Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[Lexicus]

The claim that free trade is impossible without open borders is nonsense and it needs to be made clear that such lies will not be tolerated.

On the contrary, if you don't have open borders you can't call it 'free trade.' You are free to call it "the global capitalist class colluding in the exploitation of an imprisoned proletariat" though because that's what it is.

Of course, your hypocrisy is multidimensional. The UK's voters were the ones who opened this can of worms. Now you've made your bed but you don't want to lie in it.

 

[Kyriakos]

The countries that win by free trade are those geared towards mass exports and not having primary materials, so i am for tariffs, cause i want to see the fireworks over the Rhine
At least this time a square mustache won't do much, due to nukes.

 

[Arakhor]

You keep acting like Germany's jilted boyfriend, Kyriakos. Might I suggest a little distance?

 

[Takhisis]

I very much hope Trump declares unlimited support for the UK and promises sanctions against any state which votes against continued free trade with the UK.

Make it clear that their attempts at economic warfare will not be tolerated and that the US and UK stand united against anyone who would attempt to economically harm the other. The claim that free trade is impossible without open borders is nonsense and it needs to be made clear that such lies will not be tolerated.

Attempts at economic warfare will not be tolerated and will be ‘sanctioned’, i.e. solved by… economic warfare. The old B-52 meme will have ‘democracy’ crossed out and replaced with ‘52’, right?

Since you're so in favour of free trade, are you for abolition of all subsidies and tax breaks to US industry and agriculture?

 

[Kyriakos]

You keep acting like Germany's jilted boyfriend, Kyriakos. Might I suggest a little distance?

Says the person from the country voting itself out of the Eu despite not suffering as we do.

 

[Oerdin]

Honestly, just the threat will be good enough to get them to cave.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Honestly, just the threat will be good enough to get them to cave.

I don't think so. Trump can try to put pressure on Europe, but trade embargoes would cost a lot of rich and powerful people in the USA -people who are already concerned about his comments on NAFTA an China- a lot of money.
Adding that on top just to "help" the UK is a political assassination wating to happen.

 

[Verbose]

Funny this, when the US idea about the EU is that it's some kind of common good for everyone.

But then, that's how EVERYONE thinks about the EU — total utter rubbish when consciously thought about, except unconsciously so highly desirable the Americans can't even begin to think straight about the prospect of not having it around. (Except its par for the course that conservative Americans hate western Europe anyway. Not clear why. They just do.)

And yet the EU requires maintenance. To quote the recently resigned UK ambassador to the EU: "Free trade doesn't just happen."

Americans demanding free trade when they've elected a president who is anti-free trade, AND when the global trade volumes are already declining — indicating we have ALREADY entered a new era of protectionist trade policies — is kinda' rich.

 

[Takhisis]

Honestly, just the threat will be good enough to get them to cave.

The threat of what is going to bet who to cave on what?
And how?

 

[Gigaz]

Donald Trumps main agenda is America First so anyone who thinks that he'd help any country out of the goodness of his heart should think again. A hard Brexit is a golden opportunity for the USA and continental Europe to grab market shares currently owned by the UK, or to extort favors from the UK in exchange for free trade. I would guess that this is the sort opportunity for a deal which is Donald Trumps speciality. Think vulture and rotting corpse.

 

[Arakhor]

Says the person from the country voting itself out of the Eu despite not suffering as we do.

Unbelievably, I am not a representative of the 51.9% of the UK electorate who bothered to do their democratic duty in June last year. As such, I'm being taken for a ride as much as (if not more than) you, if I am to interpret your posts kindly.

 

[Kyriakos]

Unbelievably, I am not a representative of the 51.9% of the UK electorate who bothered to do their democratic duty in June last year. As such, I'm being taken for a ride as much as (if not more than) you, if I am to interpret your posts kindly.

Don't be so sour about it, m8. For some of us this is a real crisis, so maybe keep some perspective.

 

[Arakhor]

If Britons had been 'keeping some perspective', Brexit would never have happened, and if you were 'keeping some perspective', you wouldn't sound like Germany's jilted lover.

 

[really]

Greece is forecast to have higher growth, lower inflation and a lower deficit than the UK this year and next.

Unemployment is falling in Greece and rising in the UK.

Greece has a way to go on unemployment, income and debt but it is going in the right direction.

The UK is going the wrong way.

