[RD] Super Tuesday

[metalhead]

If Hillary hangs on in MA, which it looks like she will, Bernie has no real argument for how he can keep going and expect to win.

 

[Bootstoots]

Here's an interesting result. The only state in which there were enough non-white GOP voters for the exit polls to have acceptable error margins was Texas, where Hispanics made up 10% of Republican voters. Hispanic vote breakdown in Texas:

Cruz - 32%
Trump - 26%
Rubio - 26%

Trump's result here is indistinguishable from the result so far for the whole state (26% vs 28%). Rubio did better while Cruz did worse. The Hispanic Republicans that actually exist don't seem to be a great weakness for Trump at all.

 

[civman110]

Here's an interesting result. The only state in which there were enough non-white GOP voters for the exit polls to have acceptable error margins was Texas, where Hispanics made up 10% of Republican voters. Hispanic vote breakdown in Texas:

Cruz - 32%
Trump - 26%
Rubio - 26%

Trump's result here is indistinguishable from the result so far for the whole state (26% vs 28%). Rubio did better while Cruz did worse. The Hispanic Republicans that actually exist don't seem to be a great weakness for Trump at all.

And Trump is running against two Hispanics...

 

[Martin Alvito]

If Hillary hangs on in MA, which it looks like she will, Bernie has no real argument for how he can keep going and expect to win.

If he scoops up Colorado and Minnesota, he has the argument that he took some states off Hillary and, other than MA, took the drubbing in states where he never had a chance anyway.

Looking like Rubio might finally get on the board in MN. Looking less and less likely that Kasich can get on the board in VT, although it's still not entirely out of the realm of possibility.

 

[Takhisis]

And Trump is running against two Hispanics...

Even if they were the same type of ‘Hispanic’ they'd still syphon votes off each other and clear the way for Drumpf.

 

[Bootstoots]

If Hillary hangs on in MA, which it looks like she will, Bernie has no real argument for how he can keep going and expect to win.

Even if the she didn't, there still wouldn't be any good arguments for Sanders having a real chance of winning. He's running for ideological reasons, though, so I wouldn't expect him to drop for quite a while. Probably not until he either runs out of money or it becomes mathematically impossible to win, whichever comes first.

 

[Takhisis]

Hmmm, Rubio's getting a majority in Minnesota and Sanders is getting majorities in Minnesota and Colorado.

 

[whyidie]

Even if the she didn't, there still wouldn't be any good arguments for Sanders having a real chance of winning. He's running for ideological reasons, though, so I wouldn't expect him to drop for quite a while. Probably not until he either runs out of money or it becomes mathematically impossible to win, whichever comes first.

Banked 40+ million in February. I'd say its delegates before money.

 

[Bootstoots]

Even if they were the same type of ‘Hispanic’ they'd still syphon votes off each other and clear the way for Drumpf.

Yeah, I would definitely differentiate by which Latin American country they come from - I wouldn't expect Mexicans to like a Cuban candidate any more than they would like any non-Hispanic white guy. Still, it's pretty interesting that a state with mostly Mexican Hispanics would not see any large loss of support for Trump.

One thing to consider is that, in common with New Mexico but less so the rest of the US, many of Texas's Hispanics have had ancestors in the US for generations. They (especially their Republicans) probably have more in common with other white people than with descendants of recent immigrants, and probably see Trump from a more or less 'white' perspective.

 

[danjuno]

If he scoops up Colorado and Minnesota, he has the argument that he took some states off Hillary and, other than MA, took the drubbing in states where he never had a chance anyway.

That's exactly what he appears to be doing in those two plus Oklahoma. It's strange as to why he is doing well in states that are equally white but not as liberal as Massachusetts when he is losing that state, albeit just barely.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

If Hillary hangs on in MA, which it looks like she will, Bernie has no real argument for how he can keep going and expect to win.

Sanders' argument has never included any expectation of wining. So nothing new on that front.

As was pointed out many times by many political analysts on many networks tonight; candidates never run out of reasons to run, they just run out of money. Sanders isn't close to running out of money, so I don't see him dropping out.

 

[metalhead]

Even if the she didn't, there still wouldn't be any good arguments for Sanders having a real chance of winning. He's running for ideological reasons, though, so I wouldn't expect him to drop for quite a while. Probably not until he either runs out of money or it becomes mathematically impossible to win, whichever comes first.

This is true, but they could have maintained the pretense at least thru the Michigan primary, especially if Bernie takes Maine and another of the upcoming contests.

 

[Bootstoots]

It does look like he actually got MN and CO along with OK and VT. Four states is enough to keep up enough of a pretense to satisfy many of his core supporters, especially given that the map was fairly unfavorable to him.

 

[Takhisis]

Yeah, I would definitely differentiate by which Latin American country they come from

One's from Canada and the other from the USA.

- I wouldn't expect Mexicans to like a Cuban candidate any more than they would like any non-Hispanic white guy. Still, it's pretty interesting that a state with mostly Mexican Hispanics would not see any large loss of support for Trump.

Why? Trump always uses the third person to refer to his demons. It's never anyone in the room, never a potential voter, but a nebulous ‘they’.

