Let's Discuss Taiwan

[Birdjaguar]

China takes the long view and in the end I expect Taiwan to be part of China in some fashion. Does anyone but the politicians care what happens to Taiwan (of course the Taiwanese do)?

 

[Cutlass]

That may be so, but shirking our duty to Taiwan may also be in the world's best interest. Considering the players involved, us living up to our obligation to Taiwan would definitely be a spark for WWIII. Are you really prepared to risk global annihilation and possibly the end of human civilization just so Taiwan can remain independent?

So while Trump's motives for potentially abandoning Taiwan would certainly be far from noble, it may still ultimately be the right thing to do. You know, the whole sacrifice the few for the good of the many thing? Taiwan currently has a population of around 23 million. I'd gladly trade the freedom of 23 million to save the lives of the billions that would surely die in a global war, or even to save the hundreds of millions that would die in a regional war.

Neville Chamberlain salutes you! Peace in our time!

 

[Ferocitus]

The current situation is strange, because it depends on the People's Republic being enough of a regional hegemon to insist upon the weird legal fiction of Taiwan as a "rebel province", but not so much a hegemon that it doesn't need that fiction. I think the future will depend on whether the People's Republic is able to expand its influence over Taiwan to the point that they no longer see formalisation of Taiwanese independence as a threat.

Partly it's a question of internal Taiwanese politics. The most strongly pro-China section of the Taiwanese parliament is also fiercely committed to the One China policy, so even if the PRC had no strong interest in maintaining a weird theoretical sovereignty over Taiwan for its own sake, they equally have nothing to gain in renouncing that sovereignty if it only serves to strengthen anti-Chinese elements in Taiwan.

Do you see any similarities there with the (earlier) desire of Germans to
re-unify, or the 2 Koreas wanting the same? Not necessarily from purely
political or ideological desires, but more from simple cultural, historical
ones? (And, yes, there are obvious overlaps!)

 

[Archbob]

They will eventually be forced to join China I bet as trade relations between major powers takes more importance, Taiwan will most likely get lost in the shuffle.
Their best chance to stay independent is to have fights to the death with their greatest champions against Chinese ones in once in a generation contests for freedom.

 

[Cutlass]

They will eventually be forced to join China I bet as trade relations between major powers takes more importance, Taiwan will most likely get lost in the shuffle.
Their best chance to stay independent is to have fights to the death with their greatest champions against Chinese ones in once in a generation contests for freedom.

Commie China can genetic engineer and steroid into existence a winner for that much more easily.

 

[Traitorfish]

Do you see any similarities there with the (earlier) desire of Germans to
re-unify, or the 2 Koreas wanting the same? Not necessarily from purely
political or ideological desires, but more from simple cultural, historical
ones? (And, yes, there are obvious overlaps!)

It's not my impression that the two Chinas have the sort of cultural or familial ties that the two Germanies or two Koreas shared (or as, historically, the two Vietnams shared). Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945, and had limited contact with mainland China for another fifty years after that. That's a century of divergent history, covering most of the crucial period in which modern Chinese national identity was formed. The "One China" is an abstract ideological principle far more than a lived experience.

 

[Ferocitus]

They will eventually be forced to join China I bet as trade relations between major powers takes more importance, Taiwan will most likely get lost in the shuffle.
Their best chance to stay independent is to have fights to the death with their greatest champions against Chinese ones in once in a generation contests for freedom.

They might stay independent as a nation for "UN purposes", but China's
overwhelming economic power will probably mean that Taiwan will need a lot of
outside help, and that isn't likely to stave off the crush forever.
PRC can wrong-foot economic tacticians easily and quickly with immediate changes
when it suits them. Taiwan and its western buddies can only respond at
crawling-through-molasses pace through their sham democratic parliaments and
talking-houses.

 

[Ferocitus]

It's not my impression that the two Chinas have the sort of cultural or familial ties that the two Germanies or two Koreas shared (or as, historically, the two Vietnams shared). Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945, and had limited contact with mainland China for another fifty years after that. That's a century of divergent history, covering most of the crucial period in which modern Chinese national identity was formed. The "One China" is an abstract ideological principle far more than a lived experience.

Thanks for the additional insights!
I take your point about the Japanese rule in Taiwan for that period, however,
could that fact be more of a unifying thread for the two "Chinas", rather than
being something that is a basis for what distinguishes them?

 

[Traitorfish]

Thanks for the additional insights!
I take your point about the Japanese rule in Taiwan for that period, however,
could that fact be more of a unifying thread for the two "Chinas", rather than
being something that is a basis for what distinguishes them?

Possibly, but I'm not sure how much the experiences had in common. Taiwan was under a civilian administration, rather than military occupation, and despite some resistance to Japanese rule, individual Taiwanese were more likely to find themselves fighting in the Imperial Army than with any of the anti-Japanese forces. There was never really a "war of national resistance" that bound Taipei to Beijing, in the same way as there was in Korea or Vietnam.

