Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

[red_elk]

Even if websites are already talking of trucks that removed anything important two days before

Looks like both sides warned each other in advance about the strikes.
Now it's time for each of them to declare the enemy didn't cause any damage and was humiliated.

 

[Lexicus]

... which they warned Qatar about in advance.

The question now is; does Trump possess the mental capacity to understand when escalation is actually used as a means to deescalate? I have doubts.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

if he is really trying to deescalate that is very provocative in fact. For writing that he is ridiculing Iranian regimen in front of its more hawkish elements and pressing them to further scalation, unless his plan is to make Iranian regime look weak in the eyes of Iranian people. Or he is simply incredibly stupid and somebody should definitely check his twits.

 

[Joij21]

You were trolled all along folks. Nothing to see here, all meant to increase general apathy among the populace that's all. Simply waiting for the real event to be initiated so it doesn't get noticed, actually succeeds (due to little boy cry wolf effect), and blindsides society enough to create the radical structural changes ala 9/11.

Move along! Move along! Next thread!

 

[Smellincoffee]

No casualties

I think he does. He whole thing looks like a show. US attack on Iran while pretty destructive is the minimum to keep Israel happy, US could have done quite more damage very easily, And Iran's answer is a total joke for internal Iranian consumptiom executed with the maximum care to not cause any damage or casualty which had been catastrophic for Iran obviously but detrimental for Trump too.

Supposedly they worked with Qatari officials to communicate the where and when so there would be minimal casualties: a retaliatory strike that saves face and allows an exit ramp.

Pahlavi is literally a CIA asset. He has minimal support in Iran right now, but that could change.

That's my thinking -- possibly becoming someone to rally behind and then be dissappointed by.

Annnnnnd......ceasefire? Trump has just announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a cease-fire. No verification from Israel or Iran yet.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

That'd reasonably include Hamas who themselves still have hostages but I'm not holding my breath...

 

[innonimatu]

Seeing as nothing is resolved and Trump has made it an habit of declaring ceasefires he can't enforce, I don't expect the exchanges between Israel and Iran to stop. Israel is the proverbial scorpion, is in its nature now. Barring regime change there, how with their history can the be expected to stop waging war all around the Middle East? Worse, the PM's political and lilely literal life depends on continuing the war.

Iran too cannot afford being depicted has having yelded to pressure. If this is declared a "draw" Iran loses what it needs, deterrence againts renewed attacks from Israel.

The only good thing is that the US may indeed get out of the way rather than escalate, having completed the performative exchange of missiles on empty bases with Iran.For a while, a short one. There too nothing is resolved, Trumopp still has to deal with the neocons' projects and the israeli lobby, they are certainly not sated.

Things are a bit better than they were yesterday but peace is not yer at hand.

 

[Senethro]

Big bunch of untrustworthy parties signing up to and enforcing that ceasefire. If it sticks a week, it might last 3, but I don't expect it to hold until October.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Actually sorta about as well as it could be played by the Iranians. They are frail, presently. American direct pressure is beyond their ability to withstand at almost any level.

But, Trump is placated, and as long as they do not make too much ground towards nukes too fast, will remain placated. They may not be actually able to make ground anyway. It could be the strikes did substantial damage.

Limping away is probably about as good as it is gonna get, if Israel is willing to abandon pursuit.

 

[EvaDK]

Big bunch of untrustworthy parties signing up to and enforcing that ceasefire. If it sticks a week, it might last 3, but I don't expect it to hold until October.

Well, it didn't even last a day.

Israel accuses Iran of violating ceasefire, vows to 'respond forcefully​

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has just issued a statement, saying he has ordered the Israel Defense Forces to "respond forcefully to Iran's violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran".

As a reminder, we haven't seen Iran confirm the attack. Iran's foreign minister said earlier that it would only stop its attacks if Israel did the same.

We're keeping an eye out for any major developments or statements from both sides and will update you as soon as we get them.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt

 

[r16]

the ceasefire was only a Trump statement , don't know if ı read it here but Israel was bombing the Iranian Defence Ministry at the time .

