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Libya: Seriously, where is this going?

The thing that complicates the situation is that everyone knows which tribe they belong to.

And the tribes who were treated well by Gaddafi may be in for some unpleasantness or worse...

It may very well be that Gaddafi's followers are fighting with their backs to the wall. If Gaddfi goes, so might they.

Yeah, which is why I argued for a direct Western intervention in Tripoli. We want to avoid the sort of ugliness that ensues when tribesmen decide it's time to settle a few accounts.

Oh well, when they start massacring each other, I'll be there to say "I told you so"...
 
You'd have to "police" the whole of Libya if that was your aim.

I do think however, that the International Community may be able to influence whomever will end up in charge of going easy on traditionally Gaddafi-loyal tribes: If we tie the payments for oil revenue to some requirements of civility and order, we might be able to keep the situation from descending into chaos.
 
There is no international community, it's a phrase the Americans made up to make people think Russia and China's opinions don't matter
 
And if the rebels sometime soon conduct a serious assault on Tripoli, do they have a realistic chance of taking it?
Comments from the rebel side seems to indicate they are hoping enough of Tripoli will rise up and help hand them the city. So far that doesn't seem to have happened. Some neighbourhoods might have, but apparently not enough. Not yet at least. Whether this is from actual lack of enthusiasm over getting rid of Ghaddaffi (i.e. actual support of him) or if it's an effect of his regime for now still maintaining enough control to discourage prospective rebels is unclear.
 
The thing that complicates the situation is that everyone knows which tribe they belong to.

And the tribes who were treated well by Gaddafi may be in for some unpleasantness or worse...

It may very well be that Gaddafi's followers are fighting with their backs to the wall. If Gaddfi goes, so might they.
Which is why the cooler heads in the provisionary rebel governments have been saying all along that the tribal system needs to at least change. Ghaddaffi played it as one of his strategies of divide and conquer. He might have done so skillfully enough to feck up the country for a long time. At least the possible nocive effects of tribalism seem to be realised by some Libyans.
 
There is no international community, it's a phrase the Americans made up to make people think Russia and China's opinions don't matter
CommunitIES, communitIES...

As part of the local weirdness in Libya, it has been reported the rebel forces are now apparently being handed (for at least the second time) information material about the Geneva Convention and other rules of warfare as part of their preparations to assult Tripoli. This is per the specs of the powers carrying out the bombing runs.
 
There is no international community, it's a phrase the Americans made up to make people think Russia and China's opinions don't matter

Well, to be honest, I pretty much ignore everything the Russian government says. It is programmatically opposed to anything the West says or does. Do you watch Russia Today sometimes? It's probably the world's most hypocritical TV channel, and its reporting on Libya is especially juicy :lol:
 
I don't have RT, but it seems to be a tabloid judging by its website

Its tagline should be "throwing dirt at USA and Europe 24/7 (while completely ignoring any bad or potentially embarrassing news concerning Russia)". Recently, they had a report about how democracy is failing in Hungary. Though I agree things are not good, this coming from a Russian channel is just unbelievable :lol:

The funny thing is most of the talking heads, reporters, and hosts are Americans, judging by their accents. The money must be very good that they're willing to prostitute themselves like that.
 
Cote d'Ivoire? :mischief:

Anyway, coups have gone out of fashion mostly. But you can still interfere in other ways. Remember when Hamas got elected.[/QUOTE]

Now it's all called "international humanitarian intervention", or "peacekeeping". And you can add Haiti to the list. And, eventually, Libya. And the protectorate of Kosovo. And the protectorates of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Etc.

The journalists these days are a joke.

"Heavy gunfire": a few guys with AK-47 shooting wildly in all directions
"Heavy casualties": more than one dead on either side
"Massive destruction": a few cars and houses burned
"Heavy shelling": a couple morons firing a few mortar rounds at a town
etc.

Have these idiots never heard of a real war? If a few dead constitutes heavy casualties, how would they call what happened on the Somme on Okinawa?

You've only noticed that now? Coverage has been a joke since day one.

Which is why the cooler heads in the provisionary rebel governments have been saying all along that the tribal system needs to at least change. Ghaddaffi played it as one of his strategies of divide and conquer. He might have done so skillfully enough to feck up the country for a long time. At least the possible nocive effects of tribalism seem to be realised by some Libyans.

