[RD] Super Tuesday

[onejayhawk]

Turnout in MN was insane. There were over 1000 people packed into a local elementary school for the caucuses, I was told that was well over twice the previous record. Here's a picture of how packed and hectic it was getting in.

Which party?

Some pundits are arguing that a Trump nomination points toward a low Republican turnout. Primary voting shows otherwise. If either Trump or Sanders wins through, we are looking at a big turnout in November.

Yeah, I would definitely differentiate by which Latin American country they come from - I wouldn't expect Mexicans to like a Cuban candidate any more than they would like any non-Hispanic white guy. Still, it's pretty interesting that a state with mostly Mexican Hispanics would not see any large loss of support for Trump.

One thing to consider is that, in common with New Mexico but less so the rest of the US, many of Texas's Hispanics have had ancestors in the US for generations. They (especially their Republicans) probably have more in common with other white people than with descendants of recent immigrants, and probably see Trump from a more or less 'white' perspective.

You do need to inquire as to the length of time in the USA. Multi-generation Texas Hispanics tend to agree with Trump on immigration. They have no roots in Mexico and they do not like being lumped with undocumented immigrants.

J

 

[ls612]

Which party?

Some pundits are arguing that a Trump nomination points toward a low Republican turnout. Primary voting shows otherwise. If either Trump or Sanders wins through, we are looking at a big turnout in November.

J

Republican. My precinct went 25 Rubio, 17 Kasich, 10 Cruz, 3 Trump, 1 Carson.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Which is odd because she spent the first 27 years of her life living in Chicago and Massachusetts.

Which you know because you Googled it, whereas her life in Arkansas was on Television. And if you don't get why stuff that people see with their own eyes on TV trumps self-serving, last-minute, gotcha "research" then you are also mystified by the success of Trump. (pun intended)

And how old is Hillary again?

Honestly, I still haven't heard a convincing argument why minorities like African Americans and latinos in the south love Clinton so much. Best I could surmise is the "they're more conservative" thing and hence they prefer the more conservative or moderate candidate.

"convincing"? Nice... "argument"? nice The implication being, that black people need to provide reasons that sufficiently satisfy you as to why they vote the way they do... or else they're dumb... right? Well in any case I'll give you a the perspective of some black people, and you can decide whether it's "convincing" or not.

As I have said before, its simple. We don't know Bernie, not in the way we know Hillary. We have been watching Hillary square off against and take non-stop fire from our enemy the Republicans for two and a half decades. Bernie just appeared out of the woodwork last year.

As my cousin in Atlanta put it this weekend "Bernie Sanders? Please, shawty get dat outta here! We don't know you like that shawty! Hillary is folk' she been'round, you ain't been'round! You sat wit Mike? Please, I know Mike! He from right around here! You know what tho? He go to them campuses wit that Sanders stuff but he don't come around Southwest! He don't come to his own neighborhood talkin' that Sanders stuff... cause he know... ain't nobody trying ta hear that shawty!"

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Which party?

Some pundits are arguing that a Trump nomination points toward a low Republican turnout. Primary voting shows otherwise.

J

There is no logical connection between these two statements.

A hotly contested primary drives turnout for the primary. That says absolutely nothing about turnout in the general election.

Interesting point that I picked up somewhere...

The most recent "movement candidates" to gain the nomination were Goldwater and McGovern. This bodes ill for the Trumpist awakening should it make it to November.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Just guessing, since I don't presume to speak for them...


Bill Clinton as governor of Arkansas went toe to toe with the "we desegregated because we had to, but we can meet the letter of the law and still screw the blacks" educational system and rebuilt it from the ground up, over fierce opposition...and since no one else in Arkansas was interested in risking their political career siding with him the chair of his commission was Hillary Clinton. I'm guessing that southern blacks who experienced education at the time, who would now be in their thirties-forties remember that fight better than they remember MLK marches that happened before they were born.

"Okay, you marched with MLK, but Hillary Clinton stood with me" is an overpowering argument.

This I can believe. The popularity of Bill Clinton in the south and the loyalty towards what he and his family have done.

Which you know because you Googled it, whereas her life in Arkansas was on Television. And if you don't get why stuff that people see with their own eyes on TV trumps self-serving, last-minute, gotcha "research" then you are also mystified by the success of Trump. (pun intended)

And how old is Hillary again? "convincing"? Nice... "argument"? nice The implication being, that black people need to provide reasons that sufficiently satisfy you as to why they vote the way they do... or else they're dumb... right? Well in any case I'll give you a the perspective of some black people, and you can decide whether it's "convincing" or not.

