If you acknowledge the actual rate isn't known then you are admitting that the claim of disproportionate rate has no basis in that context.
Perhaps there is basis for disproportionate violence. If there is let's see it. The claim that JKR's nonsense is widespread enough to normalize this violence does depend on there actually being a heightened rate of violence to at least some extent.
TheMeInTeam said:
The correct conclusion is that we don't know the actual rate of violence in the context of dating etc, unless we have evidence to support it.
No, there's still a basis. Even if we had no official stats at all there'd still be a basis in the form of victim reporting. The homicide rates cannot be known because there is no evidence that the reported number of transgender deaths matches the actual number; particularly there's no evidence that victims are always gendered correctly and there's no evidence that victims even if they are gendered correctly are correctly apprehended to be trans. For this reason the data you cited is weak evidence for any particular claim.
The strong evidence is transpeople telling us that violence happens against them. As a matter of fact the
2015 U.S. Transgender Survey, which was quoted to you and which you've promptly forgotten, provides the hard numbers of that transgender reporting. I'll also cite the
CDC.
Note:
VAWnet said:
- Nearly half (46%) of respondents were verbally harassed in the past year because of being transgender.
- Nearly one in ten (9%) respondents were physically attacked in the past year because of being transgender.
- Nearly half (47%) of respondents were sexually assaulted at some point in their lifetime and one in ten (10%) were sexually assaulted in the past year. In communities of color, these numbers are higher: 53% of Black respondents were sexually assaulted in their lifetime and 13% were sexually assaulted in the last year.
- 72% of respondents who have done sex work, 65% of respondents who have experienced homelessness, and 61% of respondents with disabilities reported being sexually assaulted in their lifetime.
- More than half (54%) experienced some form of intimate partner violence, including acts involving coercive control and physical harm.
Now, in the lack of any verified hard data, we would have to create a data model, where we make two assumptions:
1. the baseline homicide rate against transgender people is probably* the genpop homicide rate.
2. the actual homicide rate is this baseline rate plus or minus any factors for being transgender.
* "Probably" in the sense that it
could be different, but can only be known to some confidence level. A random subsample, however, is always representative. So we are assuming a random subsample baseline and modifying that according to possible factors inherent to the group.
It is not strictly necessary to stick to the homicide rate stat except to say that these factors reveal an increased risk of homicide due to the possibility of hate crime. So, a 9% respondent rate for hate-related physical assault is an indicator of possible violent factors due to being transgender. It must be proven, but the logic behind the model is sound.
Moving along, the other stats reveal elevated risks of violence, and we'll cite
RAINN as well:
43% of heterosexual women report being sexually assaulted in their lifetimes. (CDC)
75% of bisexual women report being sexually assaulted in their lifetimes. (CDC)
47% of transgender/binary non-conforming people report having been sexually assaulted in their lifetimes. (Trans Survey)
21% of straight men report having been sexually assaulted in their lifetimes. (CDC)
21% of TGQN (transgender, genderqueer, nonconforming) college students have been sexually assaulted, compared to 18% of non-TGQN females, and 4% of non-TGQN males. (RAINN)
In the gen-pop, 0.13% of people are sexually assaulted per year. (RAINN)
Among transgender/binary non-conforming people, 9% reported being assaulted in the span of a single year. (Trans Survey).
I could go on but the message is clear. One last word from Violence Against Women dot Net:
As always, listening to and believing survivors is critical.