Meanwhile in Libya...

I think it is likely. Why? Because from the initial stages of the conflict it seemed evident that Gheddafi does not have enough forces, numerically speaking, to face this rebellion. He takes back a city but then in moving to the next one does not leave enough garrison to secure the area. The rebels who of course being rebels fight with guerrilla tactics, after initial retreats, retaliate where the enemy is now weaker.
A common mistake even in Civilization.
 
They both hit that sweet spot of being loveably genocidal.
 
I think you know why. ;)

You guys have no sense of humor, I like the guy because he has a cult of personality style appearance, which is really funny, talking for 3 hours at the UN, drinking 5 glasses of water and banging his hand everywhere, ripping papers and throwing them all over the place, you must admit he is funny
 
Seems to me Gadaffi is getting closer to Benghazi everyday, seems to me right now France is the only ones with the balls to really help out.

Will, machine guns and trucks can't stop special forces, tanks and planes.

I am french-ball agnostic until they actually do something to stem the tide.

The Libyan crisis is emblematic of the stupidity of dotting every diplomatic T in regard to intervention.
 
You guys have no sense of humor, I like the guy because he has a cult of personality style appearance, which is really funny, talking for 3 hours at the UN, drinking 5 glasses of water and banging his hand everywhere, ripping papers and throwing them all over the place, you must admit he is funny

Gaddafi is a funny person yes because he is batshit insane, but he is not fit to wield power over a nation.
 
I don't think the no-fly-zone or any international intervention is going to happen. I don't think any of the leaders actually want to intervene at all and are only "pushing" the no-fly-zone just for show. The rebels are simply vastly outgunned. It's all over for them.

After Libya fails the other protests in other countries will cease. In Tunisia and Egypt after a few months of "Spring" they will either return to Business-as-Usual: powerful autocratic elite, corruption, suppression of free speech, or violent jihadists will seize power, thus automatically discrediting any future "populist" revolution in the Middle East as dangerous and destined to fail in the eyes of the rest of the world.

Not quite in Benghazi yet, they did reach Brega. I've never expected anything good out of what was going on in Libya, Qaddafi is too entrenched and too ruthless to be easily overthrown. Plus he was willing to fight if challenged, while the others wanted only to safeguard their accumulated loot.

But something did change in Tunisia and Egypt, those two are not going back to the old "business-as-usual". It's too early to see what will happen there, but what has already happened, the partial collapse of its regimes under popular pressure, can't be forgotten. It shows, among other things, that prolonged "peaceful" protests can do more than outright fighting, "jihadi" or other. Who knows what might have happens in Libya if assaults on military bases and the split of the army hadn't precipitated a civil war so soon? Once those happened, and they happened too soon, the government there could then make some claim to legitimacy in fighting back... timing is key for revolutions. The libyan attempt at revolution was precipitated. As thinks stand now, some "rebel leaders" are already joining the government side, showing the whole thing to have had at least one aspect of failed palace coup, an attempt by some power brokers there to ride the wave of arab revolutions.

About the latest news, who really holds Brega, I'm more inclined to believe the government version. I don't see how the rebels could retake the city, capture and transport a handful of government soldiers from Brega to Benghazi, with government troops in the road between the two. Looks like a desperate attempt by the rebels at looking strong in the hope of getting outside help. But no one who mattered even planned to give them help, they were just useful to provide a distraction from other revolutions in the arabian penninsula - Bahrain is a nice parallel: shouldn't saudi troops there count as "mercenaries"? Now they don't even have that use, as Japan's multiple crisis took all the headlines and seems poised to hold them for weeks.
 
You guys have no sense of humor, I like the guy because he has a cult of personality style appearance, which is really funny, talking for 3 hours at the UN, drinking 5 glasses of water and banging his hand everywhere, ripping papers and throwing them all over the place, you must admit he is funny

People really do have no sense of humor. Hitler was great. The cult of personality he built around himself was hilarious. When he made those speeches about "Master Races" and "ruling the world" while yelling at the right times and fooling millions was amazing. You have to admit, killing six million Jews was a pretty good practical joke, too.

:sarcasm:
 
Bosnia isn't partitioned between the Serbs and the Croats but between Serbs in one side and Muslims and Croats in the other. There are linguistic, religious and even ethnical divides in the area which simply don't exist in Libya. If the country is divided in two nowadays, it's not because NATO intervened, but because the populations wanted it to be so. Now if you had a better compromise in mind, I would be interested to hear it.

As for the idea Saif al-Islam Gaddafi would have brought democracy to the country if the naughty rebels haven't demonstrated, current events prove how much it is a joke. You've lost all credit talking about a topic you obviously don't master in saying so.

the country is divided according the dinner/lunch agreement where Tudjman drew the map of the country on the tablecloth and discussed and defined the borders with Milosevic . Where Krajina was given away for peace in the former Yugoslavia . Serebrenitza is the method of bargaining and Gorazde would have had the same experience . That there would have been an unexplainable and unhideable reaction -finally- is why America finally intervened and pushed the Dayton agreement down the throats of Bosnians . My formative years you know . And ı trust one would have problems in believing the methods of persuasion when it comes this reform thing . A Kaddafi victory will be simple proof the old ways worked and there is no need for a change . Something there has been arguments about as exemplified by the clashes at the Misurata air base as reported by the naughty rebels .

there is no obligation to take me seriously .
 
hopefully this won't be classified as beating a dead horse but :

now that Greenflags appear to have the advantage the Tricolors have moved onto a new stage to prove their viability as world would rather forget the stuff quietly . So we hear the rebels have airpower of their own afterall , with the Flogger bombing and unlike Greenflag Fitters they are reportedly capable of hitting targets . Then a guy who is now commander in chief and he has brought 8000 men with him , 3000 of them special forces .He must be the guy who defected right at the moment Kaddafi was boasting of his friendship causing the whole world lampooning , the guy whose reorientation "liberated" Bingazi and the East Libya ? A boon he must be to those rag tag liberation fighters , but now that he was instrumental in the start of the fighting what was he doing until now ? Expecting the cavalry so that post war he would be number 1 possibility to be Kaddafi II with his -hmm- 8000 men ? Nothing that would have vindicated the naysayers yet . And ı really hate being vindicated .
 
Well done, west, well done. Put off decisions until there's nothing left to decide.
 
I agree with NedimNapoleon that Gadaffi is hilarious.
I agree with Godwynn that Slobodan Milošević was hilarious.
I also agree with DroopyTofu('s sarcasm) that Hitler was hilarious; providing a direct influence for the character from the film "The Great Dictator", in my avatar.
 
I wondered about that with Ghadafi myself. He's making big inroads against the rebellion but what's to stop the rebels numerically retaking the towns with inadequate garrisons? There's only so many mercenaries he can buy.
 
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