Sullla's AI Survivor Season Eight - Game 7 Thread

TLDR:
I guess Sury is the favorite just from past success, and a decent start. Seems like a domination or space game, ending on the later side, with a lot of wars. Could be someone else, but early 1v1's usually are king-makers for whoever avoids the war, and could be a lot of 1v1's.

Unrelated:
I've noticed a trend where AI's tend to settle Wine + Food resources early, even if wine is in 2nd ring.

I'm looking to see if that hypothesis pans out.


General take:
Sury has decent land, and should have an okay start.
Monty + Mehmed + Charlie + Izzy is a mess of religious conflict waiting to happen.
Liz is interesting - she could squeak by in the corner, with mid-quality land, but she'll probably flame out and get overrun by a stronger leader in the renaissance era.



Per leader take:
Spoiler :

If it does, look for Sury to settle the Plains Cow / Wine near Isabella early, which will grab copper, squeeze Isabella, and likely result in border tension. Sury has expansive, and lots of grain health, so I don't think the FP will be an issue. Happy cap will be. He's got basically nothing but wine, but if he settles the wine, maybe he heads to monarchy reasonably fast. Backline stone, and wonder builder, look for pyramids from Sury, and so that might mitigate the health. Homie needs to get AH quickly, if he does, should be able to pump expansion, and with lots of river, not crash econ.

I'm thinking Charlie will do dumb stuff and start poorly, because his techs don't help him improve his capital at the start. If he gets left alone for a bit, he's an interesting candidate with all the commerce he has, but will he be too slow and have his game ruined by Monty?

Liz is a peaceful finance leader who doesn't have a river, but a big corner of land, and a fanatical warmonger that ISN'T next to her, which might mean she can build and spread like a dark horse.

Izzy is likely to just cause trouble and get into it with someone, like Charlie. If Izzy and Charlie get into a fight, I think Sury has the advantage in the game. Shame no seafood for Izzy. She has tiles to mine to start, so shouldn't have a terrible start. Fin + seafood isn't bad. I suspect Izzy goes 1S of green cow for Cow / corn city. Would be nice if she settle the PH SE of the cow, better D, and reach for horse. I think the Sheep / Silver site may be too close to the capital for her to settle, but she could settle on the iron.

Monty will ruin someone's game but lose. No copper, yes iron, probably Ivory, so the shenanigans won't start TOO early. Will it be Meh or Burger? Makes it kind of risky to pick one of his neighbors..... I suspect Monty goes for the wheat/cow/ivory area for city 2.

Meh has a decent start, will probably settle towards monty, should expand okay thanks to 2x corn and agri start, and workers won't be idle thanks to wheel, but he's kind of a historically dumb leader. Hard to expect him to do much except bash heads against someone most of the game.

 
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In my experience Charly needs some room to do well. With his central start he will do poorly, except if he conquers someone (Monty).

IMHO Liz' land is not too bad, there is a lot of tundra and plains, but there are also good food resources, and very diverse resources both for health and happiness. I also think she has a good chance to reach the jungle. She still has two main problems: Sury and whoever takes Monty will probably lead in score, so she has low chances to be second, and Sury will probably conquer someone and beat Liz to Space if they both go for it. Except if she conquers someone I do not see her having a top two finish.

Sury is the other one with good econ potential, however he will struggle with happiness. Long term he has a great position.

I do not think that Mehmed has what it takes. I think he has one main advantage over Charly, being further away from Sury. If Sury is strong he will probably limp into second by virtue of the others being worse.

1st - Sury
2nd - Mehmed
FTD - Monty
Wars - 13
Victory - Dom
Turn 310
 
1st - Sury
2nd - Liz
FTD - Burger King
Wars - 13
Victory - Dom
Turn 325

Izzy and Sury to be religious pals in the north while the south/middle becomes a bloodbath. This allows Sury to expand/develop freely while Izzy wages crazy wars against the heathens (especially Monty...). I picked Liz for 2nd, mainly coz I couldn't decide on who to pick and she's furthest away from Sury. I'm hoping all the religious warring takes place in the east and she is left alone to develop, but isn't ruthless enough to win.
BK gets squeezed by everyone, I can even see him being in a 3v1 war at some point, that's why I think he's FTD
 
I'm really not sold on Sury in this game (and in general, actually).

As I said, I believe that anything can happen in this game, so Sury should win a few (well-timed dogpile on Charlie, Izzy weaker than usual, ...).
But I think he'll generally be weak, fighting both his direct neighours, and ultimately paying the price.
I don't think he'll be FTD (Monty, Lizzy, and to some extent Charlie are better candidates), but I don't think he'll generally make it to the end game either.

So my take is that games where Sury are strong on this map will be outliers.
Now... considering that live games tend to be disproportionately outliers (weren't S6 S7 opening round 100% outliers ?), I suppose backing Sury could be a good move on some meta level. :lol:
 
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I think Suryavarman and Elizabeth at least have clear victory paths at ~30% each. Mehmed has the potential to blob and convert that into...space? I am more curious about Isabella. She seems likely to expand toward the center, but I am not convinced her start is strong enough to keep up with the militarists or clear the jungle. I consider Charlemagne and Montezuma to be largely outlier winners.

I have not seen this brought up, but these leaders tend toward later victory dates. Rapid domination or culture could be the exception.

Keler said:
And well, the current situation is
Click to expand...
How do you assign points?
 
A good meta reason to back Sury for this game is that he's the final member of Kjotleik's fantasy team. Every single other member has delivered this round, despite our doubts. If Sury does the same, we might have a runaway in fantasy.
 
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(soon)
 
Elizabeth/Suryavarman, Charlemagne, 13 wars, Cultural, T330. I settled strangely adjacent to urbestfriend. While not convinced that Elizabeth is favored by any means, it seems to be a plausible victory state with light coverage for other paths. And maybe I am caving to cultural pressure and the unusual success of high peace weight leaders...
 
Suryavarman and Charlemagne engage in high impact settling brinkmanship, denying each other core lands. Shocked that the latter went northwest.

Isabella settled in the right direction though misses out on copper.

Elizabeth looks to have settled toward Mehmed, not that I have seen much of her corner...

Montezuma settles with no strategic impact.

Mehmed crucially misses the rice by one tile but more importantly the copper!
 
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