 

[Ferocitus]

Possibly, but I'm not sure how much the experiences had in common. Taiwan was under a civilian administration, rather than military occupation, and despite some resistance to Japanese rule, individual Taiwanese were more likely to find themselves fighting in the Imperial Army than with any of the anti-Japanese forces. There was never really a "war of national resistance" that bound Taipei to Beijing, in the same way as there was in Korea or Vietnam.

Fair assessment!. If the same horrors had been visited on Taiwan
then my idea might have greater weight.
Cheers!

 

[Patine]

Possibly, but I'm not sure how much the experiences had in common. Taiwan was under a civilian administration, rather than military occupation, and despite some resistance to Japanese rule, individual Taiwanese were more likely to find themselves fighting in the Imperial Army than with any of the anti-Japanese forces. There was never really a "war of national resistance" that bound Taipei to Beijing, in the same way as there was in Korea or Vietnam.

I agree here. Mainland China is no more culturally similar or familial to Taiwan than they are to the very large Singaporean/Malay/Indonesian Chinese community.

 

[Farm Boy]

Can't say that's ever seemed particularly relevant to the mainland Chinese?

 

[Arwon]

It's not my impression that the two Chinas have the sort of cultural or familial ties that the two Germanies or two Koreas shared (or as, historically, the two Vietnams shared). Taiwan was under Japanese rule from 1895 to 1945, and had limited contact with mainland China for another fifty years after that. That's a century of divergent history, covering most of the crucial period in which modern Chinese national identity was formed. The "One China" is an abstract ideological principle far more than a lived experience.

I think there's a bit of a split between local Taiwanese and the Mandarin-speaking mainlander disaspora whose Kuomintang used to dominate the government, too. Until the 1980s they used to try to suppress Taiwanese Hokkien, for instance.

 

[Commodore]

Neville Chamberlain salutes you! Peace in our time!

If I remember right, you were one of the people criticizing Trump a few months ago when you thought he was risking nuclear war with North Korea, yet now you are perfectly okay with starting a nuclear war with China over Taiwan simply because Trump doesn't want to honor our agreement with them. So it seems you are just basing your opinions on various issues solely on being a contrarian to whatever Trump's stance is.

 

[El_Machinae]

It looks like total trade with Taiwan and the US is worth about $60 billion annually. At 2% of trade, it seems to be worth spending up to $1.2 billion in military maintaining that relationship. But I don't know what would happen to the trade between the two countries if they were to revert to Chinese rule.

 

[Commodore]

But I don't know what would happen to the trade between the two countries if they were to revert to Chinese rule.

My guess is that would largely depend on how we react to a Chinese takeover.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

I really do want an answer from people who think the US should honor its agreement with Taiwan. Do you think Taiwan's continued existence as an independent nation is really worth fighting a global war over? If you were in Trump's position and tomorrow China started landing troops in Taipei, would you really escalate the conflict by deploying US troops to fight the PLA?

Thing is, I did answer this question. It's just that the answer doesn't fit within your frame of reference.

China isn't going to land troops in Taiwan. They just aren't. They couldn't even begin to survive an all out military conflict with the US, and there is no reason for them to risk getting in such a conflict. The US is declining rapidly and in fairly short order (by the kind of time frame that leaders in China operate) Taiwan will have no real alternative but to dissolve their defense pact with the militarily unreliable and economically dwindling former power.

 

[Commodore]

Thing is, I did answer this question. It's just that the answer doesn't fit within your frame of reference.

The post you quoted wasn't directed at you since you aren't one of the ones advocating we go to war with China to defend Taiwan. Cutlass and a few other posters here seem to think it would be morally wrong for the US to not honor its agreement to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion and I want to hear their reasoning for that. I want to hear why the right to self-determination of 23 million Taiwanese is more important than the lives of hundreds of millions. And when we are discussing taking action that would potentially start WWIII the "because we signed the treaty" excuse just isn't going to cut it.

The US is declining rapidly

No, it's really not. That's just your anti-American bias wishing that the US were in decline. In fact, the US is in the middle of a resurgence. This article explains the situation quite well:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e6dd8d22d8f_story.html?utm_term=.93e305e4136b

While the article is 5 years old, a lot of the points made in it still hold true. The best point being that people like you come along every 15 to 20 years predicting the decline of the US whenever we get into a bit of a slump, and every time the US emerges from the slump stronger than ever.

 

[Aleksey_aka_al]

Taiwan is a remnant of the civil war in China. Communists won it. People there wanted to be part of the bigger China and under the commies rule. And they were forced against it through mass repression for almost forty years.

The only real reason Taiwan is their is because of the US intervention.

 

[Cutlass]

If I remember right, you were one of the people criticizing Trump a few months ago when you thought he was risking nuclear war with North Korea, yet now you are perfectly okay with starting a nuclear war with China over Taiwan simply because Trump doesn't want to honor our agreement with them. So it seems you are just basing your opinions on various issues solely on being a contrarian to whatever Trump's stance is.

The fundamental difference between North Korea and China is that North Korea wants to be left alone. And if left alone, aren't threatening the whole region. China wants to expand their empire. And they want to do so at the expense of other nations, a number of whom are our friends.