Possible implications of the death of Bin Laden

[zjl56]

I do hope that this can serve as a sort of closure to Afghanistan, and that Obama can use really the final piece he needs to leave Afghanistan.

Beyond this, I have been thinking that our entire foreign policy in the region is seriously flawed. We have been consistently trying to strengthen Pakistan and have given them untold amount of aid and yet this is how they repaid us, all in the while we have been royally pissing off India (who has done nothing but try to be a good friend to us). We have been able to construct such a brilliant system of foreign alliances between us and Taiwan/ Korea/ Japan, and that between Israel and the U.S. I could see a similar relation between us and India, and yet we continue to support Pakistan regardless of their stupidity.

 

[aronnax]

I actually think that the death of Osama will be a blow to Al-Qaeda in general.
Yeah, there will be the whole martyr thing and inspired some to join in vengeance.
But symbolism is important. I mean, the US Dollar got a jump from his death announcement. In the long-term, it is a big blow to AQ because they have lost their unifying head, a big morale loss. There may be a number two to succeed him but it's a bit like Lyndon B Johnson succeeding JFK.

 

[Shekwan]

I think:

- Renewed vigour in Al-Q and affiliates. Vengeance recruits.
- Significant political boost for Obama.
- Possible excuse to get out of Afghanistan OR more into Pakistan
- Great opportunity to stop the War on Terror discourse.

 

[Abaddon]

 

[Labtec600]

Well, and we have some thinking to do. We already knew that he had some popular support. And we already knew that there was Al Qaeda-esque sentiments in the region. But to keep his location so quiet, in such a busy area, in such opulence, means that the popular support was way higher than thought.

I kinda assumed that a percentage of the population supported him, but in a shamed way, where they'd not really admit it. They'd eventually find each other, but would have to be subtle. This seems more brazen.

I'd also like to know what the attacking forces were armed with, I've been thinking about carbines lately, and was wondering what a pro would bring to such an event.

Article i read stated the US was looking into this for the past four years. But we need to cut our aid to pakistan we give them to "fight terror".

 

[Bestbank Tiger]

Right under their noses. Best place to be perhaps?

I heard about a drug dealer once who planted his crops at the end of a runway used by DEA planes. Took a while for them to notice.

 

[onedreamer]

I guess it depends on how succesful Al-Q's retalliation is (because they certainly will try). If they can be nipped in the bud, this could be a significant hit to them, but that's a big "if".

If their (supposed) retaliation succeeds or not doesn't really seem so relevant to me. Terrorism wins when it just exists because its existance creates concern ("terror"). Making of Bin Laden a martyr will only grant more support for Al Qaeda. A reason more why they should have made bigger efforts to take him alive, rather than just sneak in, shoot him dead and claim "mission accomplished". WTH are we still stuck at Lex Talionis?

 

[Thedrin]

Does this really make Bin Laden a martyr?

I could understand if a team of SEALs or special forces assassinated him on 12/9/01, but in the eyes of the public (including Arabic/muslim public*) Bin Laden hasn't done very much in the last decade.

* I have nothing to back up this statement. It could be completely wrong.

 

[Abaddon]

Does this really make Bin Laden a martyr?

I could understand if a team of SEALs or special forces assassinated him on 12/9/01, but in the eyes of the public (including Arabic/muslim public*) Bin Laden hasn't done very much in the last decade.

* I have nothing to back up this statement. It could be completely wrong.

Active or not, he is still seen as the figurehead of Alkieda (sp) world wide

 

[Thedrin]

That does not mean his death makes him a martyr.

 

[Holycannoli]

Yes he's now a marty in the eyes of many a crazed idiot. We are talking about people who think it's a good thing to crash planes into buildings and blow themselves up to kill ordinary civilians.

It's good we buried at him sea (even though I'm now just a bit skeptical because of the lack of photographic or video proof that can be confirmed by experts), they cannot build a shrine at his burial site.

 

[aronnax]

That does not mean his death makes him a martyr.

Given the state of Islamic terrorism, it's a given that he would be painted a martyr.

Thank goodness he wasn't supporting an off shoot of Shite Islam.

 

[Communisto]

The fear of making someone a "martyr" is really obtuse. Given enough time and coupled with the ebb and flow of public opinion, anyone can and will be made into one if it serves the right purpose.

 

[Boundless]

I think it will have little long term effects. This group, his ideas have spread well beyond the man by now. There will never be an end to the "War of Terror"

Completely agree. Look what happened after Saddam Hussein was beheaded. His death didn't stop all the problems in Iraq afterwards by any stretch of the imagination. 3 US troops were killed in January of this year, two of whom deliberately shot by Iraqi soliders (http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/15/3-american-soldiers-killed-in-iraq/), and Hussein was killed on 30th December 2006... 3 years down the line...
I don't expect any different now!

 

[Thedrin]

Holycannoli:
Yes he's now a marty in the eyes of many a crazed idiot. We are talking about people who think it's a good thing to crash planes into buildings and blow themselves up to kill ordinary civilians.

