Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[EnglishEdward]

It's not that people voted Remain because they disliked Farage, but that Farage represents what people dislike and distrusted about the Leave campaign.

Fair comment.

The fact that the drummer boy of Brexist is now rattling away for a deranged human-tangerine hybrid seems to prove that, as Arakhor suggested, our suspicions were not unfounded.

I find Nigel Farage entertaining and a genuine character albeit there is no doubt
that he is eccentric, switching between common sense and crank mode, at short
notice; and I can understand why many Remainers might have been concerned
that if voted Leave won he'd be Prime Minister with his finger on the 'nuke' button.

Can we leave the ad hominem arguments out of this? Edward is up at some ungodly hour.

It is midday here in the Philippines, but time for my siesta.

 

[Takhisis]

Indeed. Every man has a right to a siesta after a stiff drink and some fried eggs with bacon.

 

[Agent327]

I find Nigel Farage entertaining and a genuine character albeit there is no doubt
that he is eccentric, switching between common sense and crank mode, at short
notice; and I can understand why many Remainers might have been concerned
that if voted Leave won he'd be Prime Minister with his finger on the 'nuke' button.

That was never going to happen anyway. I don't actually think folks who keep repeating the same things over and over again funny. Jokes get stale. I saw a cartoon the other day where a guy named Brexit enters a labyrinth. Now, this labyrinth was of course well-known. Unfortunately none of the Brexiteers bothered to mention it. Perhaps that was common sense...

 

[bathsheba666]

Countries such as Brazil will sell bananas, coffee and sugar to anyone who will
pay the going rate. There is nothing whimsical about international trade.

The problem is the UK exporting to raise the cash to pay for that.

Countries such as Brazil will have more difficulty selling bananas, coffee, and sugar to countries who already grow this stuff.

Countries such as UK will have difficulty selling financial services to countries perfectly happy to have the banks relocate so they are no longer imports.

The problem is the UK exporting to raise the cash to pay for that.
Thanks for that piercing insight. Then what a shame the we are just about to lose access to a huge market for those services.

You are possibly right here. It would take a great deal of whimsy for Europe to continue to give us access.

Interesting to see a death wish decked out as wannabe micawberish sovereign realism.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Countries such as Brazil will have more difficulty selling bananas, coffee, and sugar to countries who already grow this stuff.

Countries such as UK will have difficulty selling financial services to countries perfectly happy to have the banks relocate so they are no longer imports.

The problem is the UK exporting to raise the cash to pay for that.
Thanks for that piercing insight. Then what a shame the we are just about to lose access to a huge market for those services.

You are possibly right here. It would take a great deal of whimsy for Europe to continue to give us access.

Interesting to see a death wish decked out as wannabe micawberish sovereign realism.

The death wish is sacrificing sovereignty so that those in the financial services
who fleeced us with PPI and demanding money from the bank of England after
the derivatives fraud with sub-prime property blew up, can try to loot others.

 

[Arakhor]

Staying in the EU is just so we can allow big banks to function more greedily? Could you attempt something less hyperbolic?

 

[bathsheba666]

For obvious reasons, I am trying to not tax my interlocutor beyond a single simple example.
Accordingly I thought the largest factor in our forthcoming impoverishment could suffice.

But apparently they want the stable door closed and kept firmly shut.

 

[Verbose]

Well, without the passporting rights for UK financial services, it is possible it partly moves somewhere else in the EU. The other possibility is that the demand itself for them shrinks. It's not as if German politicians automatically have the same regard for a well-functioning financial sector as athe British one, or even understands its uses? In either case, there's likely going to be a contraction, just not necessarily in the UK alone.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I cannot see the UK renouncing to passporting rights for financial services. The economical cost of such a power shift would be too unpredictable. If really put under pressure, I'm even convinced Theresa May would accept to keep freedom of movement if that would ensure her to keep the passporting rights.

The more I think about it, the more I believe negociations will be long and unproductive. The article 5 won't be triggered before december, but then there's a presidential election in France in may 2017 and a federal election in october 2017 in Germany. Granted in the German case, Merkel is favorite though.