One thing to consider is that, in common with New Mexico but less so the rest of the US, many of Texas's Hispanics have had ancestors in the US for generations. They (especially their Republicans) probably have more in common with other white people than with descendants of recent immigrants, and probably see Trump from a more or less 'white' perspective.

Many Texas' Hispanics have had ancestors there since before it was part of the US.

 

[_random_]

It does look like he actually got MN and CO along with OK and VT. Four states is enough to keep up enough of a pretense to satisfy many of his core supporters, especially given that the map was fairly unfavorable to him.

Yeah, I think the case for Bernie still exists for now, even if tonight was definitely a blow. The Deep South, Clinton's strongest region, was stronger for her than expected, but it's also pretty much through voting, so the focus can shift to more competitive states. He didn't hit his target in Massachusetts, but he exceeded it in Colorado and Oklahoma. There's still lots of voting left to do, and the gap will almost certainly narrow, even if it never closes.

One interesting result from Oklahoma exit polls is that Clinton got 64% of voters who felt the next president should continue Obama's policies, while Sanders got majorities of those who said they should be more or less liberal. Perhaps this primary is best framed as a referendum on the legacy of Obama. If so, the case for Sanders to actually win become harder to argue, as Obama remains quite popular among Democrats. But the cracks in the party may be showing.

 

[civman110]

One things for sure, it was a "Triumphant" night!

Saturday 4 more states.... Trump leading in all of them.

 

[Nexlev]

Turnout in MN was insane. There were over 1000 people packed into a local elementary school for the caucuses, I was told that was well over twice the previous record. Here's a picture of how packed and hectic it was getting in.

This is the kind of local perspective that I really enjoy seeing. The rest of us speculate, those with boots on the ground really know what's happening.

Kudos to MN tonight. Really surprised me.

FWIW, turnout in AK was incredible as well

 

[Sommerswerd]

I expected two to come up pretty quickly, but I'm disappointed with Mass.

Don't be mad at us! We did our job!

The polls that we had were predicting murder in the first degree in MA, so it's not a huge surprise.

Yeah there were a bunch of Trump supporters with signs outside town hall (my town's polling place) the night before the primary... In the morning though, there were only Hillary supporters out there with signs, all female. I voted in the morning and my wife went last night after work, she said it was literally all senior citizens voting, so I'm guessing that was mostly Hillary voters. I find it interesting that the Trump signs were out in force at night, but gone in the morning. To me that indicates he resonates with the working folks in my town, whereas Hillary has the stay home Moms.

If Hillary hangs on in MA, which it looks like she will, Bernie has no real argument for how he can keep going and expect to win.

Lols... I told my wife yesterday that it was going to be really close... she said "Really?!? Ohmygosh I better take off my lunch break so I don't miss the polls closing! Do you know when the polls close?" I said "Nope that's why you shoulda gone before work like me" she got all stressed about it and took her lunch break to drive back home and vote... poor gal

To be blunt, he needs there to be as few black voters as possible.

That's true, but not so fast... I was talking to my cousin in GA this weekend and he reminded me of something that I mentioned a long time ago in the Battleground Thread. Hillary is a southerner and Southerners embrace her as one of them. It's easy to lump her in with northeaster liberals because of her serving as NY Senator, but Hillary's from Arkansas. The way my cousin described it, was that "The white folks down here like a person that knows how to sit and eat barbecue and doesn't look down on the South. They know Hillary is folk' deep down."

 

[Joecoolyo]

That's true, but not so fast... I was talking to my cousin in GA this weekend and he reminded me of something that I mentioned a long time ago in the Battleground Thread. Hillary is a southerner and Southerners embrace her as one of them. It's easy to lump her in with northeaster liberals because of her serving as NY Senator, but Hillary's from Arkansas. The way my cousin described it, was that "The white folks down here like a person that knows how to sit and eat barbecue and doesn't look down on the South. They know Hillary is folk' deep down."

Which is odd because she spent the first 27 years of her life living in Chicago and Massachusetts.

Sanders' chances of winning various states has relatively little to do with those states' political ideologies, as Oklahoma shows. To be blunt, he needs there to be as few black voters as possible. That seems to be by far the most important factor in determining how likely he is to win various states, given that he loses that demographic almost as badly as Republicans lose them against Democrats. On the other hand, the relatively few poor rural and small-town whites remaining in the Democratic party are actually a strong group for him.

Honestly, I still haven't heard a convincing argument why minorities like African Americans and latinos in the south love Clinton so much. Best I could surmise is the "they're more conservative" thing and hence they prefer the more conservative or moderate candidate.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Honestly, I still haven't heard a convincing argument why minorities like African Americans and latinos in the south love Clinton so much. Best I could surmise is the "they're more conservative" thing and hence they prefer the more conservative or moderate candidate.

Just guessing, since I don't presume to speak for them...


Bill Clinton as governor of Arkansas went toe to toe with the "we desegregated because we had to, but we can meet the letter of the law and still screw the blacks" educational system and rebuilt it from the ground up, over fierce opposition...and since no one else in Arkansas was interested in risking their political career siding with him the chair of his commission was Hillary Clinton. I'm guessing that southern blacks who experienced education at the time, who would now be in their thirties-forties remember that fight better than they remember MLK marches that happened before they were born.

"Okay, you marched with MLK, but Hillary Clinton stood with me" is an overpowering argument.