Let's talk about oil

[Stolen Rutters]

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2010/11/101109-peak-oil-iea-world-energy-outlook/

I don't doubt Peak Oil with regards to crude is here or very near, but it seems like non-crude sources are ramping up to allow our total consumption growth to continue.


From http://omrpublic.iea.org/

Total supply

Global oil supply rose by 0.4 mb/d to 88.1 mb/d in November, largely due to increased non-OPEC production, notably from Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil.

For Crude

4Q10 global throughputs are estimated at 73.8 mb/d, 1.8 mb/d less than 3Q10, but still a healthy 1.3 mb/d above a year ago.

Total demand

Global oil product demand is revised up by 130 kb/d to 87.4 mb/d in 2010, and by 260 kb/d to 88.8 mb/d in 2011

I also read somewhere that because the industry is starting to tap more higher cost supplies like deepwater sources and oil shale, we shouldn't have a price shock as we did 3 and 4 years ago. I don't have time to track down those links though, but it sort of makes sense to me. Prices rise but new sources will help minimize any shock to the system... It could happen, a lack of a price shock I mean.

 

[civ_king]

There was an article recently about peak coal, too ...
Now, there's a LOT of coal, but it's always been a function of getting it out of the ground in an economic and environmentally stable way. It's not like oil, where you can drain an oil basin due to it being liquid.

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v468/n7322/full/468367a.html

I have a subscription, so I don't know if it's open access ... sorry.
The podcast from that week has an interview, too.

energy content peak occurred in 1998...

 

[Fanatic Noob]

Lack of conventional energy? There is many non conventional solutions. There is one of those:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_updraft_tower

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EnviroMission
http://web.archive.org/web/20070218....com/greenwombat/2007/02/australian_sola.html

But people should hurry to build such things, because when Oil and coal run out in few years, then can be problems, really.

 

[Cutlass]

The problems with all alternative energy sources is that they are more costly than fossil fuels for energy output. Part of that is because we do not capture the externalities from fossil fuels (which is what carbon taxes are intended to do). And we also have the problem that R&D in alternative energy has been lagging, because government has been funding too much of what we already have instead of what we need. So it's still mostly a future thing.

 

[Fanatic Noob]

And... because of that soon someone may wake up with his hand in the potty... Because when oil will run out, there will be too late to convert to other energy sources in one year. This example power plant based on not-convectional energy will be about to ready in 2020. And this project have already few years, so take this in your calculations.

Edit: and I am not new to this problem, as I read about Peak Oil on Polish site and forum dedicated to this problem from about 4 years already.

 

[El_Machinae]

The problems with all alternative energy sources is that they are more costly than fossil fuels for energy output. Part of that is because we do not capture the externalities from fossil fuels (which is what carbon taxes are intended to do). And we also have the problem that R&D in alternative energy has been lagging, because government has been funding too much of what we already have instead of what we need. So it's still mostly a future thing.

There's just general underinvestment, too. I look at my personal investments into energy, and I find that most of my investments (at the personal level) focus on increasing my energy efficiency and not on increasing my access to alternatives. I spend $$$ on an efficient car, insulation and weathering, more efficient electronics, etc.

 

[Murky]

There does have to be a switch over to other sources of energy at some point. The question is not if but when. There is also the question of how much of a impact price increases and shortages will have on the economy.

What we'll probably see is more re-urbanization as gas price-increases/shortages make suburban life untenable for working class families. More people will be riding commuter trains, bikes and walking to work instead of driving. Solar panels and the like will become increasingly popular.

There is already a move to go towards more natural lighting and watching less TV. As people move to healthier fruits and veggies we'll need less energy for cooking. We'll use less and less fossil fuel and more renewable energy, but there will probably be bumps along the way.

I don't think life as we currently know it(big screen TVs, SUVs, etc.) will still exist after the change over. There will be those who try to hang on to it as long as they can. It will come as a shock to them when they can no longer fill up their gas tank for under a $100.00, when a pound of beef cost $50.00 and when regulations put a huge tax on their fossil-full powered electric bill.

You just know that the fossil fuel industry is going to do everything it can to survive and profit for as long as possible(Global Warming will get worse).

 

[Cutlass]

And... because of that soon someone may wake up with his hand in the potty... Because when oil will run out, there will be too late to convert to other energy sources in one year. This example power plant based on not-convectional energy will be about to ready in 2020. And this project have already few years, so take this in your calculations.

Edit: and I am not new to this problem, as I read about Peak Oil on Polish site and forum dedicated to this problem from about 4 years already.

Oil is not going to just "run out". What will happen is that as demand comes to exceed supply, the price will go up a lot and it will force dislocations and disruptions of the economy. And it won't be a smooth process.

