Modern Civilization Sustainable?

[Birdjaguar]

Well, to be accurate we get a new earth.



I have to toss in a line to scare the sinners here and there.

People have been hearing that it is immanent for 2000 years. Crying wolf is common among some Christian.

 

[Core Imposter]

People have been hearing that it is immanent for 2000 years. Crying wolf is common among some Christian.

You seem to have forgotten the ending of the story.

 

[Birdjaguar]

You seem to have forgotten the ending of the story.

Not at all. The one from Corinthians is very explicit: God will be all in all. No exceptions and the devil is included.

 

[Core Imposter]

Not at all. The one from Corinthians is very explicit: God will be all in all. No exceptions and the devil is included.

I was referring to the story wherein the wolf finally showed up.

 

[PPQ_Purple]

I was referring to the story wherein the wolf finally showed up.

Whether he shows up or not does not change the sad fact that Christians have been crying his name for so long that the hype and anticipation that should be present at such an event has looped all the way over to complete flaccid indifference. It's like a movie or video game that just takes way too long to develop and yet the hype train won't shut up until at the end you just don't care any more.

I mean, sure, should the time come for mankind to go out in a blaze of glory as the forces of good and evil have one last go at each other in a war to end all wars between hell and heaven I'll go and watch.

But the excitement just isn't there. And I don't know if the problem here is that the prophets have been too zealous or if the apocalypse is trapped in some sort of development hell or what. But that's the sad fact of it.

 

[Crezth]

There's a world of difference between 0.8 TFR and 1.6 TFR, one is sudden demographic collapse the other is managed decline (especially if supplemented with immigration).

I think below-replacement fertility rates are almost inevitable in societies with high individual freedom + high economic inequality/status competition + ready access to contraception. Since lowering individual freedom is, in my humble opinion, barbaric, that leaves reducing status competition. It's probably doable, but hard.

But this is all just opinions right, because no one has ever proved the assumption that societies that are free have less kids. It’s just something that societies with less kids tell their populations. Like yeah maybe you’re having less kids because you’re so free. But it could be that they’re slowly killing us all off. Like replacing us greatly.

 

[Birdjaguar]

I was referring to the story wherein the wolf finally showed up.

"Crying wolf" is a cliché about pretending that danger is near when it is not. The actual story is irrelevant to the cliché I've applied to some Christians about the end times. You just side stepped the issue and are ignoring 2000 years of Christian history. I quoted your post about the "new earth". which I guess you see as an end point and I pointed to a different ending that is in the Bible.

 

[amadeus]

Speaking in broad strokes about the future, I’m hoping that advancements in energy and robotics will provide enough of a buffer to where an increasing share of elderly people can be supported with fewer human workers.

 

[Zardnaar]

But this is all just opinions right, because no one has ever proved the assumption that societies that are free have less kids. It’s just something that societies with less kids tell their populations. Like yeah maybe you’re having less kids because you’re so free. But it could be that they’re slowly killing us all off. Like replacing us greatly.

It's not an authoritarian vs democracy thing. Look at China for example. Same process in USSR as well.

Once you industrialized birthrate goes down.

If you're not talking about economics or climate change, I guess I don't know what you are talking about.

Link? Graphic? Explanation?

I don't think there's much in human societies or culture that's immutable or permanent. For example, I believe a time-traveler could only go back a few hundred years and still understand most of the Western European languages. I think French and English would be almost completely useless languages to a professional time-traveler. German and Spanish, a little more. Mandarin Chinese is similar to English, in terms of how far back you could use it. I remember Chow Yun Fat saying that learning Qing Dynasty Mandarin for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was like learning Shakespearean English - he could do it, but it was work. Cantonese is quite a bit older, I believe. I don't know about Arabic or Farsi or Hindi. Some smaller languages today are actually older than we think. I remember in the television series Beforeigners, someone noted that people from contemporary Iceland were able to communicate with the time-traveling Vikings, but people in contemporary Norway could not. I think modern speakers of Quechua (an indigenous South American language) would be able to time-travel back to the Incan Empire and get by. I wonder how similar modern Hebrew is to its older version(s)? A professional time-traveler might be smart to learn Hebrew and Cantonese.

Anyway, I suspect that 1,000 years from now, the global primacy of the United States will look fairly short. Maybe a couple-hundred years? Our impact has been massive in a short period of time, but of course we aren't the first culture you can say that about. I imagine parts of our culture will stand the test of time, as parts of other cultures before us have.

Google population pyramid of your choice of OECD country.

 

[Crezth]

It's not an authoritarian vs democracy thing. Look at China for example. Same process in USSR as well.

Once you industrialized birthrate goes down.

Ah, so it’s industry that’s killing us.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Ah, so it’s industry that’s killing us.

I think it's more accurate to say that big families are a stabilizer in societies without mechanization. More labor for the family farm, less chance of starvation, and allows for more marriage alliances, which may give more access to resources in the event of crop failure. Less need of either post mechanization.

Industry just makes us less joyful. I suspect it makes us juuuust depressed enough that we fall a little short of the natural, replacement level birthrate.

 

[Farm Boy]

2000 years of Christian history

Lots of people really really don't like hearing from people who have spent lived lifetimes assimilating the thoughts of many lived lifetimes.

The slower kids always think they know everything.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think it's more accurate to say that big families are a stabilizer in societies without mechanization. More labor for the family farm, less chance of starvation, and allows for more marriage alliances, which may give more access to resources in the event of crop failure. Less need of either post mechanization.

Industry just makes us less joyful. I suspect it makes us juuuust depressed enough that we fall a little short of the natural, replacement level birthrate.

Agricultural more kids more hands plus retirement.

Urbanization another mouth to feed.

Ah, so it’s industry that’s killing us.

Sort of. Family size decreases with urbanization, education and contraceptives.

 

[Valka D'Ur]

I think modern speakers of Quechua (an indigenous South American language) would be able to time-travel back to the Incan Empire and get by.

Before or after Spanish gets into the mix?

 

[Birdjaguar]

Civilization will continue mostly unabated. Its global scope will shift as it has always done. Climate change will make new winners and losers.

 

[Crezth]

I think it's more accurate to say that big families are a stabilizer in societies without mechanization. More labor for the family farm, less chance of starvation, and allows for more marriage alliances, which may give more access to resources in the event of crop failure. Less need of either post mechanization.

Industry just makes us less joyful. I suspect it makes us juuuust depressed enough that we fall a little short of the natural, replacement level birthrate.

Yes, hence in the long term it kills us off.

 

[Senethro]

Someone knew about climate change. Someone knew about tobacco. Someone knew about thalidomide.

I'm very suspicious (and admit I have no evidence at all for it) that someone knows about the impact upon human fertility that accumulative environmental exposure to industrial society has.

 

[Samson]

Someone knew about thalidomide

That is a TIL.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Yes, hence in the long term it kills us off.

I don't like how you've phrased it. It's not like it's a virus. I'd probably say that our customs and values don't really meet certain challenges well, and that leads to less reproduction, but that's not the same as industry killing us.

Long term, we probably adapt our social structures and norms to handle the depression issue. New religions, new notions of community.

 

[Narz]

Someone knew about climate change. Someone knew about tobacco. Someone knew about thalidomide.

I'm very suspicious (and admit I have no evidence at all for it) that someone knows about the impact upon human fertility that accumulative environmental exposure to industrial society has.

It's not a big conspiracy that pollution, rubbish food and now plastic is slowly destroying us on a cellular level.

I think only genetic engineering can ultimately save us.