Aronnax:
Given the state of Islamic terrorism, it's a given that he would be painted a martyr.

I don't doubt that people who already looked up to and were inspired by Bin Laden will continue to be inspired by and look up to Bin Laden. I also don't think that anyone is going to become disillusioned with him as a result of this. But if such people do view him as a martyr, they simply have a shiny new title to bestow upon him*.

But to such people it makes no practical difference.

I have always been under the impression that the fear of creating a martyr is that you provide a cause with a symbol that inspires people to join that cause. I do not see that happening here.

In this case that would mean:
- the fear of creating a martyr by killing Bin Laden would be the fear of inspiring people who would not have otherwise joined Al Qaeda (or similar organisations) to join Al Qaeda.

* To anyone who cares about the symantics and definition of the word martyr, I'm not going to push the point about whether or not he is one.

 

[MobBoss]

I think that the fact that he was in a mansion, in the middle of a city, is telling. The 'vibe' was that the guy was cowering in a cave

Pakistan has a lot of explaining to do.

Yeah, that blows my mind. His pad was what, 100 yards from a military academy? Pakistan has some 'splainin to do.

edit: Xpost with Red

Totally agree. Today we should expect press from the Pakistani gov saying they were working with us the whole time....and then expect the White House and Pentagon to deny it.

I think this proves without a doubt that the Pakistani government has either been in collusion with AlQaeda then entire time, or has lost control of its own military assets in the NW sector to such an extent that they may as well be.

As to the other effects, I think Obama needs to be given credit where credit is due. But I do think this has occurred way too early to have any real impact by Nov of 2012. Sure it will be THE headline for a few weeks, but even this will fade, and the issues of the economy and jobs will be back.

So again, kudos for Obama for continuing to push in Pakistan, and not give up on the hunt, but I dont think that plays too well with the extreme anti-war left, even with having Osama's death in the offing. Heck there are people even right in this forum arguing we had no business being in Pakistan regardless. So, Obama makes big points with the independents in the meantime, gets some respect from the right (at least from some of us he does), and continues to alienate the more left by acting as if he were GWB ver 2.0 on issues like the war and closing Gitmo etc.

As to blowback and/or those type of repercussions: We have killed so many of the number 2 through 10 men in AlQaeda over the years that the only real target we kept missing was the #1 man himself. Now that we have finally accomplished that, the head of the snake has been removed, and the man seen as their overwhelming driving force is no longer at the helm. Since we can only speculate as to how much influence and control Osama was indeed having currently, but in losing their figurehead, it has to have taken a lot of the wind out of their sails.

 

[Brian Shanahan]

Completely agree. Look what happened after Saddam Hussein was beheaded. His death didn't stop all the problems in Iraq afterwards by any stretch of the imagination. 3 US troops were killed in January of this year, two of whom deliberately shot by Iraqi soliders (http://www.aolnews.com/2011/01/15/3-american-soldiers-killed-in-iraq/), and Hussein was killed on 30th December 2006... 3 years down the line...
I don't expect any different now!

The problems in Iraq at the time had nothing to do with Saddam. The way the US and allies denied democracy to the Iraqis, outright banned anything they didn't like, and the meddling (and gun running from) Iran were the reasons for that powder-keg blowing up. As soon as the US army rolled in in 2003 Saddam became an irrelevance.

And personally I don't think his death won't change that much, though it does leave what flimsy excuse the west have for their various occupations and meddlings in tatters. I remember reading a few months before that the Taliban were actually desperate to get rid of bin Laden due to him causing so much chaos within the country. So I always thought that September 11th was the last desperate throw of the dice by an organisation that was on the way out (heinous a crime and all as it was) in order to shore up it's position by attacking the "Great Satan". Frankly a proper international police action to capture him and bring him to justice would have been far more appropriate IMO, than the Carry On up the Khyber plan the neo-cons thought up.

 

[Truronian]

I can see what you mean about 2012 MobBoss, it is long way away. Nevertheless, I think this will play well for Obama come elections as it is a simple and (in the eyes of the public) significant accomplishment. What Obama has really lacked up until now is significant accomplishments. He's a president that has been slowly crawling towards (or away from in some cases) his campaign pledges, and I think there was a real chance that come 2012 he would be seen as a four year nothing.

{These are of course the observations of a Brit and are thus potentially wrong given that I know less about the US political scene than you and others on the forum.}

 

[MobBoss]

Truronian, even Jimmy Carter had a few success's but he was still Jimmy Carter. This isnt the one event that will make or break Obama come 2012. Its a very nice feather in his cap, true, but when his base objects to having troops and drones in Pakistan to begin with, the only real milage he gets from it is with independents - and its not going to be more important to them if the price of gas is 6 bucks a gallon by then, and unemployment is still 10% or higher.

 

[downtown]

The economy and jobs are still likely to be the biggest issues that decide the election, but I think it does make the Republican attack that Obama isn't fit to be a commander in chief, or doesn't have the spine or resolve...seem pretty hollow. Plus, this event will get brought up again next 9/11, and often on the campaign trail when discussing the war on terror.