Super Typhoon Haiyan Beelines for the Philippines

[Murky]

This should be all over the news.

The Philippines is in line for a direct hit from the strongest storm on Earth this year. Super Typhoon Haiyan will be the fifth typhoon to hit the country this year, but its powerful winds, soaking rains, and a potent storm surge could make it the most dangerous yet.

Extremely warm waters in the western tropical Pacific helped fuel Haiyan’s growth. Surface water temperatures over the past few months have been around 2-3°F above average. Wind shear, which can tear apart tropical storms, is also very low.

Those factors have helped Haiyan explode from a typhoon to a super typhoon in 24 hours. A super typhoon is the equivalent of a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. As of late Wednesday morning, satellite estimates showed Haiyan’s sustained winds topping out at 185 mph. That would make it the strongest storm to form this year, surpassing Super Typhoon Usagi, which struck China in September and attained top wind speeds of 162 mph.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/supertyphoon-haiyan-beelines-for-the-philippines-16708

 

[Cutlass]

I've heard it said that the Philippines is the worst place on Earth for natural disasters.

 

[Murky]

From Dr. Jeff Master's

Super Typhoon Haiyan is one of the most intense tropical cyclones in world history, with sustained winds an incredible 190 mph, gusting to 230 mph, said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in their 15 UTC (10 am EST) November 7, 2013 advisory. Officially, the strongest tropical cyclone in world history was Super Typhoon Nancy of 1961, with sustained winds of 215 mph. However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. Since 1969, only three tropical cyclones have equaled Haiyan's 190 mph sustained winds--the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, the Atlantic's Hurricane Camille of 1969, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. All three of these storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds, but Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence. Some interpretations of satellite intensity estimates suggest that there may have been two super typhoons stronger than Tip--Super Typhoon Gay of 1992, and Super Typhoon Angela of 1995. We don't have any measurements of Haiyan's central pressure, but it may be close to the all-time record of 870 mb set by Super Typhoon Tip. The Japan Meteorological Agency estimated Haiyan's central pressure at 895 mb at 12 UTC (7 am EST) November 7, 2013. Haiyan has the most spectacular appearance I've ever seen on satellite loops, with a prominent eye surrounded by a huge, impenetrable-looking mass of intense eyewall thunderstorms with tops that reach into the lower stratosphere. With landfall expected to occur by 21 UTC (4 pm EST) on Thursday, Haiyan doesn't have time to weaken much before landfall, and will likely hit the Philippines at Category 5 strength.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2572

 

[cybrxkhan]

This is gonna suck really big time for the Philippines.

How does this compare to Katrina, out of curiosity?

 

[Murky]

This is gonna suck really big time for the Philippines.

How does this compare to Katrina, out of curiosity?

It's a stronger storm than Katrina was, but it's a different situation. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[warpus]

Hmm how is this going to impact Thailand, if at all? Anybody in the know? I'm there Nov 15 - Dec 15.

 

[cybrxkhan]

It's a stronger storm than Katrina was, but it's a different situation. We'll just have wait and see.

Yeah, US didn't handle Katrina too well, but on the Phillippines that's gonna be a lot worse.

 

[Joecoolyo]

How does this compare to Katrina, out of curiosity?

Katrina maxed out at a decently strong Cat 5 strength, but weakened before landfall to a Cat 3, and died very quickly after. The winds weren't the issue with Katrina, but rather the storm surge that was whipped up during its quick stint as a Cat 5.

This, which I didn't even know about until now (shame on you Joe!), but I trust Dr. Masters a lot, is an entirely different beast. Very rarely do you ever see a Cat 5 landfall, and especially not at this strength. I'd assume the worst possible will and can happen.

EDIT: In terms of an Atlantic comparison storm, not much comes to mind at all. There have been a decent amount of Category 5's, some of which have gotten absurdly strong (Wilma, Camille, Allen), but rarely do they ever retain their status at landfall. In fact, only 3 storms in the 20th century have made landfall in the U.S. at Cat 5 strength (not necessarily the strength of Haiyan, bare in mind), Camille, Andrew, and the Labor Day Hurricane. If you want to see something comparable to the damage it can do, look up those 3 hurricanes.

But as I said, at this strength, we're moving into uncharted territory here. The other typhoons mentioned in the article, Gay, Tip, were all fish-storms at their peak strength, and died down before landfall.

 

[KMRblue1027]

The LD Hurricane is the best comparison which is scary as hell.

