If you went commerce you could also get range 5 lancers with free pillage to go with the rest - tho it would take a few turns of pillaging to pay back the gold cost .. (buy mercenaries upgrade to lancer) (on second thought that crazy science probably means rationalism)
It's a low culture game for me (no cultural CS found yet, no pantheon, lost Oracle early, etc) so social policies are pretty bare bones: Full Liberty -> Tradition Opener -> Rationalism Opener. I would like Secularism, but getting more happiness is even more important. At t150 we've just voted on the World's Fair. Since it is the only congress proposal (Poc's died along with his civilization), it should pass. That means Monarchy is reachable very soon, and probably required if I want to hold Paris. Protectionism would be better, but there are fewer stepping stones along the way and I can't get there before Ideologies, anyways.
Upgraded Landsknecht would be lovely, but I think Impi can play a similar pillaging role.
That's a long answer to say: Commerce would be great, Going further into Tradition is better. For more relaxed Immortal/Deity games, in terms of time pressure to make a move, I am a big fan of Commerce.
WOW T152 Arty - would've loved a full LP on that .. And Paris in range for multiple artillery shots from your own territory - did he wonder spam a bit ?
With this start I don't think t152 Arty is that crazy. I think I've seen Moriarte do similar from much worse starts. Getting to Arty quickly is mostly based on what happens in t50 -> t100, and my t100 is very similar to other positions here -- other than Edu vs. Machinery. No RAs. Just a Liberty Acad + a GS Bulb + Oxford. Caravans add roughly 10% to my total beakers from t30 onwards. Liberty is competitive with Tradition, even for building, if the land is rich enough. This is very rich land. With my initial cities I have:
- 5 dyes
- 3 salt
- 2 sugar
- 1 marble
- 1 truffle
- numerous horses (10 maybe?).
- 6 iron
- 1 spice (citadel bombed from Valletta)
In terms of wonders I think Paris has: Pisa, Alhambra, Glib, Hagia Sophia. Not bad, but no happiness.
Trouble with going crazy 5 city in the middle of the map like that is in my experience you get a lot of early DOWs in return . Somehow you managed to keep the peace but I'm not sure that is always an option ..
Yes, well there is only so much we can control in this start. I would much prefer settling safely with my back to the sea, but I don't see that as an option here.
Why does building 5 instead of 3 cities increase DoW likelihood? I only got a "please don't expand in our direction" warning from Pocatello of all people. I guess there were a few "Too many cities" diplo hits, but that is not a strong demerit. As you well know, the early way to avoid war (as much as possible) include:
- No embassies for Nap/Dido. No way. (I think this is especially effective for Dido here).
- Early caravans to the AI. DoFs are very likely to follow. I got them from Siam and America early, possibly because of these.
- Free lunch. Wash asked for an early loan; I am more than happy to comply.
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Bribes. I consider Napoleon to be a 9/10 on the "dangerous" list for early/mid-game DoWs. Only Shaka himself is a 10. So with a greedy opening the best option is to keep Nappy busy as early and often as possible. I used my 2nd salt and 2GPT for the first war bribe on t41. That means he was already at war when I placed the last two cities in his face. He is still a DoW threat, but his troops are elsewhere. One advantage of building 5 cities is that losing one is not the end of my game.
I've watched the first hour or so of your, highly enjoyable, LP
Some scattered thoughts, not at all intended to be critical of your excellent play

(Well except for double moving units into the Fog of War very early in the game. But you know better

)
1) I would have absolutely have taken the early gold hit to get Nappy busy, even with the ~12 GPT. You left our favorite pint sized Emperor to his own devices to ~t80. Living dangerously, I say.
2) Washington asked for 87 Gold, why not give it to him for a solid +Diplo modifier? You'll get it right back, anyways

Keeping Washington happy and/or at war is the 2nd most important diplo manoeuvre required for the early game, I think.
3) You attacked Valletta, who was under the Protection of 2-3 civs at the time. Brave man. After double worker stealing this will have a pretty large impact on your diplomatic standings, no? I think it would be better to either
-) declare early if there is no protection and you know beforehand that Valletta is your XP farm
-) find another target. Lhasa, Wellington, and Budapest are possible, if slightly inconvenient options ...
I don't know if avoiding the above would prevent the Siamese DoW, but I think it would reduce the chances of that happening.
4) Probably just a preference, but rather than go for 7 CBs why not 5CBs + a couple Spears? I find melee units with cover promos make XP farming more efficient. A fortified spear in rough terrain will also act much like walls in case of a DoW -- it will buy a little time to get your main army into position.