[RD] Is NATO a threat to Russia? If so, how?

I know only from what I read from the article, but isn't the only evidence that ISIS apologised the statement from an Israeli minister? If I'm not mistaken, it's not even clear which attack ISIS was apologising for.

So all we have is an Israeli minister boasting that Israel has been so successful in their operations that ISIS apologised to them for an attack they made 'accidentally'. Which is all sorts of odd no matter how you interpret it. If what the minister said is true, why did ISIS apologise for an attack on Israel instead of crowing about it like they usually do? If the minister is making stuff up, why not just say that Israel thwarted an attack instead of claiming ISIS apologised for it and said it was a mistake?
 
I don't think so, Verbose. More so given I rather explicitly mentioned that it is being presented as a monolithic medieval anti-heretic group.
But that is where the question becomes: Is it? Where?

You say so here, but if that does not conform to the experiences of others, what are you basing it on?
 
I know only from what I read from the article, but isn't the only evidence that ISIS apologised the statement from an Israeli minister? If I'm not mistaken, it's not even clear which attack ISIS was apologising for.

So all we have is an Israeli minister boasting that Israel has been so successful in their operations that ISIS apologised to them for an attack they made 'accidentally'. Which is all sorts of odd no matter how you interpret it. If what the minister said is true, why did ISIS apologise for an attack on Israel instead of crowing about it like they usually do? If the minister is making stuff up, why not just say that Israel thwarted an attack instead of claiming ISIS apologised for it and said it was a mistake?
ISIS is a kind of franchise anyway. So there isn't really a single ISIS these days.
 
But that is where the question becomes: Is it? Where?

You say so here, but if that does not conform to the experiences of others, what are you basing it on?
I assume he is basing it on his experience?

You people really do love to talk to each other. Like lovelorn lovers in a moonlit midnight garden, saying pages worth of speeches where a few, manly words would suffice
 
ISIS is a kind of franchise anyway. So there isn't really a single ISIS these days.
Innonimatu's article is dated 2017, so pre-fracture.

Maybe it was just some random number, called the minister and said 'Hiya, Moshe. It's me, ISIS. Sorry about that attack, won't happen again,' and hung up.
 
They share common enemies, Assad, Iran, Russia ? It makes sense that Daesh Syria would not want to attack Israel.

And if they do, it is likely by "accident", no mystery there...
 
So the positive is that Isis is actually hating Israel less than other muslims. It may be that it's not even religious, but just another side trading oil and trying to live the american dream of getting rich fast ^^
Then again, if so, why the rhetoric that it needs to be destroyed?
 
ISIS is finding opportunities now also becuase the US and Europe are busy with Russia, and to some extent China. It all comes with this kind of alternative cost, that the attention is relatively off of ISIS for now. While Russia is conversely busy with making trouble for the west – when it is not obsesses over hunting imaginary enemies, like Nazi Ukranians and gay people. (Which is easier, since they are imaginary, they can be foiled all the time...)

Agreed. The FSB has undergone a transition and are now primarily in the business of internal repression within Russia and clandestine operations in primarily Europe, Caucasus, Africa and the Middle East. The FSB has been occupied lately making sure that voters set their x at the 'right candidate', arresting gay men and surveilling women putting flowers at Navalny's grave.
 
So the positive is that Isis is actually hating Israel less than other muslims. It may be that it's not even religious, but just another side trading oil and trying to live the american dream of getting rich fast ^^
Then again, if so, why the rhetoric that it needs to be destroyed?

It only needs to be destroyed when they attack "you", when they attack "someone else", all is good.

Obviously, getting all your enemies to kill eachother (preferably in a far away place), while sitting on your hands, is the highest form of warfare.
 
It only needs to be destroyed when they attack "you", when they attack "someone else", all is good.

Obviously, getting all your enemies to kill eachother (preferably in a far away place), while sitting on your hands, is the highest form of warfare.
Except we don't want that.

The ISIS cell most active recently, the one which has claimed the attack in Moscow, is IS-K (for Khorasan) that has become very active, and successful in recruiting in Central Asia recently.

It was also IS-K that only last week saw two operative apprehended by German police, at the behest of the Verfaßungsschutz, for planning a terrotist attack in Sweden.

If we let them grow like this just because they might bite Russia, then we really are fools, and in the end they will chew us up as well.
 
Just heard France increased its alert level, often such attacks are part of a campaign..

Unlikely Russia is the only target.

 
Ah, the nasty Americans manipulating weaker nations like Russia who only want peace.

