More or less countries in future?

[GoodGame]

I think in the far future, with centuries of stability, there will be one nation, but for the next century I predict more balkanization under the umbrella of strategic organizations.

 

[abefar]

I think we will see more countries in the future, due to the difficulties of uniting the different people into one state without the use military force. State building without nation building is a thing of the past.

 

[CaptainF]

I'm not so much concerned with countries as nation-states. I hope there will be far less of those in the future, preferably none.

 

[abefar]

I'm not so much concerned with countries as nation-states. I hope there will be far less of those in the future, preferably none.

I belive that your hope is futile, most new states if not all are based on nations.

 

[Flying Pig]

Yep - people with a lot in common stick together.

 

[PiMan]

Only large nation states like China or the US have a chance of maintaining their independence, others will have to integrate with neigbouring culturally similar nations.

Large in area or large in power? Because Australia only has one culturally similar neighbour (New Zealand).

 

[Squonk]

More countries, but grouped in confederations.

 

[Flying Pig]

There are only a few confederations today; and Japan is the only MEDC not in one. Amalgamating those together probably won't happen.

 

[civ_king]

I'd like to eventually see a North American Union, so that would cut a few down.

the US and Canada might fuse, and hopefully some in Central America will intergrate

Short term:

more countries, you mentioned few examples. Belgium could split, Basques could get independent, Abkhazia etc., there are dozens of separatist movements with a chance of success. Nationalism is still a strong force in today's world.

Long term:

less countries. More regions will try to imitate the EU and integrate, while the EU will gradually become more and more united (ending in federation within 50 years or so). Nation states will be outdated by then and most people will see that. Only large nation states like China or the US have a chance of maintaining their independence, others will have to integrate with neigbouring culturally similar nations.

I agree

 

[Flying Pig]

Austrailia and New Zealand are my favourites for fusion, then the two Koreas, then china and Taiwan, then Singapore and Micronesia

 

[Evie]

More nations: as in, geo-cultural entities - people who share a culture, a language, live in a defined homeland, and probably as a result, more countries. In the short run.

In the long run? Countries will become less and less relevant - the Supranational Entities will be where it's at. As a result, countries will become more numerous within those - supranational entities will take care of the requirements of pragmatism, so countries will be an expression of nationalism more than anything else. F.E., if there is a North American Union that provide for common defense, abolition of economic borders, etc, odds are Quebecers will lean toward being members in their own rights, not as a province of Canada.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Big countries never work; ethnic groups want their liberty. Even in Sri Lanka, they started a war for it; same in Ireland, Catalonia, Kosovo, Cyprus, Rwanda...

*Cough* America *Cough*, we're big and have a full range of ethnic groups, and we've held up pretty well for the last 300 years.

 

[Camikaze]

Austrailia and New Zealand are my favourites for fusion

It would merely be a formality.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

I'd like to eventually see a North American Union, so that would cut a few down.

Ohhhh, You want to join as Canada's 11th province, with Mexico as the 4th territory. Well, sure, but you have to start at the bottom, scrubbing Parliament's toilets.

 

[cardgame]

*Cough* America *Cough*, we're big and have a full range of ethnic groups, and we've held up pretty well for the last 300 years.

what he said

 

[TheLastOne36]

There will be more unions in the future, trying to copy the EU is my guess. The first to do so would be the Latin/South American union and ASEAN. In the future, perhaps a sub-saharan Africa union, since the current borders are to messed up to redraw.

 

[TheLastOne36]

Large in area or large in power? Because Australia only has one culturally similar neighbour (New Zealand).

Australia will likely be an exception.

On a related note, what do we do about the Pacific Islands? A Pacific Island Union?

 

[Babbler]

Long term, I agree that many state functions will be transferred to EU-like regional blocs. Many of the smaller EU problably do not need an army, and the financial crisis has highlighted the need for at least pan-European, if not international banking laws and regulations. But short term, is there more seperation and state break up? I not quite as sure. Predictions of the breakup of Canada and Belgium, for example, have been on going for some time, and yet they remain. It's probably because not enough really want to go through, and that staying together is less problematic than remaining united. I am not saying that in future Quebec and Flanders will never become independent, but that Canada and Belgium are far more stable than is often appreciated.

 

[Narz]

*Cough* America *Cough*, we're big and have a full range of ethnic groups, and we've held up pretty well for the last 300 years.

Lets see how we do thru the next 300.

 

[Evie]

Predictions of the breakup of Canada and Belgium, for example, have been on going for some time, and yet they remain. It's probably because not enough really want to go through, and that staying together is less problematic than remaining united. I am not saying that in future Quebec and Flanders will never become independent, but that Canada and Belgium are far more stable than is often appreciated.

Probably, yes. Short of some massive Eff-up on Canada's part, I think independence of Quebec isn't for tomorrow.

But as I also noted, if the trend toward greater integration of countries continue, and we get some sort of North American Union, then Canada/Quebec's time grows short.