Modern Civilization Sustainable?

[Zardnaar]

As the title says. I'm not talking about economics or climate change.

Have a look at the population pyramids of the OECD. USA and NZ about the best South Korea is near the bottom. It's not only the west as China, Russia, Japan and South Korea are in similar position. Spain and Italy are other examples.

Ultimately it's a self correcting problem. Those societies will either collapse or change or be displaced by others. Some societies may be past the point of no return at least in any foreseeable future. USA and NZ hypothetically have options other countries not so much. We are in uncharted territory though.

 

[Snowygerry]

I did a quick check,

Belgium's population should grow from 11.2 million in 2014 to 11.9 million in 2030 (+7%) and 13.1 million in 2060 (+17%). The number of private households in Belgium should rise from 4.8 million in 2013 to 5.3 million in 2030 (+10%) and 5.9 million in 2060 (+23%).

That's more Belgians than anyone could ever need

 

[Tee Kay]

There's a world of difference between 0.8 TFR and 1.6 TFR, one is sudden demographic collapse the other is managed decline (especially if supplemented with immigration).

I think below-replacement fertility rates are almost inevitable in societies with high individual freedom + high economic inequality/status competition + ready access to contraception. Since lowering individual freedom is, in my humble opinion, barbaric, that leaves reducing status competition. It's probably doable, but hard.

 

[Senethro]

Food production IS the foundation of any economy and the part most vulnerable to climate change, so I don't think the limited view makes any kind of sense.

 

[Zardnaar]

I did a quick check,



That's more Belgians than anyone could ever need

Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100

Belgium - 2023

www.populationpyramid.net

Case in point.

 

[Narz]

Kinda vague OP, you're saying you're worried about too many elderly is why civilization will collapse?

Nigerians still having like 6 kids iirc, we just may have to rethink state borders (besides climate change sorting out borders without war will be the challenge of the rest of the century).

Too many humans consuming in unsustainable manner and throwaway culture are the issue, too many old people is not a problem if they can remain productive. Populations coming down is a good thing.

If we can solve climate change and automate even more of society it will matter even less.

 

[Zardnaar]

Food production IS the foundation of any economy and the part most vulnerable to climate change, so I don't think the limited view makes any kind of sense.

Not really as long as you can import.

If you can't then you have issues assuming local production is insufficient.

 

[Zardnaar]

Kinda vague OP, you're saying you're worried about too many elderly is why civilization will collapse?

Nigerians still having like 6 kids iirc, we just may have to rethink state borders (besides climate change sorting out borders without war will be the challenge of the rest of the century).

Too many humans consuming in unsustainable manner and throwaway culture are the issue, too many old people is not a problem if they can remain productive. Populations coming down is a good thing.

If we can solve climate change and automate even more of society it will matter even less.

Society not civilization. Not enough workers, issues with pensions etc.

Logans run.

 

[Snowygerry]

Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100

Belgium - 2023

www.populationpyramid.net

Case in point.

It's not a pyramid, it's more a column, but I doubt that is a problem, it was a pyramid when child mortality was an issue, I think.

In Burundi, for example it is still a pyramid, does not make me jealous.

These days we expect 99% of children born here, to grow into adulthood, and even grow old, so it makes sense it would not remain a pyramid for ever.

 

[Narz]

Society not civilization. Not enough workers, issues with pensions etc.

Logans run.

Most workers will be rendered obsolete if society survives anyway and a younger person won't have much more to offer than an older one.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

There will be a rebellion by the youth, unable to bare the shackles of caring for a huge mass of elderly.

 

[EgonSpengler]

As the title says. I'm not talking about economics or climate change.

If you're not talking about economics or climate change, I guess I don't know what you are talking about.

Have a look at the population pyramids of the OECD.

Link? Graphic? Explanation?

Ultimately it's a self correcting problem. Those societies will either collapse or change or be displaced by others. Some societies may be past the point of no return at least in any foreseeable future. USA and NZ hypothetically have options other countries not so much. We are in uncharted territory though.

I don't think there's much in human societies or culture that's immutable or permanent. For example, I believe a time-traveler could only go back a few hundred years and still understand most of the Western European languages. I think French and English would be almost completely useless languages to a professional time-traveler. German and Spanish, a little more. Mandarin Chinese is similar to English, in terms of how far back you could use it. I remember Chow Yun Fat saying that learning Qing Dynasty Mandarin for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was like learning Shakespearean English - he could do it, but it was work. Cantonese is quite a bit older, I believe. I don't know about Arabic or Farsi or Hindi. Some smaller languages today are actually older than we think. I remember in the television series Beforeigners, someone noted that people from contemporary Iceland were able to communicate with the time-traveling Vikings, but people in contemporary Norway could not. I think modern speakers of Quechua (an indigenous South American language) would be able to time-travel back to the Incan Empire and get by. I wonder how similar modern Hebrew is to its older version(s)? A professional time-traveler might be smart to learn Hebrew and Cantonese.

