Only 30 Civs in base game (+ Shawnee)

I didn't say that it was; I merely said that there's an argument to be made that it might be. Whereas I can't think of any Modern civs that might be in the game that would use the Panzer-IV except Germany.

If both Germany and Russia are in, that certainly wouldn't bother me.

The star being red might be happenstance of whatever leader it is. Another shot has a white star (and tan stripe).

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That is Buganda's symbol. It's a bit different than the one they've shown, with this one only having a half colored in shield, but it's undeniably Buganda's symbol with the shield and two spears, implying the red star is a civ's emblem or maybe an indpendant power.

The Pz 4 is used by Japan, presumably from the Axis connection, using an appropriate redish-brown paint. Not great that modern era units don't seem to have the deluxe treatment that antiquity does as far as cultural variety of units.
 
Ok so just explaining my "logic". There's bit of the following pattern:
CONTINENTAL REGIONANTIQUITYEXPLORATIONMODERN
North America + Oceania1 : Mississippi2 : Hawaii - Shawnee(DLC)1 : America
Middle America + South America1 : Maya1 : Inca~
Africa2 : Aksum - Egypt1 : Songhai1 : Buganda
Europe2 : Greece - Rome2 : Normandy - Spain2 : Britain - France
West Asia1 : Persia1 : Abbasid~
South Asia + Southeast Asia2 : Khmer - Maurya2 : Chola - Majapahit2 : Mughal - Siam
East Asia + North Asia1 : Han2 : Ming - Mongolia1 : Meiji
If this pattern has any kind of real meaning, and if the Qing (a second East Asian civ) leak is real, the 2 slots left in Modern would go one for someone in Middle America + South America, most likely Mexico, while the other would go to someone in West Asia, leaving no room for Germany or Russia.
But yes, I know, this classification is highly subjective, is just a impression I had. For me it would be weird not seeing Germany on a Civ's vanilla roster, but who knows
Agree with the point but think the Civs are in pairs. Feel Russia would make more sense for Mongols then Meiji

RomeSpainFranceEurope
GreeceNormansBritainEurope
EgyptSonghaiBugandaMENA
AksumAbbasidOttomans?MENA
Maurya CholaMughalS and SE Asia
KhmerMajaphahitSiamS and SE Asia
Han MingQingCentral and E Asia
PersiaMongolsRussiaCentral and E Asia
MississippianShawnee/HawaiiUSAAmericas
MayanIncaMexicoAmericas
Meiji (DLC)
Germany (DLC)
 
Agree with the point but think the Civs are in pairs. Feel Russia would make more sense for Mongols then Meiji

RomeSpainFranceEurope
GreeceNormansBritainEurope
EgyptSonghaiBugandaMENA
AksumAbbasidOttomans?MENA
MauryaCholaMughalS and SE Asia
KhmerMajaphahitSiamS and SE Asia
HanMingQingCentral and E Asia
PersiaMongolsRussiaCentral and E Asia
MississippianShawnee/HawaiiUSAAmericas
MayanIncaMexicoAmericas
Meiji (DLC)
Germany (DLC)
I think you should invert Aksum and Egypt (even if doesn't chage too much).
 
Not that crazy, we’ve had a thread and occasional comments in this vein across other discussions. With the remaining slots and the number of soft- and hard-confirmed civs, at least one of the Britain-Germany-Russia trio will not be there in vanilla.
We have 3 slots and 4 civilizations pretending - France, Germany, Mexico and Russia. My estimation is what we'll get France, Germany and Russia as they always were core civs and Mexico will come in DLC. But sure, there are other opinions.
 
We have 3 slots and 4 civilizations pretending - France, Germany, Mexico and Russia. My estimation is what we'll get France, Germany and Russia as they always were core civs and Mexico will come in DLC. But sure, there are other opinions.
France is definetly in. Britain is the one with differing opinions on if Firaxis has truly confirmed it. Still likely I think.

Mexico has a fair amount of evidence. A modern age city with the Palacio de Bellas Artes and Spanish style architecture fitting of Mexico was in the reveal trailer. Doesn't confirm it, but distinct architecture and wonders helped predict other civs that were confirmed.

Germany is at the very least tied for least evidence, with only the Brandenburg Gate and panzer 4 seen. There also looked to be a ww1 German infantry model shown off in the middle of the modern units below. I really want Germany, but for now I think it will be DLC.
IMG_1236.jpeg
 
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They are not going to leave out Germany. It‘s too big of a market, it‘s off too big historical importance and it creates a great triplet of Britian-France-Germany to counter each other in one era.

That matters more than some sort of symmetry or groups.

Now if the first DLC comes out within 2 months - maybe. But I just can‘t see it. Now with Russia, I can see a few reasons to leave it be for a few DLCs.
 
They are not going to leave out Germany. It‘s too big of a market, it‘s off too big historical importance and it creates a great triplet of Britian-France-Germany to counter each other in one era.

That matters more than some sort of symmetry or groups.

