RNES10: Board NES Simplicity

[Erik Mesoy]

Erez is a deal-breaker. Backstab him, everyone. He even double-checked the agreement after we made it.
(He would take Sloucester and Alcester, I would get Durham and Silchester)

*sends orders*



EDIT: Erez had this to say for himself:
lol
I'm not worried

perhaps it was in a deal with them?

Will the mysterious "them" that Erez made a deal with please stand up so I can congratulate them on good planning and getting someone else to do dirty work for them?

 

[ThomAnder]

Probably Emu since he attacked you

 

[erez87]

probably ... Yeah I only double dealed with you, as everyone else can see
and ocouse I double checked, had to be sure I could do it...

 

[Oruc]

Yes it was emu, I was informed you wanted to take me out first and even if it wasn't true I had to put myself in a better position to deflect it, while attempting to get help from someone you may not suspect.

 

[tossi]

Orders sent.

 

[RoddyVR]

still need orders From Disenfrancised and ThomAnder.

 

[ThomAnder]

mmm orders sent..

 

[RoddyVR]

doing update now.. still need Disenfrancised's orders, but i'll get the rest of the update done so it'll only take a minute after i get his orders...
this is almost funny as far as how some of your attacks clash. great game...

 

[ThomAnder]

this is almost funny as far as how some of your attacks clash. great game...

>_________<

 

[Oruc]

Did Thomander attack me? because I suspected he would.

 

[RoddyVR]

sorry, no peeking.

 

[Lord_Iggy]

Tres interessant.

I'm looking forward to seeing what happens here.

 

[Erik Mesoy]

Isn't this the point where Roddy does orders for Disenfrancised?

 

[RoddyVR]

yes it is. helped a friend move yesterday... left at 7:30 am... moved 3 tonnes of cinderblocks (plus other stuff, but its minor compared to the blocks) and got home around 11:20 pm. too tired to do anything that required mental capacity.

give me an hour or so to wake up and i'll do the update.

 

[RoddyVR]

Update 4

Battles:
Albany was left defenceless and easily conquered.
Essex's 3 armies successfully defended a 2 army attack, though they did lose one of their own.
Newton and Cambridge attacked eachother, ThomAnder's 3 armies were destoryed by Tossi's 5 on the border, and the 3 survivors of Tossi's army continued on to...
Cambridge which was defencless. The reinforcement army from Towchester had already arrived and was establishing control of the area.
Newton's defenders, after seeing of the 5 attacking armies let down their guard, and were suprised by a two pronged attack both from the south (Albany) and the northeast(norfolk). Their training came through however adn they were able to inflict some damage before being killed to the last man (killed one army).
on the other side of the Isle, the county of wales experienced real warfare for the first time, as Cardigan was attacked thought the mountains from Wroxetar. The two invaders were quickly destroyed by the defenders, though some casualties were suffered (1 army lost)

this turn made me realize how much i love myself for making the forest/mountain roads be usable. that criscros thing between yellow and blue was just FUN to figure out (who gets where when type stuff). had to change how i keep track of which army came from where during the update to make it work... new system should handle everything fine.

Gold:
Emu 14 gold (3 banked+21 income-10upkeep)
Tossi 12 gold (3 banked+18 income-9 upkeep)
Warman 18 gold (7 banked+24 income-13 upkeep)
Erez 18 gold (5 banked+24 income-11 upkeep)
Erik Mesoy 10 gold (3 banked+18 income-11 upkeep)
Disenfrancised 7 gold (3 banked+12 income-8 upkeep)
ThomAnder 9 gold (2 banked+15 income-8 upkeep)

now that the army counts are building up, some of you wont have enough gold to build an army in each of your territories.

 

[Erik Mesoy]

Hm. Death to erez. And then perhaps to emu.
Avalon can be attacked with a max of 5 armies this turn. Salisbury by 5+2. I can fortify Avalon to 6 and Salisbury to 8.

Roddy, how does the "fight-on-border" rule work if I attack from two areas at once?