Whatever. The FSB announced before the attack it had foiled several terror plots in Moscow. Islamist factions in the Caucasus region for a month or more. Can't believe the Putinists weren't more careful about security in general.
what exactly are you complaining about? you know you could always go volunteer for Ukraine.
 
I know only from what I read from the article, but isn't the only evidence that ISIS apologised the statement from an Israeli minister? If I'm not mistaken, it's not even clear which attack ISIS was apologising for.

So all we have is an Israeli minister boasting that Israel has been so successful in their operations that ISIS apologised to them for an attack they made 'accidentally'. Which is all sorts of odd no matter how you interpret it. If what the minister said is true, why did ISIS apologise for an attack on Israel instead of crowing about it like they usually do? If the minister is making stuff up, why not just say that Israel thwarted an attack instead of claiming ISIS apologised for it and said it was a mistake?
The links posted by innonimatu are misrepresented, taken out of context, and don't support the point he's trying to make.
Here are some slightly more detailed (and possibly slightly less bad) articles about the ISIS attack on Israel:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-investigating-reports-of-shots-mortars-on-golan-heights/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-defense-minister-says-is-apologized-to-israel-for-november-clash/

Sorry for using Israeli sources, but our options are Western media quoting the same Israeli sources. Or Turkish state media (as inno posted) misquoting the same Israeli sources. If you find more detailed or less biased articles feel free to share them. (Maybe some ISIS/Amaq press release?).

First of all, the statements were made by a former minister who had resigned months before the attack occurred. He was not part of the government anymore.

Secondly, the attack was a minor border clash. Some Israeli soldiers had crossed their Golan Heights "security fence" towards Syria. They received small arms and mortar fire. Not a single Israeli solider or civilian was injured.

Thirdly, Israel did respond. They boasted about it: "The army will not tolerate any impairment to its sovereignty and will respond severely to any attempt to damage it". They counterattacked with tank and airstrikes and claim to have killed 4 ISIS-affiliated militants.

And finally the context is important. This attack occurred in 2016. At the time, ISIS directly controlled a large and populous territory in Iraq/Syria. Its goal was to to expand and solidify the proto-state they were establishing in the region. They already did carry out terrorist attacks (including many in the West). But their main campaign in the Middle East was fought through conventional warfare. To do so, they exploited the weakness, internal divisions and disorganization of the Syrian and Iraqi governments and their armed forces. Through its propaganda and military "exploits", ISIS got many Salafist rebel groups in Syria and throughout the world to pledge allegiance to the Islamic State. This led to a decentralized structure where the allegiance of some groups to ISIS was mostly nominal, or where level of the coordination between subgroups and the main "Caliphate" was uncertain. Some of these groups were not linked geographically to the main ISIS proto-state in Mesopotamia. This was the case for the one that attacked Israeli forces in the Golan Heights (the Khalid ibn al-Walid army). So how much of the attack and the supposed "apology" were ordered by the main leaders of ISIS is uncertain. But considering the context, it seems much more likely that, if the events from the article are accurate, they mostly involved a small group of poorly coordinated fighters.

In any case, these groups had little interest in attacking Israel for two big reasons that are more plausible thant the alledged Israeli support. First of all, ISIS performed poorly against modern well-organized armies. They got obliterated when the US and Russia got involved. They would have suffered the same fate if they tried a military advance in the heavily fortified Golan Heights against the advanced military of Israel. There was much more to gain (in territory and in propaganda) by fighting against fatigued and demoralized Syrian and Iraqi troops. Secondly, some wonder why ISIS does not carry out terrorist attacks inside Israel. Well they did:
In Bersheeba: https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...-israel-police-emergency-services-2022-03-22/
In Hadera: https://www.reuters.com/world/middl...eli-city-are-shot-dead-police-say-2022-03-27/
They also unconvincly claimed one in Jerusalem: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-palestinians-idUSKBN19805U/
But the reality on the ground is that there are probably very few potential ISIS recruits among Palestinians. The most radical or militant Palestinians who are ready to fight against Israel will generally join the groups that are already well established in the region such as Hamas. These groups' main benefactor is Iran which is a mortal enemy of ISIS. So it's no surprise that ISIS gained very little traction inside Palestine/Israel.