As I have said before, its simple. We don't know Bernie, not in the way we know Hillary. We have been watching Hillary square off against and take non-stop fire from our enemy the Republicans for two and a half decades. Bernie just appeared out of the woodwork last year.

As my cousin in Atlanta put it this weekend "Bernie Sanders? Please, shawty get dat outta here! We don't know you like that shawty! Hillary is folk' she been'round, you ain't been'round! You sat wit Mike? Please, I know Mike! He from right around here! You know what tho? He go to them campuses wit that Sanders stuff but he don't come around Southwest! He don't come to his own neighborhood talkin' that Sanders stuff... cause he know... ain't nobody trying ta hear that shawty!"

Hey now no need to get touchy! Let me break this down a bit.

Which you know because you Googled it, whereas her life in Arkansas was on Television. And if you don't get why stuff that people see with their own eyes on TV trumps self-serving, last-minute, gotcha "research" then you are also mystified by the success of Trump. (pun intended)

I was aware that she grew up in the north, I merely googled the specific years (and it was more than I thought it would be!). Having grown up in Chicago, I recognize her natural accent, because it's the one I'm surrounded with everyday.

However, I can understand the television thing. She's very good at adapting to her locales.

And how old is Hillary again? "convincing"? Nice... "argument"? nice The implication being, that black people need to provide reasons that sufficiently satisfy you as to why they vote the way they do... or else they're dumb... right? Well in any case I'll give you a the perspective of some black people, and you can decide whether it's "convincing" or not.

No. This is in response to (in my opinion extremely unconvincing and stupid) arguments like "black people are all low information voters, they don't know any better" "black people vote based on name recognition," "black people vote as a block against their interests," or just simply "black people are stupid."

I don't buy any of those arguments. Black people vote for Clinton for a reason, I just haven't seen a very convincing one that isn't racist or wrong.

As I have said before, its simple. We don't know Bernie, not in the way we know Hillary. We have been watching Hillary square off against and take non-stop fire from our enemy the Republicans for two and a half decades. Bernie just appeared out of the woodwork last year.

As my cousin in Atlanta put it this weekend "Bernie Sanders? Please, shawty get dat outta here! We don't know you like that shawty! Hillary is folk' she been'round, you ain't been'round! You sat wit Mike? Please, I know Mike! He from right around here! You know what tho? He go to them campuses wit that Sanders stuff but he don't come around Southwest! He don't come to his own neighborhood talkin' that Sanders stuff... cause he know... ain't nobody trying ta hear that shawty!"

Brand, name, or political family loyalty I can buy. Just as Sanders has his base in the Northeast that won't turn towards Clinton (BTFO in Vermont), Clinton I guess has the loyalty of minorities she and her husband stuck up for in the 80s and 90s, even if their policies have been disastrous.

However (big however don't get offended!), is there something beyond simple loyalty? Are your neighbors on the whole more conservative or moderate? Is it the young or old expressing this? High income, middle income, low income? I think the loyalty to the Clintonites may be a big factor, but I don't think it's the only factor. I'm honestly curious. The African American voting bloc is always treated like a "voting bloc" and is never given the nuance it deserves. White people are constantly broken down into a million little demographics and their voting patterns explained.

No one ever explains the black vote in a way that isn't super simple or super wrong.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

No one ever explains the black vote in a way that isn't super simple or super wrong.

This is super simple, but I explain the black vote going en masse to the Democrats by the simple fact that the Republicans present no alternative.

 

[civman110]

A hotly contested primary drives turnout for the primary. That says absolutely nothing about turnout in the general election.

Of course it would drive turnout in a general. People who usually don't vote in a primary and are coming out in record numbers to vote for Trump would obviously come out to vote Trump in a general. It's pretty straightforward.

 

[metalhead]

That doesn't mean everyone else that would otherwise show up will still show up. As many or more people could simply decide to sit the election out.

 

[Nexlev]

If the GOP unites behind Ted Cruz, I promise to marry Ivanka Trump and Donald will pay for the wedding.

Together, we can make Nexlev great again.

