The crypto thread

[warpus]

Bear markets have happened in the past, haven't they? If anyone's serious about this space this would surely be the time to buy in, not sell. Makes zero sense to get excited about the technology only during bull market runs, when everything's expensive

 

[El_Machinae]

Kinda. There's a rule of finance markets - "don't try to catch a falling knife". Buying in during a bear market always looks like the game-winning move in retrospect, but usually the only real winners (other than the lucky) are people who did value-based analysis and then bought things that were inappropriately cheap. How do you do a value-analysis on something worthless?
They look like a hedge against inflation, but the last time around people forgot that the Fed could actually fight inflation. So, if people had sold at the correct time, they could have retained savings that beat inflation. But they didn't.

 

[Birdjaguar]

With the US stock markets, bottoms have been successfully noted pretty close to when they happen. Buying then is the best move if you have cash to invest. For crypto I'm not sure anyone is good at correctly identifying the bottoms. Given that, the best strategy might be to dollar cost average into the currencies you want to hold until you know things have turned around.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Deader than a Dodo. I hope you* don't have any still
*generic reader!

Trump NTFs is where the smart money is
*taps forehead*

 

[warpus]

Kinda. There's a rule of finance markets - "don't try to catch a falling knife". Buying in during a bear market always looks like the game-winning move in retrospect, but usually the only real winners (other than the lucky) are people who did value-based analysis and then bought things that were inappropriately cheap. How do you do a value-analysis on something worthless?
They look like a hedge against inflation, but the last time around people forgot that the Fed could actually fight inflation. So, if people had sold at the correct time, they could have retained savings that beat inflation. But they didn't.

I should have been more specific in that I am referring to people who have been excited about crypto in the past and bought in when it was expensive.

The technology hasn't changed, so those exact people should be buying right now instead, you'd think, if they did the research and they think the technology will stick around.

Ofc it all falls apart if they're just riding the wave of emotions and buying when everything's expensive, then selling when everything's cheap

 

[Kaitzilla]

SBF has been arrested in the Bahamas.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. files criminal charges

Sam Bankman-Fried's arrest is the first concrete move by regulators to hold individuals accountable for the multibillion-dollar implosion of FTX last month.

www.cnbc.com

**Edit**
There were some hints this was coming.

King and queen of the crypto con may be turning on each other

After Bankman-Fried suggested she might be to blame for a missing $8 billion in customer money, Ellison could be signaling she’s willing to flip on her old boyfriend with the hiring of the law firm…

nypost.com

Especially when the current CEO of FTX testified to Congress today that customer funds were comingled. (The arrest came hours later?)

New FTX CEO to tell Congress about bankrupt crypto firm's 'spending binge,' loans to insiders

FTX CEO John J. Ray III plans to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

Things moved really fast when I wasn't looking.

Instead of spending months in the rat-infested hell-jail in the Bahamas, SBF is now in the US and is at home with his parents on $250 million bail?

Sam Bankman-Fried Released On $250 Million Bond—But He Only Put Up A Fraction Of That

Bankman-Fried essentially put up none of his own money as part of the agreement, which is only secured by equity in his parents' house and a promise to return to court.

www.forbes.com

I thought he was down to $100k?

His girlfriend and other business partner have also reportedly cut a deal already and pled guilty to something.

MSN

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Surprise surprise, even the most successful con artists started out with as silver spoon.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Things moved really fast when I wasn't looking.

Instead of spending months in the rat-infested hell-jail in the Bahamas, SBF is now in the US and is at home with his parents on $250 million bail?

Sam Bankman-Fried Released On $250 Million Bond—But He Only Put Up A Fraction Of That

Bankman-Fried essentially put up none of his own money as part of the agreement, which is only secured by equity in his parents' house and a promise to return to court.

www.forbes.com

I thought he was down to $100k?

His girlfriend and other business partner have also reportedly cut a deal already and pled guilty to something.

MSN

Some more about how he made $250 million bail.

He got 4 people to sign the bail bond for him.
So if he runs they are all on the hook for $250 million.

Also, his parent's house was put up for the 10% collateral, so if he runs the feds grab that and pocket it first.

The house some people estimate is worth $4 million, but it met the $25 million requirement because *reasons*.

They took his passport, so he is less likely to run.

He will spend the months leading up to his trial in his parent's Palo Alto mansion.