 

[Moriarte]

Another shard of local complexity:

Between the US restoring “maximum pressure” on Iran to deny it a path to nuclear weapons and Israel’s air strikes, a goods train from China quietly arrived at a dry port near Tehran, making the first delivery under the new China-Iran rail corridor project. It had travelled 10,400km (6,500 miles) from the Chinese city of Xian along a trade corridor aimed at slashing delivery times to 15 days, from 30 to 40 days by sea.

This is an ambitious route, traversing Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and may eventually connect to Africa, the Persian Gulf littoral states and Europe. The rail corridor reflects deepening China-Iran ties amid an increasingly fractured and complex geopolitical environment.

Its launch comes as the United States reportedly mulls intercepting and inspecting Iranian oil tankers at sea to cut off its oil sales. For the US and Israel – which see Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat – Tehran’s deeper integration into Eurasian infrastructure is alarming. Critically, it would enable Iran to evade sanctions, bolster its regional influence and advance broader ambitions, including its contentious nuclear programme.

Opinion | Israeli strikes one more challenge for new China-Iran rail corridor

Weeks before the air strikes, a new overland trade route was launched that could help Iran evade sanctions and advance its regional ambitions.

www.scmp.com

 

[r16]

there is this proposal that links India , the Gulf oil sheikdoms , Israel and Cyprus area to pass trade which neatly avoids my country which would have to be the rail bridge as the Poles are set to accept nothing that comes from the direction of Russia , count Ukraine in it for the same purposes , too . Once again revolving about what wayward Germans try to do as their trade gets crushed under brilliant or whatever Anglosaxon moves , meaning the railroads in Iran must now be bombed for forever or something . Perseverance or something , the things those people invent for wartime profits .

 

[amadeus]

Another shard of local complexity:

The cost of shipping on that must be greater than sea bound cargo though. One or both will need to subsidize it either directly or higher costs of goods.

Such is as I am led to believe from what I read cargo costs to be by mode. Could be mistaken though!

 

[EnglishEdward]

Yes, in both cost and speed the rail route falls between the alternatives of air and sea transport arrangements.

 

[r16]

china can keep trading when Indian Pride demands them to search each and every containership sailing from China , for at least a month , searching for drugs or other contraband . Once again an Anglosaxon free road to Germany . Not that their current politicians would dare .

 

[Snowygerry]

He really is an idiot isn't he

Trump ‘very unhappy’ with Israel over violating ceasefire with Iran

Iran denies breaking the ceasefire agreement, while Israel threatens to attack Tehran with ‘intense strikes’.

www.aljazeera.com

US President Donald Trump says Israel and Iran have both violated the ceasefire, but that he was “really unhappy” with Israel. He called on Israel to stop dropping bombs and to “Bring your pilots home, now!”

Trump insists ceasefire remains ‘in effect’​

US President Donald Trump has insisted that the ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains “in effect” in a new post on Truth Social.

“ISRAEL is not going to attack Iran. All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly “Plane Wave” to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!” he wrote.

 

[r16]

this is supreme statesmanship , the best anyone has a right to expect from the political make up of the US after 1967 . And there is no sarcasm in the post , too . Ukranians elsewhere on the web are suggesting they do not demand Israel to destroy global Communism .

 

[Snowygerry]

Best not to conflate global conflicts - if the eternal squabbles of the Middle-East have some unintended positive consequences that will be entirely coincidental.

Common theme is though : Trump is a complete idiot, every one is trying to play him like a fiddle.

 

[amadeus]

Yes, in both cost and speed the rail route falls between the alternatives of air and sea transport arrangements.

In this case from the article it says the train is faster than ship, given that trains can travel faster and over land, whereas any ship leaving China or Iran has to go around India, the straits of Malacca, and around Southeast Asia.

But really I’m over-generalizing because there are other factors in play, like if cargo is going to Teheran (famously not a seaport), it has to still get from the ports to the cities, and I don’t know how good their capacity is in taking in ships, what kinds of freight are coming in—lots of moving parts, all of which I find infinitely fascinating.

From the military point of view, I don’t think it changes all that much because as far as I know nobody is talking about imposing a naval embargo on Iran. If Iran is going to smuggle something in, they’ll manage to do it.