Timeline
1859-
First oil well is drilled.
1960s-
‘Green Revolution’ industrializes agriculture.
2005-
Oil peak long past for most nations
Uranium peak, world
2006-
Oil peak Canada, Algeria
2007-
Oil peak Nigeria
Oil peak, world average
2009-
Oil peak United Arab Emirates, Iraq
Natural gas peak, USA
2010-
Oil peak, Kuwait
2011
Fukishama nuclear disaster, Japan
UG99 wheat pathogen strikes Africa and Asia
2012-
Coal extraction energy ratio peak, world
Aquifer failures in Saudi Arabia end wheat farming.
Increased irrigation stresses upon the Colorado River causes the US to renege on the “United States-Mexico Treaty for Utilization of Water”
2015
UG99 wheat pathogen spreads throughout the planet. Massive wheat crop failures lead to millions of deaths to hunger.
2016-
Recurrent large-scale brownouts begin causing large-scale economic slowdown worldwide.
2017-
Oil peak, Saudi Arabia
2018-
Economic depression spreads to the last bastions of economic growth (China, South-East Asia) leading to an unabated financial contraction worldwide that will not end until the 2080s.
First thorium-based atomic energy plants come online, India.
2019
Natural gas peak, Canada
Oceans breach Netherlands levees for the first time.
North Chinese aquifers fail leading to mass crop failures. Famine averted by rerouting Yangtze north through massive irrigation canals
2020
Colorado River runs dry before reaching the sea.
2021-
Buried oil-sands identified in Siberia
Rising fuel prices force agricultural revolution, de-mechanization, worldwide
2022-
Famines begin striking ‘developed’ nations on a scale not seen since prior to the industrial revolution.
Japan begins unpopular organized de-industrialization, population restrictions, and thorium nuclear power development programs.
Maghreb Union economic bloc evolves into a transnational military, economic and political entity.
2023-
Spain, Portugal and the European Union complete ambitious solar energy fields project across southern Spain and northern Africa.
Cruas nuclear power plant in southern France undergoes catastrophic failure with the meltdown conditions comparable to those of Chernobyl- much of southern France, the nearby Italian alps, and thanks to local wind conditions almost the entirety of north-western Italy become effectively un-inhabitable.
2024-
Ogallala aquifer fails. Massive famine across the US ensues.
2025-
Draft animals outnumber tractors, motorized agricultural tools in North America, Europe, and the rest of the world.
Sail-based transoceanic shipping returns and soon begins dominating trade.
Ongoing conflict between Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia escalates as the FARC are able to extend their control further and further as the Los Zetas and its sister cartels gains more and more influence in Mexico and the southern United States and the United States begins focusing more and more on energy concerns and less on the ‘war on drugs’.
2026-
Approximately half of Amazon River basin succumbs to desertification.
USA invades Venezuela and occupies Maracaibo lake and its oil reserves.
Maghreb Union seizes European solar fields in Africa.
Amidst popular unrest and violent resistance of the Japanese ‘de-industrialization’ program, the government ignores legislated call for elections, and reorganizes as a ‘one-party’, increasingly totalitarian and fascist, state.
2027-
Deindustrialization, Arab world
China, desperate for the fuel it needs to maintain its army in the face of both domestic and foreign instability, signs the “Manchurian Agreement”, whereby Russia would gain economic, resource and governance concessions in Manchuria in exchange for their oil.
Manchurian Liberation Movement begins lengthy guerrilla campaign for independence from both Russia and China
Turkey takes advantage of Indian technology and abundant local deposits of thorium to begin switching energy production to thorium atomics.
Under pressures from Venezuelan refugees, massive climate change in the Amazonian basin interior, and economic failure arising from rising energy prices, much of north-west Brazil secedes in the face of much reduced federal governance. The resulting, largely de-industrialized and suffering nearly anarchist state names itself ‘Amazonia’.
