The ISG report.

[Little Raven]

Well, it's out.

Commentary in a few hours when I've had a chance to read the thing.

 

[betazed]

I wish I had time to read this. So I await your commentary.

OTOH, I doubt it will tell me anything I did not already know.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

CNN article online about it:

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Iraq Study Group's report given to President Bush on Wednesday says the United States needs to change its strategy to tackle the "grave and deteriorating" situation in Iraq.

Failure to halt the crisis could bring severe consequences to Iraq, the broader region and the United States, the bipartisan panel warned in a report handed to Bush at the White House.

Although panel co-chairs James Baker and Lee Hamilton said in an introductory letter to the report there is no "magic formula to solve the problems of Iraq," the report calls for a "diplomatic offensive" and changing the role of U.S. troops from a combat to an advisory role. (View the complete report -- PDF)

"The current approach is not working and the ability of the United States to influence events is diminishing," Hamilton said in presenting the report. "Our ship of state has hit rough waters. It must now chart a new way forward."

The group's co-chair, said, however, that "not all options have been exhausted."

Among the group's most important recommendations: a change in the primary mission of U.S. forces in Iraq that will allow the United States to move forces out responsibly; prompt action by the Iraqi government to achieve milestones, particularly reconciliation; and new diplomatic actions in Iraq and in the region.

Former Secretary of State James Baker and co-chair with Hamilton, said later in the news conference: "We do not recommend a stay-the-course solution. In our opinion, that approach is no longer viable."

The report suggests: "By the first quarter of 2008, subject to unexpected developments in the security situation on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq."

"At that time, U.S. combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units embedded with Iraqi forces, in rapid-reaction and special operations teams and in training, equipping, advising, force protection and search and rescue."

While not recommending a timetable for withdrawal, the report says "the United States must not make an open-ended commitment to keep large numbers of American troops deployed in Iraq."

The report warns of dire consequences, both at home and abroad, if the U.S. fails to take action.

"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized," the report says.

"We will take every proposal seriously, and we will act in a timely fashion," Bush said after receiving the report. (Watch Bush's reaction after receiving Iraq report )

Bush urged Congress to take the group's proposals seriously and work with the administration to find "common ground" on Iraq policy.

"The country is tired of pure political bickering," Bush said.

White House spokesman Tony Snow said the report contained 79 recommendations, but generally supported the administration's goals to leave Iraq capable of defending and governing itself. (Watch what the report recommends )

The report also prods the administration to launch a new diplomatic initiative to solve the Israel-Palestinian conflict.

It contends the United States "cannot achieve its goals in the Mideast" unless it embarks on a "renewed and sustained commitment to a comprehensive peace plan on all fronts."

As part of this initiative, the panel calls for direct talks between the United States and Iran, as well as Syria, a move the Bush administration has repeatedly resisted.

Although the president has said his goal is to help form an Iraqi government that can sustain and defend itself, the study group contends that cannot be achieved without serious help from other nations in the Mideast.

"Every country has an interest in avoiding a chaotic Iraq, including all of Iraq's neighbors," the report says.

"Iraq's neighbors and key states in and outside the region should form a support group" to help Iraq achieve long-term security and political reconciliation -- "neither of which it can sustain on its own," the report says, referring to the shaky government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

The report says al-Maliki's government needs to show "substantial progress ... on national reconciliation, security and governance" or face a reduction in "political, military, or economic support" from Washington.

The study group urges bipartisan cooperation in Washington to enable success.

"What we recommend demands a tremendous amount of political will and cooperation between the executive and legislative branches of the U.S. government," the report says. "Success depends on unity of the American people at a time of political polarization."

The report concludes: "Foreign policy is doomed to failure -- as is any action in Iraq -- if not supported by broad, sustained consensus."

 

[Little Raven]

Ok, we’ll start with the executive summary. I’m going to crunch each section as best I can into a sentence or two, then editorialize. Your mileage may vary.

• Letter from Co-Chiars:
  • There is no magic bullet, and whatever we do manage to come up with will require inspired leadership, skillful execution at all levels, and a united American public willing to work together to make the necessary sacrifices. Go troops.
  • We’re doomed.
• Intro:
  • The situation in Iraq is very complicated, but there is one common theme. It’s all very, very bad, and getting worse. If we don’t change now, we’re screwed.
  • And in other news, water is, in fact, wet.
• External Approach:
  • Countries around Iraq are not being very helpful. If Iraq is to succeed, we need Iran and Syria to play nice, or at least nicer. To this end, the Palestinian issue must be dealt with.
  • The Palestinian issue does have to be dealt with, because it’s poisoning the whole region, but I don’t think that alone is going to shake Iran. (it would go farther with Syria)
• Internal Approach:
  • The Malaki government sucks. We need them to suck less. To this end, we need more infrastructure, better budgeting, less corruption, more stability, and above all, more and better Iraqi troops, with fewer American troops, and those American troops that remain assuming a supporting, rather than direct combat role.
  • Also, ponies. Everyone loves ponies.
    
    Ok, that was a little unfair. They do have some good thoughts in this section, namely, that we must avoid at all costs giving the Iraqi government the impression that we will bail them out no matter what. But we’ve been working on most of these things since day one, and so far our results haven’t been encouraging. I’m skeptical that we’re going to see turnaround in any department, much less all of them, before we run out of time.
• Conclusion:
  • We’re really not as bad as the press has made us out to be. We don’t want to quit, we want to ‘move forward.’ This is going to be really tough, but if we play all our cards right, we might still have a chance.
  • We’re doomed. Again.

More to come as time allows....

