I've only read the first half of the PD thread so I don't know how they got their SoDs from Toku through Hatty and Genghis, but I'm assuming they used OBs, at least partly. (If not, they surely should have, based on where they were when I stopped reading.) So the cleverness of their strategy boiled down to
1. scouting ahead with spies to locate Lizzie
2. Using the AP and other tricks to get OBs after breaking through Toku
3. Moving SoDs rapidly forward to capture the AP.
Based on the map, the primary (very minor) luck involved was:
1. Lizzie being closer to their initial warpath through Toku
Blame Neil or the RNG, he should predict our intention and let Hammy DOW us.
2. Building their HE closer to Lizzie
The HE site was determined at the time when the eastern Gold site was discovered, we sacrificed the short term advantage for this future HE city. 5 tiles closer eastern-bound means very little to our war schedule.
3. Meeting Lizzie long before OSS did, thus knowing she was on the same landmass.
If you consider 4 turns to be long time, then yes.
OSS was ahead of the PD on T100 and in position to win, had we had the above strategy, but we didn't. End of story. The best strategy usually wins.
In fact, you were behind us on T100 and in no position to apply the above strategy in a good way.
We had 3 forges + TGL + NE + HE on T100, we decided on prioritizing economy to war from the beginning. Only our HE city was pumping military units in the beginning while all other cities were busy on infrastructures, missionaries and spies. With healthy economy and the earliest and convenient GP farm, we were able to afford the costly spy missions and able to bulb Optics on T123 to see the map layout.
We sacrificed our right of twisting techs from Toku just to avoid the -1 diplomatic hit so that we could bribe Hatty into war with us. While you aggressively DOWed those warheads without any consideration of making any friend.
Of course, from the Kakus' point of view, PD was lucky that the AP didn't get built overseas. That would have guaranteed victory for the Kakus.
Well, what if there's no easy site to gift Liz and Mansa, (Neil admitted that he did Edit: NOT intent for such result http://forums.civfanatics.com/showpost.php?p=11483043&postcount=947) or the evilest but very bad design -- 1 AI is totally sealed by mountains? One could find numerous ways of assumptions to kick a game into a trash bin. The fact is that our team have always tried to keep our strategy flexible and tried to adapt to the new information gained in the progress.