 

[Camikaze]

Why black voters so overwhelmingly voted for Clinton was ventilated a bit a week or so ago in the Democratic nomination thread, and I think one big reason that was brought up was that on the issue of race, Clinton's message was far more convincing than Sanders, who was seeking to shoehorn issues of race into his economic message, rather than addressing it as a distinct issue. It's not just "we know her", but that when actually hearing this new interloper who has sprung out of the woodwork, the vast majority of black voters for whom this issue was key, consciously selected Clinton's message over the message of Sanders.

I saw a clip from Bill Maher's show the other night, and Michael Eric Dyson (a black professor of sociology at Georgetown) said, in the context of a discussion in which he was defending the 'Black Lives Matter' protester who interrupted the Clinton event and criticizing the use of the term 'super predators', "[Clinton] is the person who has given the most credible, empirical analysis of race in the last 20 years by a major American politician."

Of course, you can disagree that that's true, but from what I have read, that seems to be a common theme.

The other main point was that, whereas it appeared that Sanders woke up one October morning and said, "crap, I need to compete in the South, better roll out Killer Mike", Clinton has made reaching out to the black vote a cornerstone of her campaign from the very beginning (and she was starting from a strong position - see her share of the black vote against Obama, which was much higher than Edwards').

On the flip side, Clinton has not made reaching out to the youth vote a cornerstone of her campaign, but has instead just tried to shoehorn that in at the end. And she's duly suffering the consequences.

 

[civman110]

That doesn't mean everyone else that would otherwise show up will still show up. As many or more people could simply decide to sit the election out.

I don't see anything that would indicate that's a real possibility. You might think some republicans dislike Trump, but they dislike Clinton even more.

 

[metalhead]

People have proven time and again they will be less motivated to come out and vote against someone, than they will be to come out FOR someone.

I'll concede, I don't know more people would stay home, but I don't know they wouldn't. Nobody knows, really. But I do know that basing turnout off of the primary turnout is not going to produce an accurate result.

 

[Sommerswerd]

This I can believe. The popularity of Bill Clinton in the south and the loyalty towards what he and his family have done.

Brand, name, or political family loyalty I can buy. Just as Sanders has his base in the Northeast that won't turn towards Clinton (BTFO in Vermont), Clinton I guess has the loyalty of minorities she and her husband stuck up for in the 80s and 90s, even if their policies have been disastrous.

However (big however don't get offended!), is there something beyond simple loyalty? Are your neighbors on the whole more conservative or moderate? Is it the young or old expressing this? High income, middle income, low income? I think the loyalty to the Clintonites may be a big factor, but I don't think it's the only factor. I'm honestly curious. The African American voting bloc is always treated like a "voting bloc" and is never given the nuance it deserves. White people are constantly broken down into a million little demographics and their voting patterns explained.

No one ever explains the black vote in a way that isn't super simple or super wrong.

See this is the wall that I see folks (Sanders supporters in particular) banging their head against... I tried to analogize it with my story about the train, and me already sitting down. Let me try to further distill it.

It seems like you accept the familiarity/loyalty part. When you really think about it, what Tim was saying is the exact same thing my cousin said, just not as eloquently. Tim said "The Clintons fought alongside blacks in the south." My cousin said "She (Hillary) been'round shawty, you (Bernie) aint been'round."

Now if you can accept the familiarity/loyalty through constant contact-and-common-cause part.. then maybe you can accept that with familiarity/loyalty/common-cause- over-decades leads to a higher level of trust.

Now if you can appreciate that, then here comes the point. Because of everything I just outlined black people were already on Hillary's side to begin with before Bernie even announced his candidacy. Now comes a Bernie supporter, asking why you choose Hillary over Bernie. I didn't. I chose Hillary before I even knew Bernie. The reason I'm with Hillary is obvious and needs no justification or explanation. What you really want to know is why I'm not jumping onboard the Bernie revolution-train. What you are really asking is "Why won't you dump Hillary and switch to Bernie?" And the answer is... Because you haven't convinced me to.

We (blacks) don't have to convince you. You are the one that has to convince us. And you haven't. Trying to turn this around by saying "blacks haven't convinced me" misses the point completely.

 

[Cutlass]

This is super simple, but I explain the black vote going en masse to the Democrats by the simple fact that the Republicans present no alternative.

