It really isn't that cryptic. After all, do you think grammar is known to cockneys?
Is Britain about to leave the EU?
- Thread starter Mega Tsunami
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It really isn't that cryptic. After all, do you think grammar is known to cockneys?
EnglishEdward
Deity
Regarding this black hole.
IIRC George Osborne said in 2010 he was going to eliminate the UK public expenditure deficit by 2015.
I did not believe him then, and lo and behold! he did not eliminate the deficit in time for the 2015 election.
He then said in 2015 he would eliminate the deficit by 2020.
I did not believe him then either, and I simply concluded that his growth estimates were spuriously high and indeed
had been very much manufactured for the sole purpose of producing that claim of no more deficit by 2020.
Now spreadsheet Phil Hammond has revised growth downwards claiming that the revision is due to Brexit.
As a Remainer and a conservative, it is no doubt easier for Phil to blame Brexit than to accuse his precessor of false accounting.
Now the UK public expenditure deficit will continue through 2020 according to Phil's plan, but IMHO the main reason for this is
the apparent inability for the conservatives to walk away from their uncosted promises of reducing corporation tax again.
And raising the 20% and 40% income tax thresholds has not helped either.
The fact is that if one wants a balanced budget and good quality public services including benefits, NHS and pensions etc; an
appropriate level of taxes is needed. The Germans and their government know this, UK and USA governments/people do not.
I believe that if we had not voted Leave, George Osborne would likewise be revising his estimates, perhaps not now, but in a year or so.
IIRC George Osborne said in 2010 he was going to eliminate the UK public expenditure deficit by 2015.
I did not believe him then, and lo and behold! he did not eliminate the deficit in time for the 2015 election.
He then said in 2015 he would eliminate the deficit by 2020.
I did not believe him then either, and I simply concluded that his growth estimates were spuriously high and indeed
had been very much manufactured for the sole purpose of producing that claim of no more deficit by 2020.
Now spreadsheet Phil Hammond has revised growth downwards claiming that the revision is due to Brexit.
As a Remainer and a conservative, it is no doubt easier for Phil to blame Brexit than to accuse his precessor of false accounting.
Now the UK public expenditure deficit will continue through 2020 according to Phil's plan, but IMHO the main reason for this is
the apparent inability for the conservatives to walk away from their uncosted promises of reducing corporation tax again.
And raising the 20% and 40% income tax thresholds has not helped either.
The fact is that if one wants a balanced budget and good quality public services including benefits, NHS and pensions etc; an
appropriate level of taxes is needed. The Germans and their government know this, UK and USA governments/people do not.
I believe that if we had not voted Leave, George Osborne would likewise be revising his estimates, perhaps not now, but in a year or so.
Silurian
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I agree that Hammond has an incentive to carry out a kitchen sinking exercise.
The election of Trump could also have a negative effect on world trade and so the UK GDP.
But the Brexiteers were not campaigning that there would be a fall in growth for the most part. People who said that were called project fear.
Farage did say on BBC radio 4 World at One about two years ago that he thought a possible fall in growth would be a reasonable price to pay for regaining sovereignty.
Silurian
Deity
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720p/hour to 750p/hour is a 4% rise
Still, sarcasm aside:
Every household will lose £1,250 a year because of Brexit, says Institute for Fiscal Studies
The respected think tank also warns that working families will be hit hardest by a referendum-induced slump in earnings - with pensioners protected
Every household will lose a staggering £1,250 a year because of the Brexit vote, independent forecasters say – as they painted a devastating picture of falling living standards, including no increase in real wages for at least another decade.
The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) also warned that working families will be hit hardest by the unprecedented slump, with pensioners better protected.
Workers will suffer because of an expected 3.7 per cent fall in real earnings by the start of the next decade, compared with the pre-referendum forecast.
Crucially, the ultra-gloomy prediction only takes into account the uncertainty triggered by the June result – not the effect of any eventual Brexit deal, which is mired in confusion.
(click link above to continue)
Right at the end of the article, it's mentioned that there'd still be more ‘austerity’ required. Yay!The respected think tank also warns that working families will be hit hardest by a referendum-induced slump in earnings - with pensioners protected
Every household will lose a staggering £1,250 a year because of the Brexit vote, independent forecasters say – as they painted a devastating picture of falling living standards, including no increase in real wages for at least another decade.
The respected Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) also warned that working families will be hit hardest by the unprecedented slump, with pensioners better protected.
Workers will suffer because of an expected 3.7 per cent fall in real earnings by the start of the next decade, compared with the pre-referendum forecast.
Crucially, the ultra-gloomy prediction only takes into account the uncertainty triggered by the June result – not the effect of any eventual Brexit deal, which is mired in confusion.