2028-
Coal extraction energy ratio peak, China
Deindustrialization, China
Hague abandoned to the rising seas.
2029-
Atomic-energy rich Islamic Republic of Iran seizes Iraq, Saudi Arabia and many ‘Arab’ nations in lightning war against scattered and disorganized tribes remaining after de-industrialization of the Arab world. Syria requests and receives Turkish assistance. Iran renames itself the Ummat Al-Mu’minin
2030-
Uranium depleted everywhere but Canada, Australia, Kazakhstan
Failure of the hospital systems nearly complete in ‘developed’ world.
FARC controls 65% of Colombian countryside.
Ukraine splits as the eastern half votes to join Russia and keep the energy flowing for awhile longer.
2031-
Canada begins agricultural assistance of USA.
Singapore abandoned to rising seas.
Iberian union forms from the union of Spain and Portugal as Portugal grows increasingly dependent upon Spanish energy from their solar fields and is increasingly de-industrializing faster then much of remaining Europe
Egypt, seeing the success of Turkey’s thorium energy program and aware of their own abundant deposits begins development of their own Thorium-based atomic energy program.
2032-
Russia reneges on the “Manchurian Agreement” in the face of growing energy scarcity and its own military’s demand for energy.
Syria admitted to Turkey after local referendum on unification.
Japan introduces eugenics project to ensure purity of the junketsu blood.
Belarus joins Russia in peaceful referendum (though with suspected shadowy Russian involvement)
2033-
Manchurians gain independence and force Russian army out of their lands.
Sunni Islam rapidly receding across the Persian and Arab world in the face of Ummat Al-Mu’minin control.
2034-
The Mexican government effectively loses the ‘war on the drug cartels’ when these, united under the victorious bloody-handed Los Zetas cartel effectively carve a no-go zone in north-western México where the government dares not send police, tax-collectors or even soldiers.
2035-
Russia hoards natural gas, cuts it off for all but most elite and loyal Europeans, Russians, Chinese.
Manchuria invades Siberia, aiming for its natural gas reserves, and is repelled by Russian bioweapons, killing hundreds of millions in China and Korea and eastern Russia.
America occupies Philippines in an effort to secure offshore oil reserves.
Oregon, Washington, Idaho secede from USA, under pressure from a grass-roots ‘green, anti-war’ movement, form nation of ‘Cascadia’.
Latvians join Belarus and much of Ukraine in joining with Russia.
2036-
Ummat Al-Mu’minin invades Kazakhstan and central Asian nations to seize uranium supplies. Russia, keen to develop these itself, declares war.
Reunion of North and South Korea in the face of growing food and energy scarcity and cessation of Chinese agricultural support for North Korea and American military support for South Korea
FARC and the Colombian military engage in a massive decisive battle with the Colombian government winning a pyrrhic victory.
Ummat Al-Mu’minin exports thorium power technology and economic support to Bangladesh. Bangladesh parliament declares Shia Islam their state religion (much to the displeasure of the mostly Sunni population).
2037-
New Orleans abandoned to rising seas.
American Pacific fleet struck repeatedly by Chinese nuclear missiles while American military Internet traffic and satellites are shut down by Chinese cyberwarfare.
California secedes from USA, signs separate peace with China.
Dwindling Canadian agricultural assistance leads to USA concentrating assistance in the north-east.
Instability and secessionism in the American Midwest as crop failures continue and the federal government is unable to alleviate hardships. Several large corporations unite to form ‘Crosshairs’ and become de facto government in the region.
Manchuria takes advantage of Ummat Al-Mu’minin -Russian war to invade eastern Russia and seize much of those lands.
Japan begins enforcing euthanasia of the elderly and genetically ‘unfit’, as well as fetuses of konketsu blood.
Russia invades Estonia, citing popular movement to join with Russian state and refusal of local governance to hold referendum.