Anyhow, I still believe we won't have any serious proposals agreed from both parties before at least a good year. And probably during that gap Europe will be pressured to question itself and the way it works (or fails to work). All this to say that there's a possibility a debate about the EU reform will grow parallel to the Brexit negociations. But would European leaders really have the capacity to grow something good out of this? That's where I'm the most sceptical.

Contrary to what people think, Angela Merkel is NOT pro-EU. She's pro-Germany and that's it, which is good considering she's the German chancellor! I just fail to believe Europe could be able to react faster to crisis as long as its agenda will be only determined by bodies strictly representing national interests. I'm convinced the EU Parliament should be able to propose solutions that would be put on the table of European heads of governement. But countries leaders are so jealous of their power that I have absoluetely no trust on their capacity to accept that.

So we're more than likely stuck in the current position, with a Europe totally unable to solve efficiently the Greek debt crisis or the refugees crisis, with all countries only thinking of their own arses, without realizing that's the best way to lose it all collectively.

Europe is exactly like a co-owned building without a trustee. That's just what it is. Maybe the EU parliament could be that trustee?

 

[Gigaz]

Anyhow, I still believe we won't have any serious proposals agreed from both parties before at least a good year. And probably during that gap Europe will be pressured to question itself and the way it works (or fails to work). All this to say that there's a possibility a debate about the EU reform will grow parallel to the Brexit negociations. But would European leaders really have the capacity to grow something good out of this? That's where I'm the most sceptical.

If we are all very lucky, Hillary Clinton starts a full scale intervention in the Syrian civil war and disposes of Assad. The local situation might calm down enough to resolve the refugee crisis, at which point many Britons will wonder why they wanted a Brexit in the first place.

 

[Verbose]

If we are all very lucky, Hillary Clinton starts a full scale intervention in the Syrian civil war and disposes of Assad. The local situation might calm down enough to resolve the refugee crisis, at which point many Britons will wonder why they wanted a Brexit in the first place.

Nah, Syria and those refugees have nothing much to do with the imigrants that have upset the British public. There aren't really any Syrian refugees in the UK. There the actual EU citizens who have turned up are the problem — Britain likely won't work properly without them, but the British don't want them regardless.

Brexit is more of a sympton of what's out of whack in UK politics than the EU.

 

[Takhisis]

<snipped> Europe is exactly like a co-owned building without a trustee. That's just what it is. Maybe the EU parliament could be that trustee?

Well, as you pointed out, Merkel is out to defend the interests of Germany('s banks) first and if there's anything left it can go to other people. Right now the EU is a halfway thing (e.g. the EU is not a member of the IMF but its individual countries are)

If we are all very lucky, Hillary Clinton starts a full scale intervention in the Syrian civil war and disposes of Assad. The local situation might calm down enough to resolve the refugee crisis, at which point many Britons will wonder why they wanted a Brexit in the first place.

Given that people in Britain England object to Jamaican drug-peddling Yardies, towel-headed Muslims, Polish plumbers and dark-skinned Africans, the only one which will be ‘solved’ by Brexit is Polish plumbers. And that only if Britain does not agree to free movement of people in order to retain access to the common market!

Of course, it was the UK which wanted Polish workers to come over straight away, unlike the governments in other countries which wanted a more gradual incorporation, but you can't blame Britain for the things it does.

 

[innonimatu]

If we are all very lucky, Hillary Clinton starts a full scale intervention in the Syrian civil war and disposes of Assad. The local situation might calm down enough to resolve the refugee crisis, at which point many Britons will wonder why they wanted a Brexit in the first place.

Because american invasions in the Middle East are so good at "calming down" the situation. See Iraq.
Invade Libya also. And Ukraine also. There's plenty further of "stability" for Hillary to spread around Europe, to had to her handywork already in progress.

Brexit is more of a sympton of what's out of whack in UK politics than the EU.

Because the EU, as we all know, is the land of butter and honey where the stress are paved with gold. Where there is no mass youth unemployment, no ongoing ethnic conflicts, no shameless corruption with the eurocrats favoring corporate sponsors against others. Oh no, the EU is paradise, none of this could possibly be happening! It is entirely "in whack", loved by its subjects, who throw flowers in the path of every imperial deputy that deigns to leave Brussels to a visit to the provinces.

