Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Verbose]

There's just this wrangle over how to manage that best... What do we need, and how much of it?

Since the EU might still be at risk of ending up the largest "tragedy of the commons" in history.

 

[Arakhor]

A cynicist ...

What would the cynic do?

 

[Marla_Singer]

There's just this wrangle over how to manage that best... What do we need, and how much of it?

It's interesting in this regard to have a look about how Europe was managed over time since the EU history isn't as linear as some might think.


1951-1973: opening markets and reconciliation

In the post-war era, European countries pushed for a reconstruction of their economy based in opening successively some specific markets: coal, steel, atomic energy, agriculture.

This was fully lead by national heads of governments and ministers such as Adenauer, de Gasperi, Monnet and Schumann, with the double objective to promote reconciliation in tightening our bonds and to redevellop countries which were then very late compared especially to the United States. We were for sure in a very different period of History compared to nowadays.


1973-2001: economical integration

After the large success of the markets opening, French and German leaders especially pushed for a very ambitious plan of economical integration. It started with the UK entry in the EEC, but it moved much further than that: creation of the European Parliament, strengthening of the European commission able to propose plans to be submitted to national leaders, creation of the single market, the Schenghen area and the single currency.

This period was both the pinnacle of Europhilia and the beginning of its end. This was indeed the golden age of Eurocrats, the President of the Commission being nominated and having massive power to determine the European strategy (but still with the required consent of country leaders). And meanwhile, it's also the period of a massive economical slowdown which has lead to the first European crisis. Indeed, establishing the single currency has lead to the first tensions between countries, especially regarding monetary policy.


2001-nowadays: the return of nation states

The lesson taught by the difficulties to implement the single currency, and more precisely the Maastricht criteria, has lead Schröder and Chirac to reduce the influence of the European commission in order to better control it. The enlargement to the east was used as an opportunity to massively reshape European institutions, and especially the commission, which became more centered in defending national interests (one commissioner per country) than the common European interests.

The failure of the European Constitution has also marked the end of the European dynamic. And once Schröder decided with the opportunistic consent of Chirac to disrespect Maastricht criteria, it made it clear that national leaders were taking back control over past European commitments.

This evolution never ended to grow. After the success of Agenda 2010 in Germany, Angela Merkel was leading a country completely dominating Europe economically speaking. This, together with the strengthening of national leaders over European institutions, has totally destabilized the balance of power in Europe.

The debt crisis, and later on the refugees crisis, have proven a total lack of goodwill among European leaders to try pushing forward a quick solution to curb those issues at a European scale. Merkel signing a deal with Erdogan on refugees, without even giving notice to its European partners about it, has marked the pinnacle of this evolution.

The Brexit is clearly the direct result of this evolution. Europe has proven itself unable to master crisis, and the power of Merkel on determining the European agenda according to the only German interests has seriously questionned the purpose of Europe as an institution. Yet, we all see clearly that not only a full dissolution of the EU would be extremely difficult to implement, but it wouldn't even solve the incapacity of our countries to solve shared crisis.


And tomorrow ?

I have seriously no clue where Europe is heading to, and considering Merkel is heavy favourite to win again the German federal elections in october 2017, there is a strong chance there won't be any significant change before several years.

Nevertheless, a majority of both pro-Europeans and Eurosceptics agree that Europe is currently dysfunctional. How this will be managed? Only time will tell.

 

[SMcM]

Merkel is heavy favourite to win again the German federal elections in october 2017, there is a strong chance there won't be any significant change before several years.

Well, according to wikipedia that lead is still falling:

We surely can't be certain about where CDU popularity will be by next October.

Looks like Petry is still on the rise. I don't suppose AfD will be popular enough to be a major contender in 2017 though. I don't really know a lot about Petry, so I could be poorly informed, but she looks pretty scary to me.

 

[uppi]

Well, according to wikipedia that lead is still falling:

The decrease in poll numbers is correlated with an increase for the AfD. For this election I expect that the AfD will (have to) oppose any coalition that might form. I also cannot see that the FDP and the Linke being in the same coalition. Together CDU, AfD and FDP/Linke will block any possible coalition that does not contain the CDU, so whoever leads the CDU is likely to become the next chancellor.

The only real danger to Merkel (and the reason she has not announced yet, whether she is going to run) is a possible rebellion of the CSU.

edit: or a brilliant campaign of the SPD, but somehow I doubt that.
edit2: to Merkel, of course

 

[Takhisis]

Danger of or to Merkel?

What would the cynic do?

I don't know that.

*AAAAAAAAA*

 

[Oerdin]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1130GB

Germany is still talking about punishing the UK for daring to say no to them. The US needs to come out very forcefully and declare the UK's interests are the US's vital national interests and any threat to the UK's economy is a direct threat to the US's vital national interests. If the EU closes free trade with the UK then the US will close most trade with the EU, we will close off international capital markets, we will lock them out of the credit clearing system and the international banking system. The message needs to be extremely forceful and clear that the arrogant Eurocrats in Brussels either back down from their threats or their economies are going to be sent spiraling into depression and half of Europe will have a debt crisis.

I hope cooler heads provail and the stutus quo is more or less maintained but the idea that they can punish the UK must be dealt with extremely harshly and they must be made to realize nothing but suicide lies down that path.

 

[Takhisis]

Suicide? How? Punishing Greece for daring to allow their people to break the lie was successful, don't you think?