That explains why blacks are overwhelmingly voting Democratic over Republican. But doesn't get into why they are voting for certain Democrats over other Democrats. It would be irrational in the extreme for blacks to vote Republican. Sommerswerd is offering the first well expressed explanation that I have happened to see as to why they pick one Democrat over the other.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Why black voters so overwhelmingly voted for Clinton was ventilated a bit a week or so ago in the Democratic nomination thread, and I think one big reason that was brought up was that on the issue of race, Clinton's message was far more convincing than Sanders, who was seeking to shoehorn issues of race into his economic message, rather than addressing it as a distinct issue. It's not just "we know her", but that when actually hearing this new interloper who has sprung out of the woodwork, the vast majority of black voters for whom this issue was key, consciously selected Clinton's message over the message of Sanders.

I saw a clip from Bill Maher's show the other night, and Michael Eric Dyson (a black professor of sociology at Georgetown) said, in the context of a discussion in which he was defending the 'Black Lives Matter' protester who interrupted the Clinton event and criticizing the use of the term 'super predators', "[Clinton] is the person who has given the most credible, empirical analysis of race in the last 20 years by a major American politician."

Of course, you can disagree that that's true, but from what I have read, that seems to be a common theme.

The other main point was that, whereas it appeared that Sanders woke up one October morning and said, "crap, I need to compete in the South, better roll out Killer Mike", Clinton has made reaching out to the black vote a cornerstone of her campaign from the very beginning (and she was starting from a strong position - see her share of the black vote against Obama, which was much higher than Edwards').

On the flip side, Clinton has not made reaching out to the youth vote a cornerstone of her campaign, but has instead just tried to shoehorn that in at the end. And she's duly suffering the consequences.

The comparison with youth voters and Clinton helps a lot with me imagining where African Americans are coming from when they overwhelming stick with Clinton. For me, as a youth voter, Clinton does come off as "shoehorning" in youth issues, or even as insincere about them.

I hadn't considered that angle with Sanders and race, mostly because it seemed like he was sincere and has brought it up constantly. However, I am not a racial minority voter, so I cannot judge Sanders from the same angle they do. To me what may seem like enough may come off as platitudes to them, or placing the racial issues underneath the greater economic issues which are his focus. I think I understand it a bit more now. Thank you!

See this is the wall that I see folks (Sanders supporters in particular) banging their head against... I tried to analogize it with my story about the train, and me already sitting down. Let me try to further distill it.

It seems like you accept the familiarity/loyalty part. When you really think about it, what Tim was saying is the exact same thing my cousin said, just not as eloquently. Tim said "The Clintons fought alongside blacks in the south." My cousin said "She (Hillary) been'round shawty, you (Bernie) aint been'round."

Now if you can accept the familiarity/loyalty through constant contact-and-common-cause part.. then maybe you can accept that with familiarity/loyalty/common-cause- over-decades leads to a higher level of trust.

Now if you can appreciate that, then here comes the point. Because of everything I just outlined black people were already on Hillary's side to begin with before Bernie even announced his candidacy. Now comes a Bernie supporter, asking why you choose Hillary over Bernie. I didn't. I chose Hillary before I even knew Bernie. The reason I'm with Hillary is obvious and needs no justification or explanation. What you really want to know is why I'm not jumping onboard the Bernie revolution-train. What you are really asking is "Why won't you dump Hillary and switch to Bernie?" And the answer is... Because you haven't convinced me to.

We (blacks) don't have to convince you. You are the one that has to convince us. And you haven't. Trying to turn this around by saying "blacks haven't convinced me" misses the point completely.

Well I wasn't trying to turn it around and say "blacks haven't convinced me." What I've been exposed to, as some college kid living in Iowa City is a whole lot of older white people and diverse young people talking about African Americans in the south. What they've said has not been convincing to me, as most of it comes off as either ignorant or unaware.

Which is why I'm asking you! And you (along with Tim and Cam) have provided a better image of where Clinton's support comes from. Along with issues of "pandering" on race, I hadn't considered a strong trust in the African American community. The Clintons have been around for a while in the south, almost as long as Bernie has been around in the north. There's a deep connection and level of trust that is not easily overcome (along with a built in mechanism, thanks to years of Republican attacks for dismissing criticism of the Clintons, despite how deserving).

For me, I have not been exposed to years and years of Clinton. Rather, both Bernie and Clinton started at the same point for me and I immediately saw my political likeness in his message. This makes sense for a lot of voters my age, and why we overwhelmingly choose Sanders. Similarly with middle and lower class whites. They haven't trusted the Clintons/establishment (or even the Democratic party as a whole) for a while, and so when presented with a choice between an establishment Clinton or Bernie who speaks to their economic issues, they have slowly but surely picked him up as their choice.

