Is Britain about to leave the EU?

[dutchfire]

I've seen people call it the Hillary '08 option.

So be careful if you had ambitions for the post of British Consul in Benghazi

 

[Martin Alvito]

Boris Johnson as Foreign Secretary? Now that's quite the olive branch.

Quite the statement to the EU, too.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Does that mean he'll be in charge of the negotiations on the British side ?

Boris Johnson, Certainly not!


Boris Johnson is merely in charge of being affable, smiling, shaking hands,
telling jokes and then moving on to the next country before they tire of him.

David Davies is in charge of Brexit negotiations (with EU)

and

Liam Fox is international trade minister (with everyone else).

This even seems vaguely sensible.


The interesting thing is Phillip Hammond replacing George Osborne as Chancellor.

I hope that Theresa and Phil will be less fond of licking the backsides
of the plutocrats than the chuckle brothers (David and George).


For Boris, it is more of:

Scientist: SETI project have discovered intelligent life in Andromeda
Theresa: on your bike Boris!

 

[Takhisis]

To quote the Graun's comment board:

<deleted> Boris <deleted> Johnson, what the <deleted> <deleted> is going on with this <deleted> country​

Seriously, Theresa? I thought you were in the Remain camp.

No offense, but the UK has no "demands" to make. Nor does the EU, for that matter. One should aim for leniency, and it would appear that might be in the offing, as it is in the interest of both parties.

‘Leniency’? If the EU simply punishes countries for leaving or trying to leave, all they will do is stir up anger. It would be very unproductive.

 

[Agent327]

Which would be my point when saying leniency is in the interest of both parties.

Meanwhile it's quite interesting how peoples' expressions can change once they suddenly find themselves Minister in Her Majesty's government:

I’ve no doubt Theresa will make an excellent Prime Minister and I'm encouraged that she's made it clear that Brexit means Brexit.

as tweeted by Boris Johnson, soon to be Foreign Minister in the cabinet of Theresa May, Conservative leader.

 

[Takhisis]

The Conservatives are always a bit behind the times, but her acting as if it were still the first day of April does not help things.

 

[Gigaz]

‘Leniency’? If the EU simply punishes countries for leaving or trying to leave, all they will do is stir up anger. It would be very unproductive.

The EU will not punish Britain simply for trying to leave, but if it has something to gain economically by hurting Britain, now that's a completely different matter.

 

[Takhisis]

Ah, yes&#8230; how would it gain by hurting other countries? Britain is not Greece.

 

[Gigaz]

Ah, yes… how would it gain by hurting other countries? Britain is not Greece.

Many companies are expected to or planning to move their headquarters or much of their production to the EU if the export from Britain to the EU becomes too difficult. In this case the EU country would earn more taxes and company profits which would otherwise go to Britain. So I would expect that many EU countries will want that, when they have the opportunity.

 

[GoodSarmatian]

The EU has a superior position when negotiating pretty much everything with Britain. "Hurting Britain" -i.e. making Britain worse off than it is now- is just an inevitable side effect.

 

[really]

For all the talk about negotiations being amicable the EU collectively and the members individually will be looking out for themselves.

The UK isn't really a partner anymore and it isn't a rival - it is somewhere in between.

 

[HAND]

To quote the Graun's comment board:

<deleted> Boris <deleted> Johnson, what the <deleted> <deleted> is going on with this <deleted> country​

Seriously, Theresa? I thought you were in the Remain camp.

&#8216;Leniency&#8217;? If the EU simply punishes countries for leaving or trying to leave, all they will do is stir up anger. It would be very unproductive.

I've heard Theresa May was a secret leaver along with a number of others in the Cabinet. She remained loyal to David Cameron during the referendum campaign but kept a low profile avoiding awkward questions.

 

[dutchfire]

It was founded to be capitalist, that's not necessarily the same as "right-wing". All modern states are capitalist in structure, even the ones with red flags. As far as I can see, the EU is only really different insofar as major left-wings cause like education and health-care provision have been mostly reserved to the member states.

