I will keep editing in comments as I see them.
1. I see now why the Warrior is coming back sooner... that's because we're delaying when we get our Great Scientist. The tradeoff is "get the Great Scientist slower so that we can be at Size 5 when generating our Great Scientist." Let's compare the approaches.
What we end up doing is being 15 turns away from a Great Scientist on T69, instead of being 10 turns away from a Great Scientist on T69.
In favour of rushing the Great Scientist:At roughly 22 Commerce per turn, with Bureaucracy, that's a missing 33 * 0.50 = 16.5 Flasks per turn. Let's assume that we're smart about it and would save up Gold prior to getting the Great Scientist so that we'd be at a 100% Science Rate for those turns, giving us 5 * 16.5 = 82.5 Flasks.
In favour of delaying the Great Scientist:
Over time, we seem to have about an average of a 70% Science Rate.
From T61 to the arrival of the Great Scientist on T84, that's 84 - 61 = 23 turns. But, when we generate the Great Scientist in the other scenario on T79, we can work the Gems Mine in that scenario, so the timing is more like 79 - 61 = 18 turns.
But, let's split it up further...
From T67, we are at Size 5. Assume from that turn onward we get +1 F and +1 C per turn... even if Gems City is working the Wheat, then Cap needs to work a Farm instead of the Wheat, so we just earn the bonus from working an extra G Riv Farm.
So, that's 6 turns of earning 7 - 1 = +6 Commerce's bonus Flasks from the Library (as, otherwise, City 4 works the Gems Mine).
That's also 12 turns of earning +1 Commerce, +7 Commerce's bonus Flasks from the Library, and +1 Food.
Putting that all together:
6 turns * 6 * 0.25 * 0.70 + 12 * 1 + 12 * 7 * 0.25 * 0.70
= 6 * 1.5 * 0.70 + 12 + 12 * 1.75 * 0.70
= 6.3 + 12 + 14.7
= 33 Flasks
12 * 1 F = 12 Food
So, overall, getting that Great Scientist sooner gets us:
82.5 - 33 = +49 Flasks
- 12 Food
The main question that then remains is: can we still get Code of Laws by T69 if we go for the faster Great Scientist?
2. Spawn-busting, Fog-busting, and Defence
We're a bit dependent upon what Shaka's Scout does. If his Scout stays on the peninsula, then we really shouldn't need a unit over there.
Also, for any turns where we have a Worker Chopping the Forests to the NE and NE + N of City 4, we'll be doing pretty decent spawn-busting of that area.
Depending upon when we load a Worker into our Galley, our Galley could also help with spawn-busting the peninsula for a turn or two here and there.
Then there's also the Barb Cities factor to consider. In our test game, a Barb City self-founded a long time ago, until I deleted it as part of updating the terrain. Barb Cities can appear anywhere where we haven't fog-busted (different from spawn-busting), i.e. Barb Cities can appear anywhere that isn't in the line of sight of a non-Barb player's units or Culture.
Barb Cities like to self-found in areas with high net Food, so Grassland-heavy areas or areas with a Food Resource are generally high targets. Having a cluster of 2 or more Resources also makes for a good target.
So, I'm not really worried about the possibility of a Barb City spawning near the Sheep, as that area looks to be pretty Food-poor and only has 1 Resource there.
The Horse area looks to have a lot of Tundra, so I'm also less concerned about that area.
Anywhere that's heavy with Grassland squares, though, becomes an immediate target.
In terms of where a Barb City could mess us up, on the Sheep peninsula wouldn't be so bad, as we'd still keep our Foreign Trade Routes and we know that there isn't another island in that area, as we explored that area thoroughly, so a Barb City spawning there would be "out of the way."
A Barb City spawning by the Corn would cut off our Trade Routes, which would definitely mess up our Commerce in a big way.
A Barb City spawning to the west of City 3 might give us a buffer between us and Shaka. If it spawned near the Horse, we'd probably regret it, while if it spawned closer to Willem, seeing as how it can't spawn adjacent to his Cultural Borders, I can't see how such a City would be able to cut off Foreign Trade Routes until its Cultural Borders expanded, and Barb Cities' Cultural Borders rarely expand.
Then there's defence to consider.
Warrior 2 could feasibly come back to cover for the departing Warrior 1, which would free up the Scout to go eastward. However, doing so leaves the area directly west of City 3 open to spawn-busting.
Similarly, if Warrior 3 came back to cover for Warrior 1, the area to the north-west of City 3 could spawn Barb units, although if a Barb City appeared in the Grasslands there, we'd possibly be okay with that location, compared to a Barb City appearing near the Corn.
Included in the equation is the fact that we lose 10 Hammers on our GH Riv For Chop for the square that is 1W of the G Riv Gems Mine. In exchange, we have Worker 3 spawn-busting the east more by nature of spending more time Chopping the P Riv Forests at NE and NE + N of City 4. So, if we were to send the Scout westward, then those 10 Hammers would be worth the investment.