 

[Mark1031]

"If the situation continues to deteriorate, the consequences could be severe. A slide toward chaos could trigger the collapse of Iraq's government and a humanitarian catastrophe. Neighboring countries could intervene. Sunni-Shia clashes could spread. Al Qaeda could win a propaganda victory and expand its base of operations. The global standing of the United States could be diminished. Americans could become more polarized,"

This IS going to happen. Negotiation and changes in tactics will not stop it. We can manage its pace and should try I suppose but in the end I fear it will be the same.

 

[betazed]

We’re doomed....
And in other news, water is, in fact, wet....
The Palestinian issue does have to be dealt with, because it’s poisoning the whole region, but I don’t think that alone is going to shake Iran. (it would go farther with Syria)...
Also, ponies. Everyone loves ponies. ...
We’re doomed. Again....

Excellent. I am still waiting for something I did not know...

I especially love the last line of the second last paragraph of the executive summary...

The dynamics of the region are as important to Iraq as events within Iraq.

Duh! Should i laugh or cry? Well, At least they figured that out.

 

[JohnRM]

When the whole point of the Iraq Surrender Group is to find a way out of Iraq, I don't need to read any report they put out.

Or, as I said in another forum.

Well, as Rush says, this group is all about forming a consensus and its only credibility comes not from its experience or actual study, but from being labeled a 'bi-partisan' effort. They are trying to unite the country in surrendering the war in Iraq. That is all.

 

[Desmond Hawkins]

When the whole point of the Iraq Surrender Group is to find a way out of Iraq, I don't need to read any report they put out.

Or, as I said in another forum.

It may seem noble to go down with a sinking ship, but living to see another day is better.

 

[JollyRoger]

When the whole point of the Iraq Surrender Group is to find a way out of Iraq, I don't need to read any report they put out.

Iraqi SURRENDER Group? I wonder what that says about Bush since he selected his new Secretary of Defense from that group?

 

[MobBoss]

This IS going to happen. Negotiation and changes in tactics will not stop it. We can manage its pace and should try I suppose but in the end I fear it will be the same.

Thank you Miss Cleo.

Me, I prefer to look at it in a more positive light. We recognize the points made, adjust and carry forward to finish the job.

 

[JollyRoger]

Thank you Miss Cleo.

Me, I prefer to look at it in a more positive light. We recognize the points made, adjust and carry forward to finish the job.

Saddam toppled - check
WMD found - check (according to Santorum)
Constitution written - check
Elections held - check

What part of the job is left to do?

 

[MobBoss]

Saddam toppled - check
WMD found - check (according to Santorum)
Constitution written - check
Elections held - check

What part of the job is left to do?

That would be:

Iraq able to defend itself? - unchecked.
Religous violence quelled? - unchecked.

 

[El_Machinae]

That would be:

Iraq able to defend itself? - unchecked.
Religous violence quelled? - unchecked.

I agree with your two points.
But do you have the least hope that the religious violence can ever be quelled? I can't even imagine a game-plan.

 

[Xanikk999]

That would be:

Iraq able to defend itself? - unchecked.
Religous violence quelled? - unchecked.

First one you have a point.

But i dont think we have any control over the second one.

Violence brings more violence in retaliation.

 

[JollyRoger]

That would be:

Iraq able to defend itself? - unchecked.
Religous violence quelled? - unchecked.

And they will remain unchecked when we leave years from now after spending billions of more dollars and thousands of more lives. It's time to end the qWagmire.

 

[Mark1031]

Thank you Miss Cleo.

Me, I prefer to look at it in a more positive light. We recognize the points made, adjust and carry forward to finish the job.

I may not be Miss Cleo but I was right on the invasion causing:

civil war.
no WMD.
greatly strengthened Iran.

I was right as were many leftys. What have you rightys been right on vis a vie Iraq?

 

[Little Raven]

I was right as were many leftys. What have you rightys been right on vis a vie Iraq?

They are correct when they say that the costs of losing Iraq will be very, very high.

 

[skadistic]

You know what ISG is missing? A military man with recent expierience. A millitary expert or a regional expert. Seams like its missing alot.

 

[MobBoss]

I may not be Miss Cleo but I was right on the invasion causing:

civil war.
no WMD.
greatly strengthened Iran.

I was right as were many leftys. What have you rightys been right on vis a vie Iraq?

I disagree that Iraq is in fact in civil war. Civil unrest, of course.

I happen to think that WMD was indeed found in Iraq via the 500+ chemical shells found since the war and the radioactive materials we recovered.

I also dont think Iraq has greatly strengthed Iran....greatly emboldened maybe, strenghtened? No.

I disagree you were right and its going to take more than just you saying so to prove it.

 

[jameson]

From the executive summary, the recommendations are supposed to offer a new way forward for the United States in Iraq and the region. It includes an assessment of the political situation in Iraq and the Iraqi leadership. It does not include an assessment of the political situation in the United States and the American political leadership.

This is a mistake.

The 'United States' does not carry out American policy in Iraq. The Bush Administration does. And they started the war under pretenses that turned out to be false. They did not send in enough troops to pacify the country and maintain order and security. They went into this war of choice with the army they had and not the one they needed to have. They did not prepare for a postwar occupation. They disbanded the Iraqi army and thus put hundreds of thousands of angry men with guns on the streets. They saw Iraqi reconstruction as an excuse to hand out no-bid contracts to politically connected American firms instead of Iraqi ones. They allowed the CPA to function as a patronage machine. Abu Ghraib happened and they blamed it on some underlings. They consistently defy reality in their public statements.

I could go on, but you get the point.

The ISG report is just so much wankery as long as it does not acknowledge the need for a change in the American leadership.