Discussion in 'Mafia/NOTW' started by Timsup2nothin, Feb 17, 2020.
Please talk about your wolfreads and what makes you like Sommer's spot?
I will reread everything you said about wagonics because I didn't get the same feeling. Timing is important and a TAK/Csargo team couldn't get away with a Sommer lunch just by piling imo. That's the kind of obvious move which would be spotted before EOD and get them both tied for the lunch. I for one was under the impression that CSargo/Tak/Sommer was w/w/t so I am gonna reread your argument to see if I can get what you are saying. or if you are derailing.
Why are you assuming everyone assumes Sommer is a wolf? You have been implying this since D2 start LA.
What about Zack wasn't all right, and some people are townie and trying to catch wolf with independent thinking?
I am just quoting this for the kicks in case you are lunched D2
@topsecret liked this post. Get a room you two!
As I said near EOD, I think almost everything in his D1 was OMGUS/noobish/villagery. Except the thing about Takhisis being important. I asked explanations about it but none came for now. The fact that he is frozen since then is worrying though. I will reread him too before EOD, that's for sure.
Now on to my wall post.
So suspicions on Takhisis/Arakhor/Yakostovian based on D1 rereading.
Spoiler Takhisis :
This post triggered my vote on Takhisis yesterday. I still find it awfull (looking scummy may be OK if there is some unrequested solving mixed in, but stating that's counter-indicative of alignment is lolesque)
Using Dolbster's post to justify his behavior. Forgetting to mention he randed scum two games ago and got away with it.
quoting for later reference. Potential Dolbster <> Takhisis connection here.
The bad looking read list. Felt made up, no strong opinions within. Reassess now we know Csargo was klingon.
OK, there are 66% chances of a klingon lynch, let's bus to make that 50%.
Meanwhile, let's push a Sommer's lunch:
if that fails, let's try something else:
Let's collect town cred, and quote that Arakhor's post with the "randomly" word in it. It might get into some heads.
Spoiler Arakhor :
Basically, it's Lord Argon or lurkers D1. slim as scum hunting.
Tunneling on LordArgon.
While not being in full disagreement with this, it lacks the obvious townie advice to a noob: try to catch wolfs first. Just do't stay iddle voting lurkers!
Back on Argon. He seems to only be sharp regarding our compulsive claimer.
Finally sharing a bit, but I really really dislike the first sentence of this post. "as you no doubt can expect", promoting self-made meta
Again promoting to go after lurkers, when there are tones of info in the game.
Yes he does
I disliked this EOD poppin. Implying that was random might be a way to minor earlier Csargo's connections.
Spoiler Yakostovian :
Yakostovian ( ) has some good posts imo... but it striked me how he has been backing Csargo and distancing from Tak (without scratching him) all day long... and pushing a sommer lunch (villager imo)
His 2nd post is a read list. With Csargo TRed. Tak is null.
but it is true OMGUS. Sticking to this line all day.
I am not ignoring that.
For the love of Jebus, I will never do that...
liking Csargo for town, don't think Tak is town, but not willing to vote him bad read/incoherence or lying/distancing? Since there is a pattern in this D1, I am inclined to think it's the latter.
never did. stayed on sommer until the end. Again, that might be some kind of distancing.
"hope to see Sommer stay in the lead" OK... followed by a flat description of what Csargo did (aimee style). Not reading him whatsoever, it feels like a Csargo's rehabilitation attempt. Also not mentioning the content of the readslist which I found very bad.
I haven't done a full reread of Dolbster but I will do it eventually. I disliked his early attempt against me because it was really him trying to space me one hour into the game when everyone was basically trolling around. Then there is the possible connection with Tak I mentioned in that spoiler above. I didn't get the same feeling than him about the wagonics but I am gonna reread that now to see if I can get the grasp of it.
Aimee is so fluffy that she could get away as a wolf with this being her first game. I will keep on watching her.
Winston is a must watch. I am really liking his posts so far but he has so much potential for power wolfing that I can't be relaxed with him. Kinda feeling the same about Snerk/Visor.
LA is getting worse as time goes.
The rest of the roster I am OK with for now (Synsensa is getting more active, but I find him constructive as Monty said).
Have you been tracking the votes as others said you might, RRRas?
Or am I going to have to type up my handwritten list?
@Winston: I will post a spreadsheet of D1 votes a bit later.
lol what a cross post, you are in mind Winston
I will request you do D2 though
I didn't post in this thread yesterday because yesterday was too stressful with it seeming like everyone was after me. When I glanced at the thread after it reopened it seemed like things were even worse than yesterday and even more people had made up their minds to kill me so I thought "Well I'm dead, that's that" I figured at that point that literally anything I said would be interpreted as grounds to kill me as folks had already made up their minds, so I wasn't really up for posting in the thread.
Anyway, I've read the whole thread at this point and I will say that it seems dumb to lynch anyone who voted for Csargo because Csargo is a confirmed Klingon. The only person who voted for Csargo who should not be off the hook... for at least a couple days... is me, because I only voted for Csargo to self-pres, obviously. Csargo's vote to lynch me doesn't exonerate me for the same reason, he was clearly self pres'ing. But clearly anyone besides me who was voting for Csargo is in the clear, because if they were mafia they would have switched to me to save their comrade, right?