2038-
Natural gas peak, Russia
Oil sands peak, Canada, Russia, American Venezuela
The Los Zetas Cartel, after unifying much of north-western Mexico, invades America, destroying the Colorado River dams and much of the irrigation infrastructure, releasing its flow. The Californian army releases weaponized anthrax against the invading army, forcing it back, and kills millions across north Mexico.
Southern USA states and Venezuela secede to form the “Confederated States of America”.
Massive oil reserves identified in Kashmir. Indian-Pakistani war ensues.
India launches nuclear attacks upon Pakistan and vice-versa. Several major cities are vaporized.
Pakistan reduced to feuding, desperate tribes.
Estonia joins Russia.
Georgian government, generally thought to be a puppet of Russian interests, hold referendum generally thought to be fraudulent and join Russia.
China and America sign a peace agreement- America withdraws from Philippines. China begins developing Pilipino off-shore oil resources.
2039-
Deindustrialization worldwide, except Russia and Canada
Russia, Canada engage in a series of limited skirmishes, agree to division of North Polar regions. Russia signs disadvantageous peace with Ummat Al-Mu’minin, ceding the uranium mines and territories of central Asia.
USA declares war on ‘Confederated States of America’, refusing to acknowledge their secession.
China invades Kashmir fighting a conventional war with remaining Indian forces. India launches nuclear weapon strikes at China and while many abort due to Chinese cyber-attacks, others succeed and many major Chinese urban and military centers are vaporized. Return fire by Chinese nuclear weapons upon India are much more extensive. Kashmir oil wells burn unrestrained for months.
China splinters with many warlords rising from the vestiges of the Chinese army.
India splinters with remaining populations dividing along militant religious divisions
Manchuria engages in a series of borders skirmishes with Korea, and though resulting in no territorial or resources exchanges, the battles serve to greatly unify Korea which adopts the name of the ‘Korean Union’.
Dalai Llama returns to Tibet, Tibetan independent theocracy re-established.
2040-
Amish state calling itself ‘Heartland Union’ secedes from the now much-limited USA.
Kashmiri warlords seize power in irradiated Kashmir and succeed in controlling oil for 2 months.
Kashmir invaded by corporate mercenaries from ‘Blue Suns’ multinational with offices in China, India, Korea and Brazil.
Maghreb Union invades Iberia.
FARC seizes control of Colombian central power, institutes communist rule.
Russia launches failed invasion of Armenia.
In the absence of central Chinese authority, the Hui nation of Huizi, a unique mix of both a Sufi-theocracy and a socialist state based on the Kuomintang, is founded from the relatively unirradiated Chinese provinces of Xingjian, Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxia.
Bangladesh, itself suffering from nuclear fallout and radiation peacefully annexes the heavily irradiated and leaderless Indian provinces of the Brahmaputra basin, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar
2041-
A series of extreme earthquakes strike southern Australia.
Parts of Canada, under food pressures, attempt to secede to join the ‘Heartland Union’. Canada imposes martial law. War of the “Great Lakes” ends with an uneasy treaty between energy-rich Canada and food-rich Heartland Union and the territorial expansion of the ‘Heartland Union’.
Blue Suns uses oil energy from Kashmir to repair part of the Three Gorges dam and establish totalitarian control over Hubei province and many surrounding areas.
Southeastern mainland Asian nations of Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam unite, under threat of chaotic Chinese and Indian warlords, forming the ASEAN United Six (AU6)
Iberian Union disbands parliament and adopts a military dictatorship as an ‘executive emergency measure’.
Azerbaijan joins Ummat Al-Mu’minin in face of Russian expansion.
2042-
Uranium depleted, world
Confederated States of America and the United States of America sign a white peace. Confederated States of America re-institute slave labor to address energy concerns.
Collapse of central Mexican authority. The devolution of central governments in much of central America has already passed or follows shortly.
Japan completes organized deindustrialization program relatively peacefully.
Nepal unites with Tibet in wake of the latter’s relative stability and the chaos of post-nuclear India.