You know, the funny thing is that the tribal system was all along the traditional system of Libya. What you are proposing is, basically, to bring it kicking and screaming into the 20th (21st?) century. Everywhere that happens, people fight it. It's the root cause for all the problems which the colonial ventures of the "weest" have met, in Africa, the Middle East, and now Central Asia.
You don't like those traditional societies, and I wouldn't like living in one, but many people who live in such societies like them. Even this rebellion has its roots on that system. Unfortunately, people in Europe seem to believe they have a right to impose their social preferences on people in other countries.
Of course, when the Nazis conquered France and decided that traditional french society had to be replaced with some more modern nazi-inspired fascist society (it was modern at the time), they found some local allies but the rest of the french fought back and that was fine with you wasn't it, Verbose? The germans didn't have a right to invade France and impose some different system of government and society on it, even if they were only backing local puppets willing to do the work for them. But it's all right to keep invading half of Africa over and over again, Or the Middle East, or Central Asia, and inflict them with a "modern" government by backing local "modern" puppets?
 
You've only noticed that now? Coverage has been a joke since day one.

No, I just vented now. Someone should give all these journalistic cretins a tour of all the war museums to teach them the true meaning of terms like "hard fighting" and "heavy casualties".

[rant]

The worst thing is they actually shape how people think about these things. Losing a few soldiers in Afghanistan today is considered a military disaster, but any Vietnam War or WW2 general would kill for such low casualty rates. The enemies we're fighting today are disorganized rabble: pitifully armed, untrained, even illiterate in many cases. Describing their attacks as "offensives" is an insult to military theory. The same goes to Libya - both sides in that conflict are just pathetic. Any trained and reasonably well equipped military force would just sweep them away like chess pieces, yet thanks to the media the West is mortally afraid of putting some boots on the ground, because some of them might get shot at. Imagine that :shake:

Worst of all, the reporters totally fail to stress the fact that most of today's Western soldiers are professionals, akin to firefighters and policemen. Yes, on a personal level any death is a tragedy, but people would hardly argue that we should not have fire departments or the police because some of their employees die in their line of work. We are not about to ban cars either, although tens of thousands die in them each year, far more than in any of the so-called wars abroad.

The opposite side to this is the excessive glorification of soldiers and the military in general. Come on, this is not a conscript army any more, with citizen soldiers fighting in great battles for freedom. The people in the military are not some kind of superheroes. It's just a job.

[/rant]
 
Don't stress so much over that. You're not worried for real humanitarian reasons, I expect? It's about investing in the military and then apparently wasting that by keeping it idle?
Well, it's not. The only reason some European countries are not in an invasion spree all over the territories it relinquished during the cold war is that they have learned that outright occupation gets very expensive, and there is no lack of other parties willing to make it so. It's all about indirect control now, and overt military power is used in limited quantities, more as a demonstration and reminder, to impress. Then the influence is exercised through "military cooperation" and weapons sales. The US did it to Europe after WW2 (all those NATO courses given to European military officers also served the purpose of advancing the american worldview), and Europe learned and still does it to Africa.
 
You don't read do you.
I do. It is only that i found amusing how you answered yourself. Iraq and Afghanistan is not enough for you?
 
Well it looks like it's finally over guys!!!!! :goodjob: Rebels taking control of city, Gadaffi's security men surrendering, civilians celebrating on the street... It looks like a matter of hours or days!
 
"The colonizers are trying to colonize the city of Tripoli, so they come with their army to invade our beloved Libya, but we will not allow them to do so until the last blood drops from every man and woman."
COLONIZERS GONNA COLONIZE

 
many thanks , that has saved me ranting about my luck .
 
Meanwhile, in Libya...

- not a single scrap of evidence has yet emerged from libyan archives that libyans had anything to do with the famous Lockerbie bombing;
- NATO continues to "protect civilians" by bombing them when they don't what to recognize the rule of NATO's pet government;
- Sarkozy and Cameron celebrate the victory and negotiate the juicy new oil contracts on the same place where their pet rebels lynched alleged "mercenaries", black africans caught in the fighting - but, of course, only the (former) government was the "evil side";
- ethnic cleansing of black africans, libyans and migrants, continues;
- the war goes on, because - surprise, surprise - Qaddafi tactically still has supporters, even despite months of bombings, the action on the ground of assorted islamic fanatics recruited into a "rebel army", and psychological warfare carried out by NATO - hey, but this is a wear for democracy, they'll have elections once all the wrong voters are killed or terrorized;
- the mass media is presently obediently carrying a campaign peddling the idea that "this is a revolution of the libyan women" even while said assorted terrorists are putting into place islamist repression against women (btw, how have women in Afghanistan been helped? Oh, right, lost of talk and no help).
- that now doubts are being raised about those once virtuous rebels is not an accident: another campaign is being carried out to keep the option open for a future invasion under the cover of "saving libya from Islamic terrorists". You gotta admire the photographer's skill.
 
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