Or, we could think about it another way... if we instead earn those 10 Hammers, we can Chop out another Scout (or another Warrior) and have that unit spawn-bust the eastern peninsula. The cost, though, is 1 Commerce per turn, due to Unit Costs, which we can't really afford.
So, if we stick with the PPP's Worker plan, Worker 3 helps with spawn-busting a good part of the eastern peninsula until the end of T65, which we could use as a fact to justify sending the Scout toward the west.
Or, we switch to the Worker plan for Worker 3 that is listed in
message #361, then we can afford to build an extra Scout or Warrior if we follow the PPP's approach for Gems City (except for 2 turns where City 4 will need to work the Gems Mine or 1 turn of work a GH For) to earn enough Hammers to finish off the Oracle. But, then doing so delays our Great Scientist and puts us further behind on Flasks in the medium term (see point 1 above).
Or, we might just barely have enough Commerce to do it all... get our extra spawn-buster, get our Great Scientist faster by not growing Gems City to Size 5, and getting the extra +10 Hammers from our Forest Chop. We'll have to test to see how tight the Commerce is to see if it can allow for such a possibility.
Another thought is that looking at the uploaded T69 saved game, we are FAR away from getting a Granary in City 4. That fact hurts. Part of the reason is due to working a G Riv Farm instead of the Gems Mine, and part of the fact is from missing the 10 Hammers from 1 Chop. It would be really nice to be close to being able to 1-pop-whip that Granary, so that City 4 doesn't suffer considerably... having to 2-pop-whip the Granary is going to be a major sacrifice.
So, perhaps we can build the extra Scout out of City 3 prior to building the Archer. Doing so gives us a Scout to send to the peninsula (the Scout can get there reasonably quickly), allowing us to keep up good spawn-busting and fog-busting in the west, allowing us to keep those 10 Hammers and putting them toward City 4's Granary, and having City 4 work the Gems Mine more often so as to put more raw Hammers toward making that Granary 1-pop-whippable.
Certainly, whenever we're at a 0% Science Rate, City 4 can be working the Gems Mine, although probably more frequently than that is going to be the answer, as delaying our Great Scientist is costly in the medium term.
That said, if we absolutely need the Flasks to make it all work in the short term, then we'll have no choice but to accept the medium term net loss in Flasks.
Of course, we want to get our Archer 1 out soon, so that probably puts us back to the need to get our spawn-buster out of City 4.
Thus, a combination like the following may work:
1. Worker plan for Workers 1 and 2 as listed in
message #359
2. Worker plan for Worker 3 as listed in
message #361
3. Gems City approach of growing to Size 5, similar to the PPP, but with City 4 stealing the Gems Mine whenever we're at a 0% Science Rate
4. When the first Chop in City 4 arrives, we will switch to building a Scout; this turn should be a turn at 100% Science (so that we aren't stealing the Gems Mine) and thus we will only convert 1 Hammer -> 1 Gold due to making 31 / 15 Hammers in a Scout
5. When City 4 gets to Size 2, we will work a GH For instead of the unimproved Corn, since Hammers up to 30 Hammers prior to getting the Granary will beat working a 3-Food square
6. Plan to put the northern Fish City location's Chop into City 4 soon after Chopping the Oracle for an extra 16 Hammers, getting us closer to being able to 1-pop-whip that Granary... i.e. no point in rushing to Farm the G Corn if we're stuck having to 2-pop-whip the Granary... we'd lose out relative to 1-pop-whipping the Granary and delaying the G Corn Farm by a bit; yes, I recognise that the PPP's Worker plan puts 2 Workers near the G Corn, but without us being anywhere near getting that Granary (3 Hammers would overflow from the Oracle for a total of 5 Hammers into the Granary), then Farming that G Corn ASAP would actually hurt us relative to a method of getting that Granary out as a 1-pop-whipping action
3. City 4's Location
Since we have a Road going toward City 4, in terms of still being able to get immediate Trade Routes, work the Gems Mine, the Corn, and get 5 Forest Chops, we have the option of settling 1W.
Doing so gives us less fog-busting before our Cultural Borders expand, but gives us a ton of extra fog-busting after our Cultural Borders expand, particularly in the west, as the Peaks then come within our Cultural Borders.
We'd need to work out Worker actions that still worked and we'd need a different spawn-busting + fog-busting plan for our units, but as long as the Worker turns worked out, then settling 1W off of the River is an option.
Doing so forces us into the fast-Great-Scientist approach, as we wouldn't share the G Riv Farm square with Gems City, but then we also buy ourselves 1 more turn of not needing to move Warrior 1.
It's a possibility worth considering if we can figure out a way to make the Worker actions work out.