Now if the first DLC comes out within 2 months - maybe. But I just can‘t see it. Now with Russia, I can see a few reasons to leave it be for a few DLCs.
The Switch eShop suggests the first DLC civs will be out in March, with all seven pieces of the Crossroads of the World collection (I think one of those seven is the whole bundle, so it's still 2 leaders/4 civs) out by March 25, six weeks after launch. The name implies more middle eastern civs rather than Russia or Germany though.
 
They are not going to leave out Germany. It‘s too big of a market, it‘s off too big historical importance and it creates a great triplet of Britian-France-Germany to counter each other in one era.

That matters more than some sort of symmetry or groups.

Now if the first DLC comes out within 2 months - maybe. But I just can‘t see it. Now with Russia, I can see a few reasons to leave it be for a few DLCs.
The market for a German civ is the most compelling part. Not much I have to say about that. My inference is that the last 2 spots are between Britain, Germany, and Russia.
IMG_1231.jpeg

The T34 in this image has a red star on it's turret. In another trailer, Buganda's emblem is in the same spot on turret.

IMG_1233.jpeg

This means that the red star is either a civ's emblem or an independant power's. Given the red star's prominent use as communist imagery, while also being on a T34, really seems to me that this is Russia's as opposed to any other suspected civ. Then again, we've only seen civs with white emblems with no color.

Until we see more, I certainly don't think a modern Russian civ is any less likely and certainly can't be ruled out. If you want to argue Germany over Britain/England, now perhaps I could get behind that.

Whatever one isn't in the base game will certainly be in a DLC and be used as a selling point.
 
I'm gonna put my order of likeliness at:
1. Mexico
2. Qing
3. Russia
4. Germany
But there's not much between them

I'd be surprised if Mexico is out. They aren't an obvious choice compared to Germany and Russia, but without them the South/Central american civs lack an end point. Given the graphical evidence, I think Mexico is the most likely of the 4. Not something I saw myself saying when previews started....

Ming into Meiji would be a big yikes, and some form of PR nightmare. Part of me wants to say there's no way firaxis would pick Qing over Germany or Russia, but I don't think they want to touch the china/japan rivalry with a 10 foot barge pole... Another example of why having historic civ trajectories might have been firaxis intentionally stamping on their own foot.

I'd also thought current geopolitics would maybe make Russia less likely, but I think overall Germany maybe is the one which loses out since Russia just fits better for a lot of trajectories. Both civs also suffer from needing their civ designs to represent the modern era, and while both have been powerful, neither has exactly showered themselves with glory. I'd imagine they'd be modelled explicitly after Imperial Russia or Prussia, but still not squeaky clean...
 
So one thing I'm curious about. I'm not sure where to ask it, so I'll do it here. If the other continent is populated by hidden civs, what's the point of really exploring in the exploration age? Presumably there will be no room left to settle the other continent, and no goody huts either. And you can't trade luxuries anymore. Sure you can do other diplomatic actions with the other civs, but so can you with your own continent. I think I would prefer it if there were only independent peoples on the other continent.
We don't know yet, but one possibility that comes to mind, seeing the minimap of the Shawnee stream when they get the later save, is that the world would be divided in 3 parts (as in 3 parts completed divided from one another by ocean tiles). One part, about 50% of the full map is where you start on ancient. Then a another part with 25~30% of the map is where the other civs starts (which is a smaller amount that the ones in the initial map as things like the 5/5/8 player count suggests). And the rest of the map is in a third part, completely untouched by any players, and up for being explored by whoever is faster at getting the techs during exploration, with at most independent powers.
And Resources on a Distant Lands might have unique modifiers applied to them. Like perhaps they are leveled as “Exotic” and confer a bonus for acquisition, or they’re needed for the Exploration Economic Legacy Path.
That is a quite interesting idea. Maybe they could even make it that some resources only spawn on the other part of the map, so if one wants access to whatever specific bonuses they confer, they would need to proactively explore and settle those parts or trade with civs who are there.
 
I'd also thought current geopolitics would maybe make Russia less likely, but I think overall Germany maybe is the one which loses out since Russia just fits better for a lot of trajectories. Both civs also suffer from needing their civ designs to represent the modern era, and while both have been powerful, neither has exactly showered themselves with glory. I'd imagine they'd be modelled explicitly after Imperial Russia or Prussia, but still not squeaky clean...
I'm acctually also sort of surprised, that the geopolical situation, or better said, the war that Russia is currently waging against Ukraine, hasn't been considered more in this discussion. I mean, Firaxis apparently tries to be very "policitally correct" (in the lack of a better word) with all of its Civ selection, but would pick Russia as a Modern state? Exploration Age (under Catherine the Great) maybe, but Modern Russia, seriously? Or are they maybe going for the Sovjet Union?
 
I'm gonna put my order of likeliness at:
1. Mexico
2. Qing
3. Russia
4. Germany
But there's not much between them

I'd be surprised if Mexico is out. They aren't an obvious choice compared to Germany and Russia, but without them the South/Central american civs lack an end point. Given the graphical evidence, I think Mexico is the most likely of the 4. Not something I saw myself saying when previews started....