Also, it seems dumb to lynch, any of the three people Csargo said we should lynch, (Tak, Montmercy and Synsensa) because Csargo is a confirmed wolf. I mean, its possible that he named one wolf in his "I would lynch" post just to throw folks off, but all three? No way, right? So those three people have got to be given a pass, again, at least for a couple days until more suspicious targets are explored.
So the people who seem like they should be assumed town and lynch-exempt at this point are Synsensa, Visor, Empoof, Takhisis, Manasi and Monty, because those are the people, who are still alive, excluding myself, who either voted for Csargo or were named by Csargo for a lynch (Tak and Sysensa were both). My final thought is that anyone who has been hard pushing anyone on that list (people who voted for Csargo or were targeted by Csargo) for a lynch has to be a prime suspect.
Also... what are "bus / bussing" and "PR"?
Can't promise to do d2, tho.
I'm back to work on Tuesday, plus I'm busy all Monday evening, so if I'm still around d3 then I'll need to move to a much more time-efficient approach.
And I am sloooooowww as hell when it comes to collecting and presenting stuff like vote data.
I missed this in my analysis... RRRask cast the deciding vote to space Csargo because there was a tie between me and Csargo. So RRRask should definitely be treated as town as well.
bussing is scum voting (or at least pushing with some vigor) on their own teammates
pr usually means power roles - characters who have some significant ability to affect the game through night actions or such
Let's play WIFOM! (Wine in front of me, search wiki.mafiascum.net if you forgot what it is )
^^ Not saying you are wrong, but that I am not sold on D1 wagonics. I will rather be following my reads for now.
The problem with the 'everyone who voted Csargo can be town' line is that Csargo was the default lynch yesterday. By the time the votes started to pile up, it was obvious Zack was de facto town leader (if even I'm not seriously doubting him, Zack is pretty much lock clear), and was not going to back off his Csargo push. At this point, Csargo's chances of surviving more than another day or two approached zero, making him a liability for the scum team and a very viable candidate for bussing, especially if there was another scum player in the running to be lynched (as well as you, both Tak and Empoof could fit here).
How dare you! Me forget what that is?!? That's INCONCEIVABLE!!!
As the person who tied with Csargo in the lynch voting and all the stress of that I will say I take issue with your casual characterization of Csargo as the "default". I was leading the vote for half the day so it didn't feel very "default" from my perspective. The only thing that saved me was literally a last minute vote by RRRas (thanks RRRas you wonderful, wonderful person ). "Default" my ass
I will also note that since you aren't on my list of folks who should get a pass, again at least for a couple days... your skepticism of the list is at least partially self-serving.
All of these assumptions only work if you're town. And some could corner themselves in voting their comrade or not being around to switch their votes. Tak for example made a really bad Csargo read, which was his first interaction with the hanged man. More so, Csargo lacked any presence in the thread at that point.
But, thanks for reminding me of that.
From your perspective, sure. But all wagons are not alike, and from my perspective yours was very much a counter-wagon to Csargo. There was a distinct shift in the game around the time Csargo picked up his first votes from me and Zack, and it was from here that you started becoming a serious candidate (prompted at least in part, I think, by Zack first disagreeing and then agreeing with me that you looked scummy). Why exactly that happened is key to understanding why yesterday played out as it did.
Simply giving a pass to everyone who voted Csargo is choosing not to even engage with what actually happened, in favour of just staring at the final vote count.
I think that wolves would prefer to avoid losing one of theirs d1 if possible. Even with Csargo outed, they could use him to kill the thread. Bussing d1 is unwise, because it's the easiest day to ignore town leaders and avoid pressure from making bad moves.
Btw, I quite like Rask rn. I think he's town, mostly for going in another direction and talking about Argon more. I don't think his Arakhor case is great, it actually shows that Arakhor's posting is closer to Franklin than I've noticed. His Yako retrospective is impressive. That guy looks bad, especially if Sommer's town. I know there were some well regarded posts from Yako and I like them too, so It's yet another player to see more from before deciding.
Jeebuses to Rask.
Tak wagon I find interesting. There's Arakhor, who is closer to my scumreads than to my town. Empoof, who is really difficult to get grasp of this game. He feels soft and comforting and this stresses me out. His moves are all good and pro town, tho. Synsea should be town based on Csargo's list.
Empoof has my top two towns and Monty, who I recently found towny enough, on his tail. These are some decent voters to sheep.
Sommer's wagon with Argon and Tak on it is an underdog.
Dolby and Jo on Arakhor feels pure, they both have good reasons for voting the guy. Rask adding the third vote is ok.
Ok, my two main theories would be:
1. An easy game. Wolves are mostly among low impact players and lurkers. None of them is really solving and they're all trying to stay under radar. This would mean some combination of Tak/Sommer/Yako/Manasi/Snerk/Arakhor/Aimee/Argon
2. Dobster and/or Empoof wolves and I find this to be more likely, actually. Basically one or of the two and a reduced poe from 1. For example Dolbster could only be with Tak/Yako/Snerk/Aimee/Argon. Empoof I have no idea atm. I don't think he made any independent pushes.
Things I don't want to think about:
3. Visor is wolf
4. Rask is wolf
5. Hughes is wolf
Syn, Monty, Johanna, Visor, Rask, Hughes and Dolbster are in my town.
Poof, Aimee, Arakhor, Argon, Snerk, Manasi, Yako have things going for and against them.
Takh, Sommer don't have much going for them. I think Sommer's looking better than Tak today.
Separate names with a comma.