Texas GOP

[amadeus]

At 130 yen to the dollah I’m thinking my SS should be taken out of Uncle Sam’s pocket, not Uncle somebody else!

Ah, Texas.

My thought kind of went to, like, isn’t a straight marriage a discriminatory gubmit benefit? Tax filings etc.

Texas GOP didn’t think it through. If marriage is a covenant between man, woman, and Lord, then why we got these civil servants stickin’ their foot in the door?

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Oh lordy, former GOP Missouri Governor Eric Greitens dropped a senate campaign ad today.
Greitens was forced to resign as governor in 2018 for sexual assault allegations and improper campaign finance stuff.

Wow, whoa, oof

Ah, Texas.

So they're eating their own?

 

[IglooDame]

goes to register all sorts of "Texit" domain names

And then the "Lone Star Nation" joins OPEC...

 

[JollyRoger]

Texas doesn't really want out. Every time there is some sort of disaster or the governor chips a nail, Texas screams for Federal aid.

 

[EgonSpengler]

I've thought about this a little over the last few years, but only superficially. On that level, if a state like Texas wanted to leave the Union, I might not oppose them. I think an amicable divorce can sometimes be the best thing for everybody involved. However, I would worry that allowing a place like Texas to go its own way would result in it becoming the worst version of itself rather than the best. I don't know whether being part of the US is actually restraining its worst cultural impulses. Would an independent Texas in 2023 become a violent autocracy that invades its neighbors in 2063? You don't need to be Tom Clancy to imagine a scenario where Texas just gets sick and tired of the Mexican cartels and decides to cross the border and handle the problem of violence with more violence. Or maybe they become like China, and Texas frigates start bumping Louisiana fishing boats in a territorial dispute over oil drilling rights in the Gulf.

 

[Samson]

I've thought about this a little over the last few years, but only superficially. On that level, if a state like Texas wanted to leave the Union, I might not oppose them. I think an amicable divorce can sometimes be the best thing for everybody involved. However, I would worry that allowing a place like Texas to go its own way would result in it becoming the worst version of itself rather than the best. I don't know whether being part of the US is actually restraining its worst cultural impulses. Would an independent Texas in 2023 become a violent autocracy that invades its neighbors in 2063? You don't need to be Tom Clancy to imagine a scenario where Texas just gets sick and tired of the Mexican cartels and decides to cross the border and handle the problem of violence with more violence. Or maybe they become like China, and Texas frigates start bumping Louisiana fishing boats in a territorial dispute over oil drilling rights in the Gulf.

It is certainly possible, but I cannot imagine Texas fielding a Navy to compete with the USN though. That cannot be a reason to deny a region self determination though. We had a thread on separatism.

 

[Hygro]

you are assuming political competence that just isn't there.

I’m assuming a forgone conclusion, sadly, while always giving what should be, a chance.

 

[Rg339]

I've thought about this a little over the last few years, but only superficially. On that level, if a state like Texas wanted to leave the Union, I might not oppose them. I think an amicable divorce can sometimes be the best thing for everybody involved. However, I would worry that allowing a place like Texas to go its own way would result in it becoming the worst version of itself rather than the best. I don't know whether being part of the US is actually restraining its worst cultural impulses. Would an independent Texas in 2023 become a violent autocracy that invades its neighbors in 2063? You don't need to be Tom Clancy to imagine a scenario where Texas just gets sick and tired of the Mexican cartels and decides to cross the border and handle the problem of violence with more violence. Or maybe they become like China, and Texas frigates start bumping Louisiana fishing boats in a territorial dispute over oil drilling rights in the Gulf.

No. Texas independence would be a farce. They’re firmly within the American economic and cultural sphere. For an independent Texas to invade Mexico would break Pax Americana, not happening. Even the internal politics of Texas would be subject to American influence. Any policy not really liked could result in sanctions that while meaningless to America as a whole, would cripple the Texan economy.

Texas is arguably more independent WITHIN the US than they would be outside of it.

 

[EgonSpengler]

It is certainly possible, but I cannot imagine Texas fielding a Navy to compete with the USN though. That cannot be a reason to deny a region self determination though. We had a thread on separatism.

It depends what you mean by "compete." China is bullying its neighbors and staking claims to territory. Does that mean China can "compete" with the US Navy? If you mean a hot shooting war, no, but a shooting war is the worst-case scenario. That's what we're trying to avoid. If letting Texas become a sovereign power means it's a belligerent [tool] in another generation or two, then maybe trying to get them to remain in the Union is the lesser of two evils. It's also not a question of allowing or denying them self determination, it's all a matter of degrees. They have a lot of self determination right now. I'm not sure how many Texans actually want literal independent sovereignty, or understand what that would mean.

Like I say, I haven't undertaken a close analysis of what it would mean, either to Texas or to the rest of the US, if Texas became a separate nation. I'm just saying I'm open to the idea of them being a friendly neighbor with whom we have trade and good relations, but no longer have to put up with their weird [stink] (and they'd no longer have to put with ours, of course). otoh, if Texas were to be a problematic neighbor, granting them some kind of concession to remain in the Union (and I don't know what that would be) might be the lesser of two evils. Ultimately, yeah, if Texas really just wanted to leave, I'm not willing to fight a war to keep them, like we did in 1862.

 

[Birdjaguar]

If NM closed the gates on the reservoir at Elephant Butte, it could dry up the Rio Grande in TX. El Paso could even secede from TX and join NM where it actually belongs.