At the same time, the EU does not have an army, intelligence service, police service, prions or court system*, so traditional right-wing night-watchman state philosophy is also still in the hands of the member states.

And a nit-pick: The Erasmus+ education programme is rather substantial.

* There are the high European courts, of course, but they're courts of last resort. There's no equivalent to the US district and circuit courts.

 

[Agent327]

The EU has a superior position when negotiating pretty much everything with Britain. "Hurting Britain" -i.e. making Britain worse off than it is now- is just an inevitable side effect.

No, it isn't. If only for the simple reason that EU-UK trade will still be substantial. Both parties have an interest in 'amicability' so as not to further sour relations. As intended PM May stated, the UK's intention is to maintain as close relations with the EU as possible. While there were mentions of 'punishing' the UK for its decision, actual public statements in the EU have tended to be in the same vein.

 

[Lillefix]

No, it isn't. If only for the simple reason that EU-UK trade will still be substantial. Both parties have an interest in 'amicability' so as not to further sour relations. As intended PM May stated, the UK's intention is to maintain as close relations with the EU as possible. While there were mentions of 'punishing' the UK for its decision, actual public statements in the EU have tended to be in the same vein.

I don't think they plan to punish Britain, but the promises that were made by certain Brexit politicians will be impossible to hold. They will never get access to the single market without open borders for example.

Britain has now an extremely advantageous position(in British eyes) compared to the rest of the member states(they're not in Schengen, they're not in the Euro and they have a rebate). They will probably get a worse deal now. That might be characterized as punishment by some.

 

[Verbose]

The UK will not be actively rewarded by the EU &#8212; seems about the size of it...

 

[Arakhor]

Clearly not. We were already the recipient of various benefits and the various EU states are never going to just hand over even more simply because we've said we're going to leave, at some point, in the unspecified future, but we're definitely leaving!

 

[Takhisis]

Many companies are expected to or planning to move their headquarters or much of their production to the EU if the export from Britain to the EU becomes too difficult. In this case the EU country would earn more taxes and company profits which would otherwise go to Britain. So I would expect that many EU countries will want that, when they have the opportunity.

It's not unreasonable to speculate with that, given the circumstances.

The EU has a superior position when negotiating pretty much everything with Britain. "Hurting Britain" -i.e. making Britain worse off than it is now- is just an inevitable side effect.

Ah, well, now it's everyone for himself, of course. But side effects aren't the same as seekign to apply what would be sanctions in all but name.

I've heard Theresa May was a secret leaver along with a number of others in the Cabinet. She remained loyal to David Cameron during the referendum campaign but kept a low profile avoiding awkward questions.

A few thousand posts ago we had that post, certainly, where it was explained how a man who didn't want Brexit started a referendum, one who didn't want Brexit led the campaign, and the woman who did want Brexit campaigned against it, amongst others. All that has to be added is that the shy Brexiteer is now the Prime Minister and that she has lost all credibility she might have had with her new cabinet.

 

[Agent327]

That doesn't follow. But perhaps you'd have preferred Nigel Farage to lead Britain into Brexit? I'm sure that would lead to the most wonderful result.

I don't think they plan to punish Britain, but the promises that were made by certain Brexit politicians will be impossible to hold. They will never get access to the single market without open borders for example.

Britain has now an extremely advantageous position(in British eyes) compared to the rest of the member states(they're not in Schengen, they're not in the Euro and they have a rebate). They will probably get a worse deal now. That might be characterized as punishment by some.

Whereas, in fact, it is simply the result of a Brexit. Funny what can happen when you entrust important matters to people who have no clue what important matters are. (To wit: someone noted that the most googled in Britain the day after the referendum was: 'What is EU?') Well, at least Cameron knows that now.

 

[Takhisis]

&#8216;Not being Nigel Farage&#8217; is a good thing now? Boris Johnson is now in charge of the UK's foreign relations. The same who said Barack Obama hated the UK because he was &#8216;part-Kenyan&#8217;. The man who went out of his way to annoy as many foreign governments as possible.

How the hell is a government credible if they make such an appointment?