would destroy that state's qualitative military edge. How can Israel remain assured of its ability to defeat a prosperous, liberal-democratic Iran with 10 times its population? Obviously, it cannot, and so such an Iran can never be allowed to exist.
Israel is therefore essentially locked into a perpetual game of murderous whack-a-mole, using whatever methods are necessary to prevent the emergence of any internally-stable and prosperous state in the region: preferably by covert manipulation of politics, e.g. by stirring up conflict between ethnic groups, as we've seen in Lebanon and Syria and in the territory of Palestine itself, and when that fails, military chevauchée which is designed simply to destroy the physical infrastructure on which prosperity relies.
The problem is that Israel cannot produce enough munitions by itself to do this for very long, and its hegemon patron has both a hollowed-out defense-industrial base and other pressing geopolitical commitments. There are also serious political questions within Israel which have only been drowned out by the euphoria over Israel's initial success against Iran but which are far from settled.
* I put "security" in scare quotes here because of course Israel could have all the real security it wanted if it came to a real settlement with the Palestinians and the neighboring states, but it would rather act like the Nazis in Poland while cosplaying as a Bronze Age kingdom.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
My hope for the Iranians to rid themselves of the regime, are not tied to Israel's current military operations or what the Israelis want or don't want.
It's tied to what the majority of the Iranian population want. It's ultimately up to themselves to dismantle the regime.
It's tied to what the majority of the Iranian population want. It's ultimately up to themselves to dismantle the regime.
Any government with popular support in Iran would still be anti-Western and anti-Israeli, thus will be inevitably branded as "undemocratic regime" by your media. Moreso if it happens to be pro-Russian. The only chance for Iran becoming "democracy" will be installed pro-Western puppet sitting on NATO bayonets a-la Karzai.
r16
not deity
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this is mere propaganda . Iranians rebelling . They will not , short of seeing Western troops in place with their own eyes. Israel is not friend of the Ukranian project thing ; an explanation will simply fall afoul stuff and quickly disappear . Destruction of lran will not do anything to Russian supply thing , North Korea can take up any loss for the next generation of things . As such any such declaration is a lie in the end even if the person making the statement might be sincere . Iran's fall is to lead to Civil War in the fourth target country of this thing , countries with oppressed Kurdish minorities thing .
like Israel can't hit Fordow as clearly stated in the media , blatantly trying to bring US into the war . Israel claims to be the only secure place for Jews in the world , would be horrific to let anyone escape thus they derail Trump's attempt to evacuate and shame Israel . Like Trump's side is actually very close to certain Ukranian political tendencies but whatever .
the explanation that it was to stop nuclear weapons went out of the window in two days . That it was to stop missiles , 8000 of them in the next two years will soon follow . It will be down to Iranians rebelling , meaning the very same Kurdish freedom fighters thing which still very badly needs American bombing and serious amounts of American boots on the ground . The Trump middle ground as of today seems to be providing aerial refuelling to Israeli jets .
like Israel can't hit Fordow as clearly stated in the media , blatantly trying to bring US into the war . Israel claims to be the only secure place for Jews in the world , would be horrific to let anyone escape thus they derail Trump's attempt to evacuate and shame Israel . Like Trump's side is actually very close to certain Ukranian political tendencies but whatever .
the explanation that it was to stop nuclear weapons went out of the window in two days . That it was to stop missiles , 8000 of them in the next two years will soon follow . It will be down to Iranians rebelling , meaning the very same Kurdish freedom fighters thing which still very badly needs American bombing and serious amounts of American boots on the ground . The Trump middle ground as of today seems to be providing aerial refuelling to Israeli jets .
It should be a reality that any of average intelligence and above people are taking the claims of lack of democracy as excuses. Yes, they can be real - Iran isn't a democracy; it is moreover theocratic - but this has next to nothing to do with why it is being bombed. Last time I checked the middle east has (at best) only one democracy (Israel).
Snowygerry
Deity
Turkey is a democracy isn’t it ?
If course it is, otherwise how could it ever be doing business with the Eu?
So is Qatar and Azer, using the same method of proof.
Snowygerry
Deity
It is not the West either, it is the Orient, used to be the Outre-Mer.
The Distant Lands.
The Distant Lands.
Senethro
Overlord
Do you know what? I think that even if a reasonably "liberal" and "nice" democratic enough regime were to arise in Iran? I think they'd get Cuba'd at Israel's request. Eternal embargo and sanctions for the temerity to stand against them.
Iran has been enriching uranium for, uh, 20+ years at this point?
How hard is a crude fission bomb to make anyway?
Uranium-235 - Wikipedia
Get the U-235 up near 100% from 1%, then collide two sub-critical chunks together like banging rocks together and boom!
Even North Korea managed to do it.
It is probably mostly political will to not create the ghastly things.
South Africa had 6 of them at one time in the 80's.
I was hoping for another few decades of saber rattling.
But now war is everywhere.
**Edit**
Their main method of strategic intimidation has always been closing the narrow Straight of Hormuz which is 40km wide on their southern border.
Something like 35 or 40% of the world's exported oil passes through there everyday?
The world would grind to a halt!
Then again, the fuel kept flowing from Russia through Ukraine during their war.
What will USA do with stealth bombers in Diego Garcia and carrier strike groups?
I don't know anything.
Last edited:
r16
not deity
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iran would happily have the bomb . Has shown great restraint by being a more responsible state than ... Israel . Ig is this building up pressure , including the Arabization of my country that has been pushing them to go beyond . Israel has proven why the Iranians were kinda sorta right to pursue a nuclead weapons programme . The real problem being that a nuclear programme costs a lot of money you could otherwise spend on air defences .
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
I believe Iran wants to be nuclear capable, but not actually building a bomb. Once the bomb is built, the stakes are raised and while having one may increase their absolute power, they may find a decreased relative power.
South Africa had an interesting (to say the least) strategy: detonate a bomb, also build an ICBM with Israeli technical assistance. Problem: the warheads were too heavy to fit on the missiles, so the whole thing was a bluff.
Voidwalkin
Emperor
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Disagree with 1, they have obvious incentives. Especially leadership
Agree with 2, a nuclear armed Iran would precipitate developments
Saudi development of their own nukes, or, security guarantees from the US much more substantive than is presently available to them
It would also stimulate the utter bejesus outta proxy wars, and intensify Sunni Shia rivalries. Worth nothing they are outnumbered religiously, and not Arabic; that may go poorly.
Lexicus
Deity
This is roughly equivalent to saying you hope the Russian people can rid themselves of Stalin's brutal tyranny, but it has nothing to do with current German military operations on June 23rd, 1941.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
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It's now obvious that the israelis have understood (finally) that they must necessarily lose militarily. They bet on terrorism achieving some kind of "regime change" and lost. Hence their despair to bring in the US.
This has already been the end of the crazed dreams of greater israel. It will now be the end of the crazy dreams of american empire.
This has already been the end of the crazed dreams of greater israel. It will now be the end of the crazy dreams of american empire.
Moriarte
Immortal
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There's a Grok button at the top right of every post in X. Press it and AI will explain it. Type translate, AI will translate it.
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