 

[Gigaz]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN1130GB

Germany is still talking about punishing the UK for daring to say no to them. The US needs to come out very forcefully and declare the UK's interests are the US's vital national interests and any threat to the UK's economy is a direct threat to the US's vital national interests. If the EU closes free trade with the UK then the US will close most trade with the EU, we will close off international capital markets, we will lock them out of the credit clearing system and the international banking system. The message needs to be extremely forceful and clear that the arrogant Eurocrats in Brussels either back down from their threats or their economies are going to be sent spiraling into depression and half of Europe will have a debt crisis.

I hope cooler heads provail and the stutus quo is more or less maintained but the idea that they can punish the UK must be dealt with extremely harshly and they must be made to realize nothing but suicide lies down that path.

That sounds like a not very smart strategy.
The US could instead come out very forcefully and declare that Europe's and the UK's economic wellbeing are the US's national interests. If Britain leaves the EU, the US will close most trade with the UK, close off international markets and lock them out of the credit clearing and international market.

 

[Takhisis]

Almost as if the UK had defaulted on its debts.

 

[Oerdin]

Specifically, without access to capital markets in the US, UK, and Japan (especially the US) several EU countries would not be able to roll over their national debts causing a series of sovereign debt crisis that the remaining EU member states cannot handle on their own. This would likely cause the euto to fail and cause a depression in Europe.

I do not want to see this threat used but a creditable threat must be on the table to show the arrogant eurocrats that a game of hardball will not end in their favor. They can either deal fairly with the UK maintaining free trade with minimal requirements or they can see their currency and economies get hurt extremely badly. Then let them make the choice.

 

[Gigaz]

Specifically, without access to capital markets in the US, UK, and Japan (especially the US) several EU countries would not be able to roll over their national debts causing a series of sovereign debt crisis that the remaining EU member states cannot handle on their own. Thiz would likely cause the euto to fail and cause a depression in Europe.

I do not want to see this threat used but a creditBle threat must be on the table to show the arrogant eurocrats that a game of hardball will not end in their favor. They can eithet deal fairly with tge UK maontaining free trade with minimal requirements or they can see their currency and economies get hurt extremely badly. Then let them make the choice.

The US does not want the EU to fragment, and they definitely care more about their economic and political ties to the continental EU than to Britain. There is not a single good reason for the US to be on UK's side in this.

 

[Oerdin]

I can think of one which would sell very well to the American electorate, namely, that the UK is the US's oldest ally, that we share a language and cultural ties which can never be broken and that the EU is the aggressor threatening to punish the UK for exerting its legitimate democratic rights. That is completely unacceptable to the United States, violates our vital national interests, and so is utterly intolerable the the US government. The arrogant Eurocrates can either stop threatening the stability of the international order or suffer the consequences of their actions including default and economic depression.

I am willing to bet that after such a forceful declaration by the US the faction demanding the UK be punished will suddenly shut up and crawl back into a dark corner where they belong. Such bullies need to be dealt with in a severe manner.

 

[Takhisis]

OTOH I don't think anyone in the US except a handful of maniacs wants to pander to the Faradge/Drumpf duo. ‘Take your country back’ is not a very popular slogan.

 

[JohannaK]

Older than France? I would add Spain, but clearly the US doesnt give a damn about old allies, because it went to war with it.

Not to mention that 'punishing' the UK means 'showing the UK what it is actually like to leave the EU', which is exactly what the UK citizens voted for.

 

[Takhisis]

And Morocco, Joan. Never forget Morocco.

 

[Gigaz]

I can think of one which would sell very well to the American electorate, namely, that the UK is the US's oldest ally, that we share a language and cultural ties which can never be broken and that the EU is the aggressor tgreatening to punish the UK for exerting its legitimate democrtic rights. That is completely unacceptable to the United States, violates our vital national interests, and so is utterly intolerable the the US government. The arrogant Eurocrates can either stop threatening the stability of the international order or suffer the consequences of their actions.

I am willing to bet that after such a forceful declaration by the US the faction demanding the UK be pubished will suddenly shut up and crawl back into a dark corner where they belong.

This is not about selling stuff to the American electorate, this is about long-term strategy and relative importance of US allies.
Noone is aggressing the UK or punishing it for anything. The UK wants to leave and that's fine. But the rest of Europe seeks its advantages and they can make any deal with the UK that they want.
When someone occupies Scotland with little green men and Angela Merkel says it's ours now, that is punishing the UK for exerting its legitimate democratic rights.

 

[Old Hippy]

I can think of one which would sell very well to the American electorate, namely, that the UK is the US's oldest ally, that we share a language and cultural ties which can never be broken and that the EU is the aggressor threatening to punish the UK for exerting its legitimate democratic rights. That is completely unacceptable to the United States, violates our vital national interests, and so is utterly intolerable the the US government. The arrogant Eurocrates can either stop threatening the stability of the international order or suffer the consequences of their actions including default and economic depression.

I am willing to bet that after such a forceful declaration by the US the faction demanding the UK be pubished will suddenly shut up and crawl back into a dark corner where they belong. The bullies need to be dealt with in a severe manner.

so the way to deal with a bully is to become a bully
diplomacy might work better

the EU and its member countries have a duty to look after their own interests first if they happen to be in the UK interest all well and good but that is purely secondary

 

[AdrienIer]

the UK is the US's oldest ally

It's literally its oldest enemy. If the US electorate really thinks that the US needs to rethink its education system

Why the US would care about the EU signing a deal very unfavorable to the UK instead of one that is against its own interest, is beyond me.

 

[Lohrenswald]

I don't see how Britain being outside of EU would lead to USA getting much more unfavourable deals from EU or whatever