One of the problems with accusations of "supporting ISIS" is that they're often just speculation, so the debate is often futile. And every side of the Syrian conflict has accused the other of supporting ISIS (e.g. through covert operations or by buying oil from them).
Syria/Iran/Russia accuse FSA/Rojava/US/Turkey/Israel, and vice versa.
And Turkey and Israel/Rojava accuse each other.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/03/world/middleeast/new-battles-aleppo-syria-insurgents-isis.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/27/erdogan-denies-turkey-buys-oil-from-isil/
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-collaborating-with-daesh-arab-knesset-member/1063451

The other bigger problem is that "supporting" can mean multiple things along a large spectrum.

At one end of the spectrum, it could mean that some countries have inadvertently provided the conditions for the rise of ISIS. This is obvious and the main culprit here is the US for destabilizing the region. But to some extent the Syrian Assad government, different Iraqi factions and the Gulf countries could also be blamed. Without evidence of intent, it seems far-fetched to call these examples "support for ISIS".

Being slightly more accusatory, one might say that some countries and non-state actors have turned a blind eye to the nascent ISIS movement or indirectly helped it grow in the hope of weakening their enemies. That's just basic realpolitik, so it's nothing suprising. In Israel case, it's certain that they were happy that anti-Assad rebels were destroying Syria. Even moreso near the Golan Heights which are deemed strategically important. The rebels could be ISIS, another variety of Salafists, communists, or Martians for all Israel cares. What mattered is that they weakend Assad's hold on power and on territory, because Syria was one of the last countries in the region to resist American (and Israeli) hegemony. That Israel did not fight these Salafists is not surprising. That Israel worked to impede Assad's fight against them is also not surprising. But to what level Israel directly supported these groups (if they did, pre- or post-ISIS allegiance) is AFAIK classified. So we can only speculate for now. But, if it's plausible that Israel had some leve of influence on the subgroups fighting in their southwestern Syrian enclave, it seems rather unlikely that they supported and influenced the main ISIS leadership in Raqqa (or wherever they were hiding) and even more unlikely that they held influence over the ISIS "affiliated" groups carrying out attacks in the West. So indeed, when alleging support for ISIS, it might be useful for clarity to specify "which ISIS" we're talking about.

And at the opposite end of the spectrum of "support", some people accuse the US, for example, of having completely created ISIS. This theory is popular in the Arab world. But the available historical record simply does not support that. This is, for now, an unfounded conspiracy theory.

And in-between the two extremes, there are different level of alleged "support" that range from possible to unplausible. If like Kyriakos you stay very vague about what you mean, your "claims" (if they can be called that) can sound realistic. But by being so vague they are also meaningless.
 
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In the military sense, as initially mentioned by amadeus... "jein", or "yes and no" is the correct answer. Which has also evolved over the past couple of years. In January of 2022, I would have said, no, NATO is not a military threat to Russia. Everyone thought that Russia had the second-strongest army in the world, and why would NATO want to invade the second-strongest army in the world? Just because NATO technically may have had a stronger army didn't mean it would in any way be make sense to tangle with the second-strongest army in the world.

But soon we saw that Russia only had the second-strongest army in Ukraine, and for a brief time in June of 2023, the second-strongest army in Russia. Moreover, while Russia has increased its military production more quickly, they are triggering an increase in arms production in NATO countries as well. They've been weakening their own army through losses, incentivizing NATO to strengthen its armies, and consistently angering NATO into providing more and more types of weapons to counter Russian aggression. At this point, the cumulative effect could wind up being a threat to the Russian state - most likely through accumulated internal instability like in 1917.

How could they end this threat? Not militarily, that just creates an opposing reaction, and after two years, it's clear that they have no clear path to winning militarily, let alone if they actually cause NATO boots to be on the ground. The surest way to end the threat is to exit Ukraine and end the war.

Psychologically? The irony of it is that the military alliance that expanded not-so-voluntarily was the Warsaw Pact. Did Poland want to be in the Warsaw Pact? No, they wanted an independent Poland, not to be subject to one of the two countries in WWII that invaded Poland and committed mass murder against civilian Poles (link - images not very pleasant). Hungary and Czechoslovakia weren't so wild about being members either, the Ukrainian People's Republic had been forcibly integrated into the USSR in circa 1920, and the Baltic states suffered a similar fate in the late '30s. If you ignore the voluntary nature of NATO and assume it operates the same way, and have had that propagandized into your head for decades, then it might look threatening.
 
China will be next? In what way?

In same way as Russia. Interference in elections, hackers, then, presumably, poisoning will take place
 
Like this ?


Not very likely, the Chinese are a bit more subtle in their foreign affairs...

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“His actions go against the purpose and essence, even the name, of our party.” He added: “The only loyalty for nationalists can only be to their own nation.”
 
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