[BTS] Mehmed attacking at friendly?

Got attacked by Mehmed right after hitting end turn in 1765 and Isabella then joined right away. Mehmed was friendly towards me and Isabella pleased. According to the 'know your enemy' posting (https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/civ-illustrated-1-know-your-enemy.478563/page-2#post-11931755), Isabella can plot at pleased but Mehmed cannot at pleased - and anyway he was friendly. Mehmed was plotting around 25 turns ago, I was able to beg 1 gold then when it expired i was able to beg again but the 3rd time Mehmed did not accept the beg and a few turns later he declares on me.

Any idea what happened here? I am at war with Monty and Monty did not peace vassal to either of them.

 

He's been bribed against you. most likely.

 

was he cautious with you 25 turns ago when he started plotting?

 

he was pleased when he started plotting and later became friendly

 

IIRC an AI that's in war plotting mode cannot be bribed into a war, either by the player or by another AI, so the only explanation here is that Mehmed started plotting on you when he was cautious (can't check the save, but if you've got any vassals for instance than Mehmed's attitude towards you is the average of his attitude towards you and all your vassals, so he might have really been cautious), DoWed when he was Friendly (which can happen, once an AI starts plotting they won't stop just because they suddenly started liking you) and bribed in Izzy on the first turn of the war. Also note that begging gold doesn't guarantee that an AI won't plot on you, it just means they cannot declare on you until the ten turn peace treaty is over.

 

i looked further back into the saved files and you are right he did start plotting when he was cautious with me. i also didn't realize the declaration is not dependent on their current attitude - becoming friends but he doesn't forget old grievances

 

Also, only Cathy can be bribed at Friendly. No AI will plot at friendly. But AIs can certainly DOW if they started plotting before hitting that threshold. Same for those leaders that do not plot at pleased.

Sometimes begging a little gold from them will end the plot, but at minimum gives you an extra 10 turns to prepare.

 

AI nonsense, there are no logical explanations for him declaring on you now
Just bad rng luck, like losing a 95+% fight. If the code allows plotting (cautious) this can happen, just like automated workers will farm over towns..

Refusing demands (check if they asked aggressive or polite) will often result in such pointless DoWs.
Only if they want something of value from you thou (techs, gold, resis..), if they ask to stop trading, joining wars or switching Relis no check will happen.

 

after i successfully begged 1 gold Mehmed still had the red fist, does it mean i was still the target? i was thinking if i was the target then while peace lasted the first would have gone away.
once they start plotting (meaning the red fist is visible) does it mean they have already locked in on a specific target and if they later declare then it will definitely be against the same target?

i only refused awhile back to stop trading with his worst enemy. later when Mehmed started plotting, he had Augustus as worst enemy but somehow chose me instead even though I am further away and he was cautious towards me.

 

The fist basically means plotting, and he can still plot against you even if he can't attack you for ten turns (due to begging or whatever). It is possible that the enforced peace makes him switch targets, but it doesn't have to happen.

As to your second paragraph: yes, it would have made "more sense" (meaning he had a higher probability) to target Augustus instead. There are whole threads dedicated to that, but basically the AI has higher chances of attacking you if
- you share a border of at least 8 land tiles
- your relations are bad (the worse the more probable)
- your power ratio is lower than theirs
- you don't fulfil their demands.

But there's something to take away here: as long as an AI is able to reach you by land, and is able to plot against you, you're not really safe. Begging is good for temporary safety, bribing into wars or getting AIs between you to close borders is good for longer safety, improving relations is safest but takes time.

 

If you're being lazy enough to use them at all, you should still probably check the box to leave old improvements.

Long ago I tried a game where I had to leave all workers auto all the time. Using city focus I could broadly get all the improvements I wanted, but it was a trainwreck compared to even my relatively inferior worker micro. The movements are so inefficient.