T.S. Ike

[TheLastOne36]

it seems the image seems to update by it's self.

Orange didn't have the giant curve to florida before, but rather was pointing at NO, and now red seems plausable.

 

[Quasar1011]

Ike is about to make landfall in eastern Cuba, as a category 3 hurricane.

From there, Ike is projected to get into the central- perhaps even western- Gulf of Mexico:

 

[Quasar1011]

Radar from Cuba:

This shows the center of Ike a) missing the highest mountains in Cuba, and b) about ready to exit the island. Both will cause the NHC to re-evaluate its path and strength, methinks.

 

[Quasar1011]

The 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows Ike making a south Texas landfall Saturday evening...

 

[emzie]

Quasar, none of your attachments are coming up for me.

 

[Firstlady]

Quasar, none of your attachments are coming up for me.

Same here.

 

[Perfection]

Will there ever be a T.S. Elliot?

 

[Quasar1011]

Latest radar from Cuba. One can spot the eye just off the southern coast.

 

[Quasar1011]

Here is the latest on Hurricane Ike.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES ...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

 

[Godwynn]

You're the expert here Quasar. Does this pose any risk to Houston or is it too far inland?

I suspect Galveston to take a big hit.

 

[Evie]

What they said...

"PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH." - Houston National Weather Service.

"Unless you're fatigued with living, I suggest you want to take seriously a storm of this size and scale," - Homeland Security

AFAIK 100K people at least have received evacuation orders for Houston. And Houston has taken beatings from storms in the past.

 

[Quasar1011]

You're the expert here Quasar. Does this pose any risk to Houston or is it too far inland?

I suspect Galveston to take a big hit.

Any risk in Houston, meaning deaths? Yes. Even though Houston is not directly on the coast like Galveston is, and won't face the storm surge like Galveston will, the dangers from hours of hurricane-force winds, flooding rains, and even tornadoes cannot be taken lightly. Morning update:

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY... A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER...IKE IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.7N 91.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.4N 93.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 31.3N 95.7W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/0600Z 34.4N 94.7W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 41.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

-------------------------
A radar loop from Louisiana. The center of Ike is just at the edge of the radar's range. Spiral bands are already rotating around the storm and passing through New Orleans.

A visible photo from space of Ike:

 

[Evie]

The surging has already started in Galveston.

 

[Quasar1011]

Ike still headed for the Houston metro area. It needs to turn a little to the left/north to make a direct hit on Galveston. In this radar loop, that city is call sign GLS.

Ike is a large storm, with a large windfield. The winds, described textually and graphically:

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 93.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Just before sunset, the latest visible satellite photo from space, zoomed in on Ike:

 

[Evie]

More than 40% of Galveston's population is still there.

I'm beginning to think the hurricane fatigue + Gustav "false alarm" + "Just a category 2" combination is going to prove on the murderous side...

 

[FriendlyFire]

More than 40% of Galveston's population is still there.

I'm beginning to think the hurricane fatigue + Gustav "false alarm" + "Just a category 2" combination is going to prove on the murderous side...

I thought that the governer told texans to "Breace" and not "flee" ?
and the flee warning for was "Galveston Island"


Also is it just me or is there ANOTHER hurrican forming to the FAIL west East ?

 

[Azale]

And Corpus avoids another hurricane. Now we are about 6 years overdue.

 

[Godwynn]

I thought that the governer told texans to "Breace" and not "flee" ?
and the flee warning for was "Galveston Island"


Also is it just me or is there ANOTHER hurrican forming to the west ?

That is the remnants of Tropical Storm Josephine. She may have a last hurrah.

 

[BEHIND_THE_MASK]

Hey comrades...

I'm currently bunkered down in a small town not far from the Texas Coast, a little town called Splendora and it looks like the hurricanes gonna soon.

Wish me the best of luck comrades!

 

[emzie]

I thought that the governer told texans to "Breace" and not "flee" ?
and the flee warning for was "Galveston Island"

People living in low-laying areas (such as Galveston) were told to flee. People inland, out of the way of storm surge were told to brace.

Anyone still in Galveston is taking a huge risk. 20-25 feet of water is roof level.