SBF's home confinement order in Palo Alto sparks outrage: "Pitiful joke"

Sam Bankman-Fried was arrested on December 12 in the Bahamas before his extradition to the United States this week.

www.newsweek.com

If he is going to win a League of Legends tournament before jail, he needs to hurry.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Judge keeps guilty pleas secret

NEW YORK — A judge kept secret that two of Sam Bankman-Fried’s closest associates had turned against him so the cryptocurrency entrepreneur wouldn’t fight extradition from the Bahamas, according to court transcripts made public Friday.

U.S. prosecutors in New York waited until Bankman-Fried, founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, was in FBI custody before revealing that his business partners, Carolyn Ellison and Gary Wang, had secretly pleaded guilty to fraud charges and were cooperating, which can earn them leniency at sentencing.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams announced the guilty pleas when Bankman-Fried was in the air late Wednesday.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

Just the latest ponzi scheme.

Can someone please let me know of the next one, before it goes pop?!

 

[Birdjaguar]

Just the latest ponzi scheme.

Can someone please let me know of the next one, before it goes pop?!

Trump's NFTs cards on the secondary market. Buy a bunch, you get richer.

 

[innonimatu]

Just the latest ponzi scheme.

Can someone please let me know of the next one, before it goes pop?!

It's not just this one company, all the crypto thing is a ponzi scheme. Whatever profits are taken out by participants must be from money put in by newcomers, because the "technology" itself produces noting useful, is good for nothing, creates no wealth. It's a transfer game.

The proof that the technology is good for nothing is that all these companies run their businesses on closed databases. They are all about creating "markets" for the "blockchain tokens" held by the companies in their own databases.

This was always just another old-fashioned financial ponzi scheme with new jargon to deceive unaware people. These things never change, really. Money goes in, money goes out, do an analysis on that as a closed system, something any trained engineer should do. Trace a border around the system, check the points of inflow and outflow. If it's just "investment" in, profit out, it's a ponzi scheme.

That so many "tech people" with "engineer" in the professional title got fooled into this, also tells a lot about other economic activities currently going on, how hallowed out thee professional classes are. And the businesses that employ them.
So the next one may well be the internet whales, the advertisement monopolies...

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

I don't think you can reasonably claim advertising is a ponzi scheme. It's a gargantuan industry all others are willing to pour significant proportions of their budgets into. Humans are willful, that isn't going to suddenly change.

 

[EnglishEdward]

The most useful businesses spend the least on advertising.

In hard times, there may be a general cutback on discretionary spending.

And with genuine supply shortages, the challenge is increasing supply not demand.

 

[Kaitzilla]

If my AI chatbot answers every question I ask it correctly, I won't use Google anymore, nor look at their ads.

 

[Aiken_Drumn]

If my AI chatbot answers every question I ask it correctly, I won't use Google anymore, nor look at their ads.

Is it your AI chatbot, or googles? Are there adverts on the AI chatbots page?

 

[Kaitzilla]

Is it your AI chatbot, or googles? Are there adverts on the AI chatbots page?

I'm not sure.

I just like to change owners once and a while.

Google in panic mode over the threat of OpenAI’s chatbot - Report

Google is terrified of the danger that OpenAI's ChatGPT model poses to its supremacy in internet search. The corporation is reacting by dramatically

www.techzine.eu

I imagine the Chatbot can shoehorn in, "this search brought to you by Coca-Cola" like some kind of radio announcer.

 

[Kaitzilla]

His girlfriend and other business partner have also reportedly cut a deal already and pled guilty to something.

Ex-Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX cofounder Gary Wang plead guilty to charges and are cooperating with authorities, US attorneys say

SBF is also cutting a deal and will be getting a plea bargain on January 3rd.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried likely to enter plea deal: report

Sam Bankman-Fried is expected to enter a plea deal next week to fraud charges connected to the collapse of cryptocurrency FTX Reuters reported.

news.yahoo.com

Wait, Ellison and Wang got a sweet deal to testify against SBF most likely.

Why is SBF getting a deal?

Plea bargain - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[El_Machinae]

To save the effort of a trial, and then transparency with regards to helping lawmakers fix the loopholes?

 

[Samson]

To save the effort of a trial, and then transparency with regards to helping lawmakers fix the loopholes?

I am not sure that zero oversight or pro-active investigation counts as a loophole as much as...