Who knows if the UK is a success outside the EU it could be a model for Greece to follow allowing it to throw off the yoke of European oppression.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Kyriakos, I suggest you merely ignore him by not responding - the references to jilted lover confirms his inability to debate the issue.

I regard Greece as an EU province that has been mugged by the banks.

 

[Arakhor]

Coming from someone with the seemingly inability to address me as an actual person (rather than the anthropomorphic representation of the Remain campaign), that's somewhat rich.

 

[HAND]

Greece would have been better off leaving the Euro and devaluing, there's no doubt about that. Yes, it would have been rocky ride in the near term, but Greek exports would have rocketed and Greek tourism would have exploded with a devalued Drachma, other sectors would have eventually picked up too.

France also would benefit from going back to the Franc, but obviously there's no EU without France. Without a Eurobonds/collective Eurozone debt arrangement (if Merkel stays in power in other words), the only way the Eurozone can really thrive is to have Germany leave the Euro and the Euro can then devalue, but this again, is unlikely.

Just on the UK, unemployment has been falling and is currently at 5.4%. In France unemployment is at 10.5%:

https://www.google.co.uk/publicdata...&ifdim=country_group&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

 

[Mega Tsunami]

This is interesting, and will no doubt be mentioned in the forthcoming Brexit discussions with the EU:

According to the Governor of the bank of England, Mark Carney, the UK is effectively the EU’s Investment Banker and as such, the EU would suffer most from a so-called ‘Hard Brexit’.

From Forbes:
Bank Of England's Mark Carney - Hard Brexit's A Problem For The EU, Not Britain
This is an interesting argument being put forward by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. The risks to financial stability of a hard Brexit really lie with the countries remaining in the European Union, not with Britain which is leaving. It's also not just an interesting argument it looks like a good and true one too. The essence of it is that London is the financial centre for Europe, as it was a century ago, and being cut off from the financial centre of the economy is not going to be good news for the EU countries.
Sure, not selling financial services into Europe isn't going to be all that fun but there's still the rest of the world out there. However, being cut off from those financial services would be very much less fun that not being able to sell them. Think of it this way--imagine a country dependent upon imported food (say, Venezuela as is today). What's worse, the exporters losing that market or the people not having food?
Quite--and what's worse, not having financial services or not being able to sell them in a specific place?

The Bank of England will upgrade its UK growth forecast next month, Mark Carney has signalled as he warned that Brexit could trigger a worse financial crisis on the Continent than in Britain.


The rest here:

Spoiler :

Now, of course, new arrangements would grow up if British financial services became unavailable on the continent. Or access was restricted through a lack of passporting and all that. But that transition just would not be a happy time:
"I am not saying there are not financial stability risks in the UK, and there are economic risks to the UK, but there are greater short term risks on the continent in the transition than there are in the UK," he said.

How much of Europe's financial market is actually in London is impressive:

The Governor stressed the reliance of European households, governments, corporations and banks on the City.

“If you rely on a jurisdiction for half of your lending [and] half of your securities transactions you should think very carefully about transition from where you are today to where you will be tomorrow,” he said.
Sure, we can imagine some to all of that trading moving over time. After all, it has gravitated to London over recent decades. But transitions are not easy times:

First, the UK's financial services sector provides 75% of foreign exchange trading for the EU, 75% of all hedging products (which help businesses insure against risk when making investments or buying products) and supports half of all lending.
As he said in November, the UK is Europe's "investment banker".
A sharp break in that liquidity and capacity support could be detrimental to financial stability in the EU.
Alex Brazier, the executive director for financial stability at the Bank, said that the UK exports £26bn of financial services to the EU, and imports just £3bn.

As I keep insisting it is imports which are the point of trade, imports which make us richer. Thus it's that £26 billion (call it $30 billion among friends) of value which the continentals would lose if Brexit meant being cut off from London's financial markets.

At which point of course Carney is right here. It's entirely true that we wouldn't like it very much if we weren't able to make those exports. But it's the people who won't be getting financial services who will have the real problem. A hard Brexit is more of a danger to Europe than to Britain.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...-problem-for-the-eu-not-britain/#4e8fed42192e

 

[AdrienIer]

So if I understand this right english people eat financial services ? Does it taste good ? Or was it just a crappy analogy ?

 

[Arakhor]

I wonder how many people will start citing Mark Carney as an 'expert' once more, now that his words can be portrayed as sympathetic to the Leave cause.