EDIT: Oh, and for the sake of it, I did some calculations on what the odds are in small fights... 1v1 has 33% chance of win, loss or draw. 2v1 is 11/12ths victory, 1/24 loss and 1/24 draw. 2v2 is suddenly more complicated by an order of magnitude. It works out to:

173/384 win
173/384 loss
62/384 draw (both dead)
24/384 both sides miss

And that 24 should be evenly distributed among the others, so we get
Win: (173 + (24*173/(173+173+62))) / 384 = 47,7022 percent
Loss: Same, 47,7022 percent
Draw: 4,5956 percent

I won't even get started on 3v2 or (horror!) 3v3 until I have a huge formula for this.

 

[erez87]

I see at is 50-50, you either won or lost

Well I'm doomed might as well have fun in it

 

[RoddyVR]

the border fights only happen between two forces who are send directly at eachother across the same border. so if durham attacked avalon, and at same time you attackd durham from both avalon and salisbury, then the only border fight would be between the forces going from avalon to durham and the enemy going from durham to avalon. the salisbury forces would reach durham and fight whatever armies didnt leave it (as would any surviving attacking forces from avalon if they win the border fight)

also, i suspect your math is wrong. i think your numbers are going too high, either you're adding an extra power somewhere or just an extra multiplier. just seems like you have too many possibilities (that 384 number is too high i think).
1 vs 1, i agree its 1/3 chance for win, lose or draw (both dying)
2 vs 1, there's only 8 possilbe rolls:
0,0,0 gets another round, nothing changed
0,0,1 goes to a 1 vs 1
0,1,0 is a win for the 2
0,1,1 is a win with a causualty
1,0,0 is a win for the 2
1,0,1 is a win with a causualty
1,1,0 is a win for the 2
1,1,1 is a win with a casualty

so 3/8 is a win for the 2, another 3/8 is a win but lost one army, on more 1/8 is a 1vs1 which is 1/3 chance, and the last one is gotta be redistributed amongs these again.
you're right, quite a few actual posibilities here.
but the end results you have you didnt think through. i get:
42% for the 2 winning without losing a unit
47% for the 2 winning but losing one of his 2 armies
4.7% for a draw (all 3 armies killed)
4.7% for the 1 army winning agains the 2.

hmmm.... oops, ignore me, i didnt realize the calculations taking up most of the room in your post were for 2vs2.

 

[Erik Mesoy]

hmmm.... oops, ignore me, i didnt realize the calculations taking up most of the room in your post were for 2vs2.

/me pulls out a more powerful calculator

I'm only going to calculate win/lose, not casualties here. Something went wrong in the last post, it seems.

A1 v B1:
25% A
25% B
25% draw
25% whiff (cascade to self)
The total becomes an infinite sum which we see is 33% - 33% - 33%

A2 v B1
3/4 A (6/8)
1/8 cascade A1-B1
1/8 whiff
Redistribute the last 1/8 (=7/56) fairly among 6 and 1 eights: A has a 6/7 chance of winning, and the chance of a cascade to A1-B1 is now 1/7. From there, add another 1/21 chance of A winning, a 1/21 chance of B winning and a 1/21 chance of a draw.
A wins in 19/21 cases. (That's what you get for wildly outnumbering the enemy! )
B in 1/21
Draw in 1/21 (there's your 4.7%, Roddy, actually 4.762)


A2 v B2
1/16 draw
3/16 A
3/16 B
4/16 cascade A1-B1
3/16 cascade A2-B1
3/16 cascade A1-B2
1/16 whiff
Preliminary chance of A winning: 3/16 + (4/16 * 1/3) + (3/16 * 19/21) + (3/16 * 1/21) = 151/336.
Prelim. chance of B winning: Obviously, also 151/336.
Prelim. chance of a draw: 1/16 + (4/16*1/3) + (2* 3/16 * 1/21) = 55/336

This adds up to 357/336 and I haven't even redistributed the 1/16 whiff chance! GAAH! Can someone help me find the mistake?

...I'll just go and send orders now...

 

[erez87]

I must quote what jason said ones
"So this is why we learn math "