 

[Fanatic Noob]

Yes. That's why it is even worse. It can lead to wars, rebels, strikes, civil wars? And who knows what else...

 

[galdre]

Yes. That's why it is even worse. It can lead to wars, rebels, strikes, civil wars? And who knows what else...

Spoiler :

 

[Narz]

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/02/shell-20110214.html#more

Shell has published an update to its 2008 Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050. (Earlier post.) Those energy scenarios—Scramble and Blueprints—remain a credible vision of what may lie ahead, Shell said. The new booklet—Signals & Signposts—updates the company’s thinking by taking into account the impact of the global economic and financial crisis.

In summary, Shell believes that the world is entering an era of volatile transitions as the effects of energy consumption on the environment become increasingly clear. The recession interrupted the oil and commodity price boom but it may return. Emerging nations like China and India are going through materially intensive development and a tighter market will continue to put pressure on prices and generate volatility. Improvements in policy-making and strong gains in productivity have helped economies to grow without inflation in the last two decades. Shell does not believe the moderating effect of this combination of good policies, good practices, and good luck will continue into the future.

 

[Narz]

http://www.theecologist.org/News/ne...etting_closer_but_the_world_is_not_ready.html

 

[Monsterzuma]

here's an interesting Blog post on energy alternatives:

http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/06/rossi-provides-more-answers-about.html

Dennis Bushnell

Dennis Bushnell, Chief Scientist of NASA, was interviewed for an EV World podcast.

1. The most interesting and high potential alternative energy is low energy nuclear reactions.

Bushnell thinks Rossi and cold fusion is low energy nuclear reactions via weak nuclear force. NASA started experiments in 2006 to investigate Widom Larsen theory and used quantum theory to guide and optimize their work.

LENR technology by itself could potentially solve all of our energy and climate problems.

I think we are almost over the "we do not understand it" problem. I think we are almost over the "this does not produce anything useful" problem. I think this will go forward fairly rapidly now. If it does, this is capable of, by itself, completely changing geo-economics, geo-politics, and solving climate issues.

2. halophytes (salt water plants)

Want to use this for biomass. Irrigating the Sahara with the mediterranian would produce enough biomass to replace all fossil fuel. It could also produce food to feed the world. This is why he lists it above cyanobacteria. 68% of fresh water is used for farming. So using salt water would free up the fresh water.

3. cyanobacteria and algae. more productive than halophytes. Algae is cost challenged. Joule Unlimited has cyanobacteria can use waste water and sunlight (20,000 gallons per acre at $50/barrel)

4. Conservation and energy efficiency (30% energy reduction)

5. Geothermal power

6. nanoplastic photovoltaics

7. solar thermal concentrators (water heating)

8. high altitude wind

9. burned biomass

10. Distributed generation

apparently a high ranking science official at Nasa who holds several energy related patents believes LENR is likely real and going to be mastered in one of the coming few decades. he takes Andrea Rossi's recent attempt seriously.

his second point also provides a plausible solution to fossil fuel shortage problems.

 

[Narz]

Rossi - 1 gram of matter (Nickel) produces 23 million kWh of power. Rossi is describing the energy that is generated as thermal/heat and at a low grade temperature. Converting to electricity would be at about 5% efficiency.

How come they're only getting "a few hundred" then?

 

[Monsterzuma]

Link to video.

verbatim quote from IEA Chief Economist: "the age of cheap oil is over."

 

[Narz]

Even the World Bank is acknowledging they'll likely be trouble within the next few years.

http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm/9038/World-Likely-To-Face-Severe-Oil-Crunch

 

[innonimatu]

Link to video.

verbatim quote from IEA Chief Economist: "the age of cheap oil is over."

I'm afraid that actually means "the age of independent but weak weak oil producing countries is over"... more wars on the horizon.

 

[Kozmos]

They figured out how to turn trees into oil. I'm not terribly concerned. I imagine the hippies are screaming in terror though. Higher priced oil will drive the alternatives faster though which is good.

 

[Narz]

They figured out how to turn trees into oil.

They did, did they?

 

[El_Machinae]

I find some of the trends really interesting. The change in the price/supply ratio of the last ten years is pretty striking. In many ways, the amount of oil flowing now, when it's $80 is nearly the same as when it was $60. But when I ask people about adapting to these changes in oil prices, there's almost no difference. Almost no one I know is spending money on adapting or mitigating rises in oil supplies, and they're certainly not ready for any shocks.

There's a trend of increasing gdp/barrel of oil, imply better economic efficiency, but it's not a very strong one. It's not faster than some of the changes in the price of oil. This is pretty scary, because it means that, even with increased scarcity, there's the risk of scarcity actually causing real poverty. If the scarcity was happening more slowly than efficiency gains, then we'd expect increasing wealth despite falling oil supplies. But I'm not very hopefully, looking at those trends.