If we settled 1W of where we had planned we would:
1. Need a new Worker plan... although I think that we could pretty much use Worker 3's message #161 approach, Worker 2's message #159 approach, and Worker 1 would get his last Chop done a bit early and would be adjacent to the G Corn, so he could put 2 extra turns into Farming the G Corn relative to following the message #159 approach for Worker 1. We'd also get our +10 Hammers from one Chop this way and would be pretty close to being able to 1-pop-whip the Granary as we'd be forced into the approach of having City 4 work the Gems Mine
2. Gems City would follow the fast-Great-Scientist approach and thus wouldn't grow to Size 5, earning us a lot more Flasks in the medium term, a much smaller amount of less Food, and it could probably work without the extra Flasks from Gem City's Library in the short term as we wouldn't need to build a 1-Commerce-per-turn-costing additional spawn-buster
3. Without building a Scout, we'd save on Commerce and thus Code of Laws should hopefully still be doable as long as we maintain our Trade Routes
4. The extra Hammers from working the Gems Mine in City 4 and the extra +10 Hammers from a Forest Chop would put us pretty close to being able to 1-pop-whip the Granary at the ideal time, if not exactly at the ideal time, without having to invest Worker turns immediately on Chopping Fish City's Forest or working a GH For square or any other such tricks
5. Be able to push out our western spawn-busters further westward at some point sooner than getting Archer 1
Doing so might be the best way to ensure that we get good spawn-busting, good fog-busting, get a good amount of Flasks in the medium term, get City 4 up and running with a Granary and a Farmed G Corn ASAP, and not need to recruit a costly +1 spawn-buster to make it all happen. So, I'm thinking that this approach is the one that we should target doing.
Here's a picture of the unit movements that we could perform, which allows for us to send the Scout to the east:
Ugh... moving City 4's location means needing a new Worker solution, since Worker 3 can no longer use City 4's auto-created Road to move southward.
Okay, the only way that I can see to make settling 1W work is to use the "lose 10 Hammers" approach. That fact sucks, but the improved fog-busting makes such a significant difference that it seems like a worthwhile trade off.
So:
Turn 58, 1680 BC
W1: partially Chop GH Riv For (SE + S of G Corn)
W2: Chop G For (SW + W of Cap)
W3: Move to GH For that is 1S of G Corn (1W of City 4's western location)
Turn 59, 1640 BC
W1: partially Chop GH Riv For and
STOP!! (SE + S of G Corn)
W2: Chop G For (SW + W of Cap)
W3: Chop GH For that is 1S of the G Corn
Turn 60, 1600 BC
W1: Move 1S GH Riv For Road (1W of G Riv Gems Mine) and complete Chop for 20 H
W2: Complete the Chop G For (SW + W of Cap)
W3: Chop GH For that is 1S of the G Corn
Turn 61, 1560 BC
W1: Move into Gems City and load into the Galley
W2: Move 1N G For (2W of Cap)
W3: Complete the Chop GH For that is 1S of the G Corn
Turn 62, 1520 BC
W1: Unload on eastern G For (1E of Fur)
W2: Complete the Chop G For (2W of Cap)
W3: Move 1NW GH For (1W of the G Corn)
Turn 63, 1480 BC
W1: Chop the G For (1E of the Fur)
W2: Move 1N G For (NW + W of Cap)
W3: Chop GH For (1W of the G Corn)
Turn 64, 1440 BC
W1: Chop the G For (1E of the Fur)
W2: Complete the Chop G For (NW + W of Cap)
W3: Chop GH For (1W of the G Corn)
Turn 65, 1400 BC
W1: Complete the Chop the G For (1E of the Fur)
W2: Move to G Road that is 1E of City 3, partial Farm, and
STOP
W3: Complete the Chop GH For (1W of the G Corn)
Turn 66, 1360 BC
W1: Move 1W to Fur
W2: Move to the GH Riv For that is SE + S of the G Corn (1E of the G Riv Gems Mine)
W3: Move 2E (1E of the G Corn)
Turn 67, 1320 BC
W1: Camp the Fur
W2: Complete the Chop GH Riv For that is SE + S of the G corn
W3: Move 2E to the P Riv For (3E of the G Corn)
T68, 1280 BC
W1: Camp the Fur
W2: Move 2NE to the P Riv For (3E of the G Corn)
W3: Chop P Riv For (3E of the G Corn)
T69, 1240 BC
W1: Camp the Fur
W2: Chop P Riv For (3E of the G Corn)
W3: Complete the Chop P Riv For (3E of the G Corn)
It's not the absolute best scenario in terms of our Worker actions, but it gets the Chops done in time, it leaves us in position to quickly get 13 H from sending a Worker to Chop the P Riv For that is 2S of Fish City's Fish Resource, and it gives us the best spawn-busting + fog-busting approach possible.
A compromise of settling 1W (i.e. 1SE of the G Corn) is slightly higher City Maintenance by about 0.23 at Size 1. All that we can do is play it out to see if Code of Laws can still be achieved by T70 (I'm trying to do so right now).
It seems that the micro in the PPP in
message #368 grows the capital into Unhappiness and also delays TGLH by 1 turn. Please see
message #273 for ideas.