I cannot see the UK renouncing to passporting rights for financial services. The economical cost of such a power shift would be too unpredictable. If really put under pressure, I'm even convinced Theresa May would accept to keep freedom of movement if that would ensure her to keep the passporting rights.

Negotiating? The UK can and will just break the EU and negotiate with the remaining pieces. It's only a matter of letting the pieces be in the right place before moving. That is why they're taking their time...

But would European leaders really have the capacity to grow something good out of this? That's where I'm the most sceptical.

"European leaders" will do what political leaders always do when faced with institutionally impossible decisions: preserve their power and let the institutions collapse. Not one of them actually cares about the EU, they care about their careers.

Maybe the EU parliament could be that trustee?

That joke nearly nobody even cares voting for? They're useless. Power rests with the executive branch in times of crisis, with the people who can actually give orders and have bureaucracies (and armies, btw) to follow them. The EP has nothing, they'll just be unceremoniously dumped out of their buildings and offices when the states take them over.

The EU is a "dead man walking". A dead empire walking on the inertia of fear of breaking ranks. All it takes is one good kick for all ranks to break.

Tell me, o europhiles, are you Swedes, French, Spanish, Italians, German... or are you Europeans? What are you willing to do for other European? We saw that in Greece already: threaten them into poverty less they be blocked from trading overnight, their businesses and the political system brought to collapse. Help? Hah! Threats and violence,, only so much "aid" as required to pay back the creditors from other countries. There are no Europeans. There won't be any. There is no nation called Europe, there won't be any.

 

[Old Hippy]

Tell me, o europhiles, are you Swedes, French, Spanish, Italians, German... or are you Europeans? What are you willing to do for other European? We saw that in Greece already: threaten them into poverty less they be blocked from trading overnight, their businesses and the political system brought to collapse. Help? Hah! Threats and violence,, only so much "aid" as required to pay back the creditors from other countries. There are no Europeans. There won't be any. There is no nation called Europe, there won't be any.

the EU never has been a nation, so criticising it for not being one misses the point of what the EU actually is
So if individual countries will not help each other out, lucky for Greece that the EU did, else they would have gone belly up, a choice that was open to them...

 

[Takhisis]

Greece is not exactly belly down.

 

[innonimatu]

The EU most certainly did not help Greece. It lent it just enough money to repay the creditor EU banks, and held (holds) it hostage for the new debts.

It pretends to be a nation, or to aim to be one. In reality it is a platform for the buying and selling of influence by business groups.

 

[Old Hippy]

The EU most certainly did not help Greece. It lent it just enough money to repay the creditor EU banks, and held (holds) it hostage for the new debts.

they did take the money tho, beggars can't be choosy and you made it clear individual countries would not help.

hostage for their old debts actually

 

[Takhisis]

It pretends to be a nation, or to aim to be one. In reality it is a platform for the buying and selling of influence by business groups.

A cynicist would ask what the difference between that and any other state is, and point out that this would mean the EU is closer to statehood than before.

 

[JohannaK]

Inno, you are clearly missing Marla's point that the EP needs to be empowered as a step towards making the Union meaningful. Arguing that the only directly elected EU body is irrelevant to someone saying it needs to be made relevant simply does not work.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Tell me, o europhiles, are you Swedes, French, Spanish, Italians, German... or are you Europeans? What are you willing to do for other European? We saw that in Greece already: threaten them into poverty less they be blocked from trading overnight, their businesses and the political system brought to collapse. Help? Hah! Threats and violence,, only so much "aid" as required to pay back the creditors from other countries. There are no Europeans. There won't be any. There is no nation called Europe, there won't be any.

Not only Europe is not a nation, but it doesn't even need to be one.

Europe should have no other objective than to handle our shared interests, precisely like a co-ownership. As the owner of a single appartment in a building, it's in your interests that the elevator works, the common stairs are clean, the roof doesn't leak, the trash are collected properly, and the main building entrance is secure. That's just it.