(click link above to continue)
Silurian
Deity
- Joined
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From Wiki
"The Australasian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP) is a car safety performance assessment programme based in Australia and founded in 1993. ANCAP specialises in the crash testing of automobiles sold in Australia and the publishing of these results for the benefit of consumers. ANCAP provides consumers with transparent advice and information on the level of occupant and pedestrian protection provided by different vehicle models in the most common types of crashes, as well as their ability—through technology—to avoid a crash."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australasian_New_Car_Assessment_Program
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
And the fact that about 11% of the income of the IFS comes from the EU has, I am sure, no bearing whatsoever on their report.
The point is though, we heard all this negativity from Osborne (remember him) and it didn’t work before the referendum and it won’t work now.
Negative reports and warnings about what might happen unless you do as you are told didn’t work in Scotland, didn’t work in Brexit, didn’t work in the US and won’t work now.
Compare and contrast that doom and gloom with the more positive comeback from the Brexiteers. I know which one wins more votes.
(Perhaps the fact that Remainers actually have nothing positive to say about the EU is the main problem for them.)
From the Mail:
Britain will benefit from a £32billion ‘Brexit dividend’ when it no longer has to send cash to Brussels, official forecasts reveal.
In an explosive open letter today, a cross party group of MPs – led by Michael Gove – reignites one of the most bitter rows of the referendum campaign by demanding much of the cash is poured into the NHS.
The claim by Vote Leave that quitting the EU would allow the UK to ‘take back control’ of billions of pounds was one of the key battlegrounds in the June 23 contest.
The Remain camp furiously contested the claims.
Since losing the referendum, they have repeatedly demanded to know where the extra money for the Health Service is.
Now, tucked away in the back of this week’s Autumn Statement, a forecast has emerged showing that Britain is expected to stop tipping any money into the Brussels coffers in 2019-20.
It states that the total gross savings – not counting the UK’s rebate – from no longer having to pay into the EU budget are over £16billion every year, amounting to a total of £50.7billion over three years following Brexit.
The Government has already pledged to spend some of these savings, in order to match all EU funding for farmers and science. But, according to the Change Britain group led by Mr Gove, this still leaves a net contribution of more than £10billion a year, that ministers can now invest in other things – like the NHS.
Over the course of three years, the pot is worth £31.9billion – or around £200million a week – according to the campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-EU-Gove-MPs-demanding-money-poured-NHS.html
The point is though, we heard all this negativity from Osborne (remember him) and it didn’t work before the referendum and it won’t work now.
Negative reports and warnings about what might happen unless you do as you are told didn’t work in Scotland, didn’t work in Brexit, didn’t work in the US and won’t work now.
Compare and contrast that doom and gloom with the more positive comeback from the Brexiteers. I know which one wins more votes.
(Perhaps the fact that Remainers actually have nothing positive to say about the EU is the main problem for them.)
From the Mail:
Britain will benefit from a £32billion ‘Brexit dividend’ when it no longer has to send cash to Brussels, official forecasts reveal.
In an explosive open letter today, a cross party group of MPs – led by Michael Gove – reignites one of the most bitter rows of the referendum campaign by demanding much of the cash is poured into the NHS.
The claim by Vote Leave that quitting the EU would allow the UK to ‘take back control’ of billions of pounds was one of the key battlegrounds in the June 23 contest.
The Remain camp furiously contested the claims.
Since losing the referendum, they have repeatedly demanded to know where the extra money for the Health Service is.
Now, tucked away in the back of this week’s Autumn Statement, a forecast has emerged showing that Britain is expected to stop tipping any money into the Brussels coffers in 2019-20.
It states that the total gross savings – not counting the UK’s rebate – from no longer having to pay into the EU budget are over £16billion every year, amounting to a total of £50.7billion over three years following Brexit.
The Government has already pledged to spend some of these savings, in order to match all EU funding for farmers and science. But, according to the Change Britain group led by Mr Gove, this still leaves a net contribution of more than £10billion a year, that ministers can now invest in other things – like the NHS.
Over the course of three years, the pot is worth £31.9billion – or around £200million a week – according to the campaign.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-EU-Gove-MPs-demanding-money-poured-NHS.html
Since speaking for all Leavers is explicitly forbidden in this thread (by Leavers, no less!), be so good as to refrain from the reverse, especially when you're wrong.
Does the Daily Fail really have nothing better to do than 'report' on all the old lies as if they're suddenly news once more?
Mega Tsunami
Emperor
FYI I voted Remain.
And I was referring to the world at large, not just here.
If you bothered to read the report, you will have seen that the Mail was just referring to something hidden in this week’s Autumn statement.
I read the eleven lines you quoted and I'm well aware of that. I don't see how that changes anything I wrote, given that it's a rendition of "Brexit money will leave us better off" by Michael Gove's crowd again.
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