I'm did some rather rough calculations on the GLib pre-build and our tech path.
I can't post for a little while here, but I'll edit my thoughts back into this post later on...
EDIT:
Here are my calcs -->
My Caveat:
In order to do this, I made some pretty big assumptions. It's quite a task to forecast a civ's research capacity over a long period of time with dynamic elements of pop, tiles improvements, lux slider settings, + or - gpt options, etc. Throw in estimating a
city's shield capacity with its own changing levels of pop, tile improvements, not to mention corruption, and I realized how tough this could be to be precise!
So, this is pretty rough.
Basically, this is a "worst-case" analysis and many things could be sped up based on how we want to play it.
Goals: These calcs will hopefully lend guidance to whether:
-We build the temple in Greebley or start the Palace pre-build ASAP
-We plunge straight for Lit or can dally a little along the way
Assumptions:
-We'll run science at max (currently 70%) but
without going into -gpt situations
-Our actual number of beaker per turn using a 70% science rate will stay at same current level (big assumption but worst case, remember
)
-Joining workers to Greebley River will
not happen until it gets to size 5
-Letting Greebley River work Rat Falls BGs will
not happen
-Greebley River's corruption % will not change
-Greebley River will change temple build to palace, giving it +60 shields toward the GLib
-Raising the science slider throught hooking up more luxes was
not included
Research Path/Capacity:
Currently we can run 70% science without going into -gpt. That translates out to a beaker per turn rate of between
~13-14. (Rounding issues)
Based on that Rate, We can Research:
-Iron Working in 12 turns
-Writing in 19 turns
-Math in 19 turns
-Literature in 21 turns
Total : 12 + 19 + 19 + 21 =
71 turns
Now, it's
very likely that China and England will research at least Writing and possibly Maths ahead of us, driving down the beaker costs of those techs. Also, more contacts
will also drive down costs.
Greebley River:
Currently at pop 3 making a measly 2 shields per turn (1 lost to corruption)
Corruption is at 17% level.
Greebley River will max out at 10 shields pre-corruption (2 forests, 3 mined grass, 1 mined BG, city square). This should translate out to
8 shields per turn post-corruption.
Changing the temple build to palace means we have
340 shields left to make (400 GLib - 60 temple).
Ok, Greebley River will not be at pop 6 or 8 shield per turn capacity any time soon. It needs 3 grass mines to be built (1 is started) and needs to gain 3 pop points. Those 3 mines will take ~20 turns for
one worker to make.
During those 20 turns, it should grow to size 5, at which I'm assuming we'll add in a worker. Therefore, for the first 20 turns I estimate it can make an
average of 5 shields per turn (optimistically).
After 20 turns:
Greebley River will have made an additionally 100 shields, leaving us 240 shields more for the GLib.
At this point, we add in a worker and MM the tiles worked to get the 8 shields per turn (and the city will make 0fpt surplus).
According to our worst-case research, we have ~51 turns before Lit completes. 260 shields / 8 shields per turn = ~33 turns.
We hit the 400 shields in 33 turns, leaving us 19 turns short of Lit.
Conclusions:
I think these numbers are rather deceiving i.e. worst case scenario.
I strongly expect the tech cost to be significantly lower. Also, our overall research capacity will almost certainly improve, especially once we hook up the luxes.
Of course, we don't have to switch the temple pre-build at all. That would force us to build 60 more shields for the pre-build, but lower the risk of us not getting Lit in time.
However, even though the "calcs" didn't say so, I think we can reasonably risk doing the following:
-Switching the temple in Greebley R. to a palace. We don't have to--and the temple has it's uses--but I really think the risk is low of us not getting Lit in time.
-Research all of the mentioned techs, starting with Iron Working first. Doing IW first will give more time for those other techs to lower in cost.
Alternatively, we can either build the temple and/or cut out Maths or IW from our research path. Certainly cutting out the techs is
not my preference.
Comments, Ideas, Modifications? Again, this was very rough, so I could be way off somewhere with my math.
Perhaps the great number of assumptions means this simply confuses the options further...
A comment made earlier by either Greebley or ThERat (I forget which) leads me to believe that we may be wiser to go ahead and finish the temple. That will provide some happiness in Greebley Falls while they build our Glorious Great Library and may keep us from having to adjust the slider to accomodate that one city.
The spot its in is rather poor and will remain so until we get map making.
I'm going to play around with a save, probably from Aabraxan's set, and see what gives.
No, I had not noticed. That makes things much more interesting.