 

[Dale]

Whilst this is tragic for the Philippines, calling it "one of the strongest storms EVA!!!!" is pretty misleading. There's many typhoons, cyclones and hurricanes that were stronger.

Even in the Western-Pacific this is only the equal 21st strongest storm in that region.

But my thoughts go out to all in its path. Hopefully preparations have been enough to keep the human toll low.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Whilst this is tragic for the Philippines, calling it "one of the strongest storms EVA!!!!" is pretty misleading. There's many typhoons, cyclones and hurricanes that were stronger.

Even in the Western-Pacific this is only the equal 21st strongest storm in that region.

Where are you getting that ranking? Going by just the sustained wind alone, this is pretty damn strong.

I much prefer ranking according to lowest central pressure compared to wind, more nuance and less guess. Though I'm having a hard time finding its current pressure reading, odd as that may be. 895 is cited in the article, but with the current winds, you'd think it would be a lot lower than that.

Anyone know?

EDIT: I need to read the article closer, they haven't been able to measure it so far, only estimates like the 895 above. Its nearing landfall now, so maybe they can get an accurate reading from the ground.

 

[timtofly]

Yeah, US didn't handle Katrina too well, but on the Phillippines that's gonna be a lot worse.

The trouble with Katrina was the levies giving way and flooding levels that were at sea level, along with the storm surge.

@ Warpus

If Thailand is in the path of the heavy rains, it will probably flood out again, unless they have taken flood precautions.

 

[Murky]

I've been following it on twitter. Some of the stuff coming out of there is pretty intense. Where it made landfall was devastated.

video
http://instagram.com/p/gbow7rKWz7/

damage
https://twitter.com/alastormspotter/status/398608298510802944/photo/1

 

[Dale]

Where are you getting that ranking? Going by just the sustained wind alone, this is pretty damn strong.

I much prefer ranking according to lowest central pressure compared to wind, more nuance and less guess. Though I'm having a hard time finding its current pressure reading, odd as that may be. 895 is cited in the article, but with the current winds, you'd think it would be a lot lower than that.

Anyone know?

EDIT: I need to read the article closer, they haven't been able to measure it so far, only estimates like the 895 above. Its nearing landfall now, so maybe they can get an accurate reading from the ground.

Here's the list I read. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

You won't get official readings for a few weeks, and satellite estimates aren't taken as official at all (only ground readings). With the intensity of this typhoon, it could be weeks before the instrumentation is recovered and recorded for history.

BTW, Ryan Maue (tropical storm expert) has this to say about landfall:
23:00 UTC ATCF intensity estimate of #Haiyan at landfall was 170-knots 11.0°N, 125°E w/estimated central pressure at 895 mb

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/398598448938618880

 

[mangxema]

Hmm how is this going to impact Thailand, if at all? Anybody in the know? I'm there Nov 15 - Dec 15.

I saw this track. It looks like it will curve away from Thailand, but of course, with a storm this big and powerful, there still could be a lot of damage, especially in the northern parts.

 

[Joecoolyo]

Here's the list I read. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_most_intense_tropical_cyclones

You won't get official readings for a few weeks, and satellite estimates aren't taken as official at all (only ground readings). With the intensity of this typhoon, it could be weeks before the instrumentation is recovered and recorded for history.

BTW, Ryan Maue (tropical storm expert) has this to say about landfall:
23:00 UTC ATCF intensity estimate of #Haiyan at landfall was 170-knots 11.0°N, 125°E w/estimated central pressure at 895 mb

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/398598448938618880

Makes sense; I'm used to following Atlantic storms, with constant hurricane hunter presence giving pressure readings around the clock.

With an estimated pressure at 895, that puts it on par in strength with Rita for the moment, though that would be Rita at peak and not landfall intensity.

 

[Synobun]

It just crossed over to 8.1 on the Dvorak scale. 8 is the previously defined maximum. 370km/hr wind gusts.

This is going to be a nasty one.

 

[Murky]

As viewed from space.

 

[Formaldehyde]

Large magnitude typhoons are quite common in that general area. When I was living on Okinawa as a child, two 175+ mph typhoons hit the island in the two years I lived there. During the second one, the eye passed right over our house. There was a 30 minute period where there was a dead calm. My brother and I even went outside and played for a few minutes.

 

[classical_hero]

Cav Lancer will need to keep safe, or is he in a part that isn't badly affected. Hopefully with the advance warning they got, that most people will survive. Just last year they had a powerful storm hit and that killed 1,000 people./