 

[EgonSpengler]

If NM closed the gates on the reservoir at Elephant Butte, it could dry up the Rio Grande in TX. El Paso could even secede from TX and join NM where it actually belongs.

Yeah, water is one of those places where a lot of pushing & shoving could happen.

I was just glancing at some analysis done by the World Population Review. I don't understand most of it yet, but I note that Texas receives the 2nd-highest amount of Federal funding, after California, $26.9b total, $304 net per person. That is, Texans recieve $304 per person from Federal funds more than they contribute to Federal funds. By contrast, California gets $43.6b total - the highest in the country - but only $12 net per person. That's not to say that Texas' economy would collapse into ruin if they were an independent sovereign nation, though. That would be much too simplistic. It's possible Texas could easily make up for that $27 billion loss if they could fully manage their own economy, negotiate their own trade deals, etc. In the short term, if they were careful, they'd still have the port of Houston, currently the 5th-largest in the US by TEUs. And I believe the pipelines to the Gulf Coast that go through Texas are tremendous. In the longer term, the U.S. would build infrastructure elsewhere, to reduce reliance on Texas pipelines, unless Texas made sure it was worth our while to use theirs. They'd also have to negotiate with Canada, where a buttload of that stuff comes from (one of the things President Obama doesn't get enough credit for, imho, is transitioning away from reliance on Saudi Arabia for energy and towards Canada). We're seeing in Eastern Europe what can happen when someone's oil & gas has to transit someone else's pipelines. I'm not sure how much oil & gas that goes out of Texas ports actually comes from Texas.

 

[JollyRoger]

The U.S. or Texas (or maybe even both) would build a YUGE beautiful wall along the Red River to keep the riff raff out.

 

[Lexicus]

I would actually be fine with allowing Texas to secede from the US, then using it as a bantustan to deport conservatives to from the rest of the US.

 

[IglooDame]

I'm presuming Oklahoma would join their southern neighbor in the departure. Certainly it would make the maps a little cleaner.

 

[Bamspeedy]

but I note that Texas receives the 2nd-highest amount of Federal funding, after California, $26.9b total,

Not suprising for the 2nd most populated state.

$304 net per person. That is, Texans recieve $304 per person from Federal funds more than they contribute to Federal funds. By contrast, California gets $43.6b total - the highest in the country - but only $12 net per person.

It does look like a big difference between $304 and $12, but does it suprise you how little the difference in state rank is? (38th and 40th for most federal spending per person).

The billion numbers in your post seems to be off by a decimal point. (269 billion, not 26.9 for example, and 436 billion not 43.6)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/federal-aid-by-state

 

[El_Machinae]

The U.S. or Texas (or maybe even both) would build a YUGE beautiful wall along the Red River to keep the riff raff out.

This is a great idea. It might be more efficient to trick Texan farmers into starting it, though. They can make, I dunno, .... Mexico(?) pay for it?

I'm sympathetic to secession, tbh. I don't think you're actually free unless you can leave. That said, I often wish these secessionists would succeed, switch to a gold standard currency, and then let me move out (of Alberta, or Texas, or whatever) and let me watch their social experiment provide a warning to other groups that believe that integrated countries are 'worse' than separate ones.

 

[EgonSpengler]

Not suprising for the 2nd most populated state.

Indeed, population is a factor.

It does look like a big difference between $304 and $12, but does it suprise you how little the difference in state rank is? (38th and 40th for most federal spending per person).

Right, $304 isn't a lot. Virginians, for example, net over $10,000 per person in federal spending. Note that these are net totals, not actual spending.

The billion numbers in your post seems to be off by a decimal point. (269 billion, not 26.9 for example, and 436 billion not 43.6)

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/federal-aid-by-state

No, those numbers are right. Regardless, it's a lot, but perhaps not so much that Texas couldn't make up the difference, if it had to.

 

[El_Machinae]

Unless there's useful productivity being bought with that $304 (and it's easy for there to be), that amount of money is basically going to be just sufficient to cause useful inflation. So, it's not so much a subsidy as a perk. Wealth is sufficiently concentrated such that an entire region should be probably running a net deficit in fiat currency.

Which makes me salivate regarding them switching to a fixed currency even more.

 

[Hygro]

Texas would be fine as its own country.

 

[Edmund Ironside]

Those in the Texas GOP wishing for Texas to become an independent country are living in a fantasy world. Its pretty much a purple state these days.
Its been trending leftwards pretty consistently over the last 20 years.

GOP Winning margins:
2000: Bush = 21.32%
2004: Bush = 22.87%
2008: McCain = 11.8%
2012: Romney = 15.78%
2016: Trump = 9%
2020: Trump = 5.56%

The leftwards trend is why when they gerrymandered the state this year the GOP focused on shoring up their own districts rather then going on the attack and trying to crack Democrat districts.
Of course if the Democrats continue their recent drop in Hispanic support as seen in the 2020 election this trend may be slowed or even reversed (and 2024 is not shaping up as being a good elections for the Democrats).
Still as things stand the GOP almost certainly don't have the support they need for such a bonkers plan. Now if Texas was still as red as it was 20 years ago maybe they could have an outside shot of such a thing happening.
I won't be losing any sleep over it either way. If California went independent now I would be worried, as that would immediately cause the USA to lurch to the right.