Anyway, I suspect that 1,000 years from now, the global primacy of the United States will look fairly short. Maybe a couple-hundred years? Our impact has been massive in a short period of time, but of course we aren't the first culture you can say that about. I imagine parts of our culture will stand the test of time, as parts of other cultures before us have.

 

[Samson]

This thread needs more charts, so here are some. We can start with the important population pyramid, that of the world.



I do not see any reason to predict a demographic crisis. If we keep letting the rich bet richer there will not be enough left for everyone else, but if we do not I see no indication that as a species there is any demographic crisis coming, unless global warming does us in.

It may be harder in some countries if they keep hard borders, but that is an easy thing to change. If the model is that the old will be without people to take care of them then that policy is likely to become more electorally favourable.

Here is another way of looking at it. Here is today's pyramid, but with the working age population highlighted:


The critical number is the ration of white bars to red bars, yeah? And that is age dependency ratio. Here is that for the world. With the pyramids above there is no way the age dependency ratio in the world is going to get as high as some points on this graph, and if we can double productivity we can handle double the age dependency ratio. Where is the problem coming from?

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

Society not civilization. Not enough workers, issues with pensions etc.

Logans run.

Pensions will be phased out and replaced with retirement funds (we call them 401k's in the US), and new workers simply won't have any say in the matter.

Naturally you'll hear a lot of bleating about tying people's retirements to the "volatile" stock market instead of having "guaranteed" income and "rights" thereto, but in the end, we will eventually come to realize that this is in everyone's best interests. At that point, it won't be a political discussion; it will be a pure economic one.

I think this addressed the original question...

 

[Samson]

Pensions will be phased out and replaced with retirement funds (we call them 401k's in the US), and new workers simply won't have any say in the matter.

In the UK both of those are called pensions. I do not know about the antipodeans.

 

[Klaus Hergersheimer]

I guess it's different depending on where you live. To me a retiree's pension is (at least partially) paid for by current workers in some organization.
In the US, I occasionally get a letter from the Social Security Administration telling me of my "Social Security savings account" value. Of course I know this number is bullcrud because my S.S. contributions are paying retirees right now; you don't get "your money" back from Social Security; you never did and never will...

 

[Core Imposter]

Children are the blessing of the Lord and as we reject Him, we fade away. Of course, you know from the Bible how this all ends. Destruction by fire.

I guess it's different depending on where you live. To me a retiree's pension is (at least partially) paid for by current workers in some organization.
In the US, I occasionally get a letter from the Social Security Administration telling me of my "Social Security savings account" value. Of course I know this number is bullcrud because my S.S. contributions are paying retirees right now; you don't get "your money" back from Social Security; you never did and never will...

Young people would be smart to save for retirement, but Social Security will always be available. A staggering number of current and future retirees have nothing else to live on and the economy depends on every dollar being spent. Even after the dollar collapses due to all the money printing, they will send out the checks. The rich will eventually be taxed.

They will hit the number they send you adjusted up for inflation. But the value won't hold. You will desperately need funds of your own to avoid living one step from the street. And of course, we now have already a lot of people drawing checks who are living in their cars.

 

[PPQ_Purple]

Children are the blessing of the Lord and as we reject Him, we fade away. Of course, you know from the Bible how this all ends. Destruction by fire.

You say that as if it were a bad thing. I mean, have you read the ending to that book? If nothing else it is suitably epic.

 

[Core Imposter]

You say that as if it were a bad thing. I mean, have you read the ending to that book? If nothing else it is suitably epic.

Well, to be accurate we get a new earth.



I have to toss in a line to scare the sinners here and there.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I guess it's different depending on where you live. To me a retiree's pension is (at least partially) paid for by current workers in some organization.
In the US, I occasionally get a letter from the Social Security Administration telling me of my "Social Security savings account" value. Of course I know this number is bullcrud because my S.S. contributions are paying retirees right now; you don't get "your money" back from Social Security; you never did and never will...

I have gotten back almost as much I put in and I've only been retired 8 years.