Now, onto an even more interesting bit. If you want to take white America as a whole, the overriding narrative tends to be the older and richer people vote for Clinton. They have those memories of the 90s, and since they're better off they see no need to change the system. Younger people and less well off have been moving towards Bernie because they don't see the current situation as beneficial and desire measured change. Therefore the electorate is split along generational and income based lines.

The trick is, does the same narrative play out in the African American community (and more specifically the southern African American community). Is there the same age gap within the voters, or does the trust for Clinton transcend both generational and wealth categories?

 

[Sommerswerd]

The comparison with youth voters and Clinton helps a lot with me imagining where African Americans are coming from when they overwhelming stick with Clinton. For me, as a youth voter, Clinton does come off as "shoehorning" in youth issues, or even as insincere about them.

I hadn't considered that angle with Sanders and race, mostly because it seemed like he was sincere and has brought it up constantly. However, I am not a racial minority voter, so I cannot judge Sanders from the same angle they do. To me what may seem like enough may come off as platitudes to them, or placing the racial issues underneath the greater economic issues which are his focus. I think I understand it a bit more now. Thank you!

...

Now, onto an even more interesting bit. If you want to take white America as a whole, the overriding narrative tends to be the older and richer people vote for Clinton. They have those memories of the 90s, and since they're better off they see no need to change the system. Younger people and less well off have been moving towards Bernie because they don't see the current situation as beneficial and desire measured change. Therefore the electorate is split along generational and income based lines.

The trick is, does the same narrative play out in the African American community (and more specifically the southern African American community). Is there the same age gap within the voters, or does the trust for Clinton transcend both generational and wealth categories?

In these paragraphs you touch on another side of the issue... We already talked about the value of familiarity, loyalty, common cause, contact... all ultimately creating increased trust. Well there are also "identity politic" effects or "optics" going on that can shortcut that process.

Now this effect has a little more of a tendency to slide under the radar for white guys, because the candidates are usually white guys, but here (like in 2008) we have a good opportunity to see the effect in action. Prez Obama certainly got a shortcut to trust/familiarity with black voters, and I think Bernie is getting a shortcut to trust with white guys vis-à-vis Hillary... because she's a girl, and they're guys. Bernie is a guy, a white guy, like them, so they inherently trust him a little more, it gives you a shortcut to familiarity. Now as I said, this is a little different for white guys because you're used to all the candidates being mostly white guys, but when one of the candidates is not a white guy, but the other is, the effect is immediately apparent. And the exit polls seem to bear this out.

Now how this relates to Hillary and black voters is that she is a non-white-guy, like us, and in that sense she is part of the "out group." It is natural for out-groups to find common cause with each other in certain situations and I think this is one of them. I think that minorities take solace in the idea that a non-white-guy can be elected, because it reinforces the idea that opportunities are becoming available to all the out-groups. Again, common-cause. Bernie just can't deliver this.

On the youth vote. Another factor for young people is they gravitate towards things that are or seem new, different, exciting. Hillary is none of these things. It is natural for young people, college youth in particular to want to be part of movements, revolutions, etc. Its a big part of being young. I could ramble on about the psychology... rebelling against symbols of parents... blah blah... but you get the point. I think that sentiment for youth transcends race, and I definitely see more black young people interested in Sanders than older ones.

 

[metalhead]

I think that's a good point. Familiarity with Hillary has helped her with all voters. Many, many Democrats were on that Hillary train before the Bernie tailgate party showed up. They were on the Hillary train in '08, too, but when the Obama tailgate showed up, it was something voters had heard of. Obama had worked diligently within the confines of the party to raise his profile, and he timed it so that when he announced his campaign, most potential primary voters had at least some level of awareness of him.

Young voters, simply by function of their age, weren't even allowed on the Hillary train in '08. That more than anything probably explains why the difference is so stark - it's not just that Bernie's message is more appealing, but they're not having to pack up their headphones, laptop, coffee, and breakfast to go join the tailgate. Rather, they've just now walked up to the station and want in on the cornhole tournament.

 

[onejayhawk]

Bill was very tight with the black vote. He was even called "The First Black President", see below. Some of that surely carries over.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...d_being_called_the_first_black_president.html

J

 

[CavLancer]

She will try to make an epic mark in history by an unfathomable waste of borrowed Chinese money, that's a given.