Ming into Meiji would be a big yikes, and some form of PR nightmare. Part of me wants to say there's no way firaxis would pick Qing over Germany or Russia, but I don't think they want to touch the china/japan rivalry with a 10 foot barge pole... Another example of why having historic civ trajectories might have been firaxis intentionally stamping on their own foot.

I'd also thought current geopolitics would maybe make Russia less likely, but I think overall Germany maybe is the one which loses out since Russia just fits better for a lot of trajectories. Both civs also suffer from needing their civ designs to represent the modern era, and while both have been powerful, neither has exactly showered themselves with glory. I'd imagine they'd be modelled explicitly after Imperial Russia or Prussia, but still not squeaky clean...
Very well said. My thoughts exactly for the ranking of likeliness. I do think Germany will be represented as the German Empire, just because the devs talked about representing civs at their height, and the German Empire was more or less under Prussian rule anyway. Plus it adds more options for civics, unique units, buildings, and all the other lovely stuff that civs get.

but would pick Russia as a Modern state? Exploration Age (under Catherine the Great) maybe, but Modern Russia, seriously? Or are they maybe going for the Sovjet Union?
Catherine fits in the modern age (after 1700) and would be a solid leader option. Doing post-Soviet Russia is out of the question. I think Imperial is a safe bet, but Soviet is a possibility and there is a discussion to be had about its possible inclusion. Maybe even an amalgam of the two.
 
I'm gonna put my order of likeliness at:
1. Mexico
2. Qing
3. Russia
4. Germany
But there's not much between them

I'd be surprised if Mexico is out. They aren't an obvious choice compared to Germany and Russia, but without them the South/Central american civs lack an end point. Given the graphical evidence, I think Mexico is the most likely of the 4. Not something I saw myself saying when previews started....

If the Abbasids can go into Buganda, it's not too farfetched to say that Firaxis wouldn't have a problem turning South/Central Native Americans into Brazil, US, or some other North American Native civ
 
I think you have to do some pretty severe contortions to try to force everything into a regional pattern (North America is somehow related to Oceania?)
I know grouping them together is a crime, I only did that for convenience since Hawaii > America is a bit obvious and an Ocenian line alone would be a single civ.
 
Russia is interesting because you could go full USSR final era ideology throwdown or imperial which might actually fit what they are trying to do with the exploration age (aka grabbing heaps of land plus religion). They've already shown that dates have minimal impact on where they are placing factions.
 
Ok so just explaining my "logic". There's bit of the following pattern:
CONTINENTAL REGIONANTIQUITYEXPLORATIONMODERN
North America + Oceania1 : Mississippi2 : Hawaii - Shawnee(DLC)1 : America
Middle America + South America1 : Maya1 : Inca~
Africa2 : Aksum - Egypt1 : Songhai1 : Buganda
Europe2 : Greece - Rome2 : Normandy - Spain2 : Britain - France
West Asia1 : Persia1 : Abbasid~
South Asia + Southeast Asia2 : Khmer - Maurya2 : Chola - Majapahit2 : Mughal - Siam
East Asia + North Asia1 : Han2 : Ming - Mongolia1 : Meiji
If this pattern has any kind of real meaning, and if the Qing (a second East Asian civ) leak is real, the 2 slots left in Modern would go one for someone in Middle America + South America, most likely Mexico, while the other would go to someone in West Asia, leaving no room for Germany or Russia.
But yes, I know, this classification is highly subjective, is just a impression I had. For me it would be weird not seeing Germany on a Civ's vanilla roster, but who knows
My suspicion is stuck Qing in on the end on Han and Ming, then put Egypt and Mongolia and Meiji in with Persia and Abbasid as a "rest of Asia and mid east" category. Russia could fit there as final modern, or ottomans but evidence isn't mounting for them.

Saying that, I don't believe in any of this as a frame of understanding inclusion of civilizations at all. It doesn't seem to me that historical or even any kind of consistent regional links have been thought about as requirements.

I suspect they've thought "well we've got to have at least one per continent per age", and then extras over the top will just overlap regional with neighbouring continents.

Nothing we've seen seems to suggest they are going for any kind of predictable logical flow through the ages, except for with India and China, which they seem to have treated as their own continents.
 
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I'm acctually also sort of surprised, that the geopolical situation, or better said, the war that Russia is currently waging against Ukraine, hasn't been considered more in this discussion. I mean, Firaxis apparently tries to be very "policitally correct" (in the lack of a better word) with all of its Civ selection, but would pick Russia as a Modern state? Exploration Age (under Catherine the Great) maybe, but Modern Russia, seriously? Or are they maybe going for the Sovjet Union?
Modern can be quite earlier them nowadays, like the 1800s. And from what we saw so far, it does seems they are avoiding very modern version of countries, exactly to avoid getting mixed with politics. So having a modern russia more based on russia before the ussr can fit modern and not be a problem.
 
Catherine fits in the modern age (after 1700) and would be a solid leader option. Doing post-Soviet Russia is out of the question. I think Imperial is a safe bet, but Soviet is a possibility and there is a discussion to be had about its possible inclusion. Maybe even an amalgam of the two.
if the Red Star is the civ symbol as the 2 examples with the T-34 are showing, then it's more probably the USSR.
 
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