2043-
Canadian Atlantic states and parts of New England officially recognize the de facto truth. Their respective federal governments have abandoned their relatively resource poor regions to focus on their own issues and in turn unite forming the ‘Atlantic Republic’. Heartland Union immediately offers food aid to this nascent nation.
Maghreb Union signs peace agreement with Iberian government, seizing much of southern Iberia and its solar fields. The Iberian union, without the infrastructure or public will to reinstate elections and democracy remains a military dictatorship.
Further economic and industrial failures in northern Brazil, especially along the rapidly failing Amazonian river, as well as a growing movement to secede to Amazonia, leads to de facto abandonment by Brazil and the northern Brazilian provinces seceding to join the Amazonian state.
2044-
Alaska holds referendum and joins Canada.
Khalistan, the Punjabi Suba, a Sikh state in what was once northern India (Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh) forms. Though heavily irradiated and suffering from frequent drought, the state manages to survive.
Communist Columbia provides assistance to diverse and divided Caribbean leaders to adopt communal social models and a ‘Caribbean State’ identity so as to better protect themselves from expected (though never realized) slave raids by the Confederate States of America.
Yi warlord unites southern Chinese provinces of Yunan, Guizhou, and Guangxi as a petty military dictatorship and names it Liangshan Yi.
Odia warlord unites devastated population of nuclear-ravaged Orissa, forming the new nation of Odisha.
2045-
Emigration from Britain in the face of climate-change induced cooling accelerates sharply as anyone with the means to escape does so.
Egypt, increasingly wary of the growing influence of the Ummat Al-Mu’minin nation appeals to the Maghreb Union and receives technical assistance in installing a modern solar infrastructure to aid its overwhelmed hydroelectric facilities.
Khoisan military coup topples remaining South African government.
2046-
Vatican city, much reduced and economically untenable in its incarnation amidst a growingly empty Rome relocates northwards to the edges of the northern Italian ‘irradiated lands’ and establishes a new headquarters at the Monte Cantagrillo.
Russia launches failed invasion of Armenia.
Blue Suns corporation withdraws from Kashmir in the face of growing domestic resistance and dwindling oil supplies.
Confederate States of America invades former Guyana (now disparate and divided villages without central government) essentially, though never admittedly, to secure slave populations.
Han warlord unites some of the most irradiated and damages portion of once-china, Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, parts of Guangxi as the ‘New Qin Empire’.
2048-
British parliament ceases infrastructure maintenance and tax collection of all but London and its surrounding areas. Britain effectively descends into benign anarchy and splintered independent counties.
In a series of economic and political failures each with a domino effect upon the other, the nations of Ukraine (those regions not annexed by Russia), Belarus, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia and finally Poland begin to fail, decentralizing and falling into anarchy.
Amazonia, with assistance from Communist Colombia, provides military assistance and leadership to former Guyana to defend against CSA invasion.
Bingzhou founded as a military dictatorship in the north central region of what was once China.
Kashmir warlords and along with post-nuclear Pakistani and Afghanistan tribes invited to the Ummat Al-Mu’minin and despite some protests from various minor tribes, the annexation is mostly peaceful.
South African military annexes Namibia and Botswana.
2049-
A military coup in the faltering Atlantic Republic abolishes democracy and establishes a military junta, though the name remains.
Mongolia adopts monarchy and the name of ‘Mongolian Khanate’, signs extensive bilaterial cooperative agreements with Manchuria.
Georgian resistance movement suppressed by Russia when its leaders are assassinated and its headquarters bombed.
From the ruins of Beijing arises warlords who unite the irradiated provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi and names their territory Yānzhào.
Sri Lanka, itself suffering from nuclear fallout, deindustrialization, rising sea levels and famine, but under pressure from their large Tamil minority peacefully annexes southern India (Kerala and especially Tamil Nabi) bringing much required medicines and relief. Many Indian Tamils flee to Sri Lanka.
(Stalinist)
