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The Sword of Osman

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession Games' started by Cam_H, Apr 6, 2011.

  1. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    I'm sure that 'somewhere' there's a Warlords analysis of the leaders, however for an excellent guide for at least patch 3.13 (not the latest) of Beyond the Sword, there's Anion's: Civ4 BtS reference EN standard version (PDF) that sets out a lot of the AI leaders' behaviours. I am presuming that many of the characteristics you find in Warlords's leaders is still pretty much the same for BtS.

    The biggest two tip offs for guessing a leader with random personalities enabled is (a.) favourite civic modifiers, and (b.) 'warmonger respect' modifiers in that warmongers tend to be friendly toward other warmongers ...

    ... which worries me a bit in this game, because Alexander is unwilling to Open Borders with us at Cautious which is a characteristic of Tokugawa (warmonger), and the other AIs are pretty friendly toward Alexander in our game, therefore there's a chance that there's some 'warmonger respect' between the AI leaders. As such, they'll tend to build a lot of units, which in turn means that our battles with Egypt and Greece are likely to be pretty intensive. (I could be completely wrong on all of this of course!).

    Back on our battle with Kublai Kahn ...

    You could promote what we've got with City Raider I and go for it, but maybe pulling back the stack for a couple of turns to get the two Axes (one on the move, the other about to be built in Edirne) to help out with the war mightn't be a bad move seeing that I think it's a 50-50 battle at best. I'm happy for you to either; take a shot with what we have, or delay for a few turns and go in with a marginally enlarged force. I do however favour some form of attack on Karakorum ... we really need to grab some :food:-rich cities in light of our cramped and :food:-poor alternatives.

    I'm obviously very happy for you to wait for the views of woopdeedoo and Paradigm Shifter. :)

    Well I'm hoping that this exercise (win or lose ... and really, while I'd like to win I won't be too distraught if things don't unfold as hoped) is helping your (and Ms. W's) play-style. As per my earlier post, what I thought was going to be a bit of a 'walk in the park' is to some extent turning out to be a bit more challenging that at first envisaged (!), so we'll need to be 'on our toes' for a while.
     
  2. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    Thanks, Cam, it's been very enriching up to now - for me, at least!

    I thought I will play tonight, but I'll wait till tomorrow morning - not that I see a lot of other options, but just to avoid the semblance of disrespect to the team spirit at such a crucial point.
     
  3. woopdeedoo

    woopdeedoo Chieftain

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    Well, gentlemen. You all make very nice points and the Julius, Ramesess warmonger point Cam made, is starting to worry me. I'm wondering if we made a mistake in attacking Kublai first instead of Julius or Ram. Alas, too late now and I still rate we keep the war going... We are committed to it now. On the points re temples, I agree. Oracle with priests will pop a GPr real soon so we can possibly grab DR still. My main concern is crushing Romans and Egyptians in the allotted time.

    This is only my second SG, busy with my first in "Math is for the weak!" So I am viewing this as a learning experience more than anything else. My regular gameplay has stagnated and I want to refresh it, hence me being here :D

    So Gents, do the best you can, we will be back at war real soon so let's do what we can to crush the Mongols. On a side note, what about Vassals. Can they capitulate this early in the game? Do we want Kublai as a vassal if he (can) offers?
     
  4. ParadigmShifter

    ParadigmShifter Random Nonsense Generator

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    I'm one for relying on catapults (have we got those yet?) if there's gonna be any war.
     
  5. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    woopdeedoo,

    I'm mindful that you've always liked Egypt or Greece as our first target, but there are a few reasons (rightly or wrongly) why I feel that we needed to take on Mongolia:

    Close Proximity: Many turns can be saved by rushing a close neighbour, and when we do hold cities; distance maintenance is less burdensome. Also, by hitting him first, it reduces the chances of him needing to expand through warfare by attacking us instead.

    Truncated Border: If we were to take on Greece or Egypt, our borders would be long and more difficult to defend. If we take Karakorum for instance, this city is well shielded from other civ's and requires fewer defenders. Mongolia just geographically makes a better 'fit' for our empire in my view.

    Creative: While this is a small reason, trying to cohabitate with a Creative-trait neighbour with their; natural culture per turn, cheap culture-producing Libraries, and cheap culture-producing Theatres typically means a constant struggle to keep outlying resources within our cultural boundaries.

    Popularity: By going after Kublai, we've avoided "-2 You declared war on our friend" with other leaders. It's going to be difficult to maintain good relations with everyone as it is, but at least we've not given them yet another reason to hit us.​

    We can't capitulate anyone until we acquire the Feudalism technology. Maybe when (if???) we get Divine Right, we can consider using it as a big trading chip to secure Feudalism and whatever else we're short on, so we can capitulate rather than conquer completely Egypt and Greece.

    FiveRings,

    In contrast to my earlier comment, 'Plan C' might be to forget Karakorum all together for now if you're pessimistic of our chances, and send the stack to the west or north west and take Tufan and Ning-Hsia instead, and confine Kublai to one city (?). Karakorum would make a fine addition to our empire, but I don't want to push you into attacking it if you think that we're doomed by doing so.

    Paradigm Shifter,

    We have only just discovered Writing, so 'no', we don't have Construction. The game is downloadable from #113 which includes a screen on our technological progress.
     
  6. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    625 BC (t0) - spear out of Besh to Kara
    600 BC (t1) - Ed: axe>spear, dancing with KK's archer that's to the North of Ed
    - Kara: KK increased 3 of chars to 2 (5arch+1settler), closing on it with the two additional axes, spears moved to take away hammers from Kara work area
    575 BC (t2) - Barb Warrior kills himself upon the spear South of Ista (but 1.8/4)q as KK's archer starts to move in direction to Ista, move the wounded spear north towards hill with mine to North of Ista
    550 BC (t3) - Ank: monu>mona
    - Persia: almost all seen, as Alex wants no OB, I kill the wounded warrior in Persia -> +$1/turn
    525 BC (t4) - Kara: KK adds another char, so, the disposition is: 5 arch +3 chars (+ 1 settler) vs 9 axes + 4 spears. Battle started: almost all axes killed, but only 1 archer remains in Kara @ .2/3
    500 BC (t5) - Kara is ours, with a useless LH and a nice worker in it (5t of unhappiness). Worker started [should have started barracks]. All soldiers, except a healthy spear that goes to Turfan to keep watch on the road, heal in Kara (all upgraded to CR, I think we'll need a lot of CRs, and I remember that there is the beloved resource of W by Turf)
    - Ram gets the Pyramides
    - the GLight shines in a FAL
    - research on 80% but I do not change to Theo, as I seem to remember that we need Monarchy (I also find out that MM has Monarchy already)

    475 BC (t6) - it comes upon me to check out of curiosity what we need for Theo, I see that we can directly go for it and decide it was my mistake not to switch right away to it, so I do this now [and while writing the report I start to doubt even this, as there is a chance that Monarchy was researched for sale, anyway, you have scared me, guys, that we won't get the DR in time, so I prefer - rightly or wrongly - to get there fast, and with the fast coming of two temples and priests in Ed, we better be at the end of the Theo, it seems to me], so: Theo at 100% research (16t iirc)
    - Ed: spear>axe
    - Besh: worker>barracks
    - check the Diplo screen: interestingly enough, now only Alex is annoyed with the Khan
    - Ista: missionary>axe
    450 BC (t7) - start to move the healed spears towards Turfan, there are 2 arhers there
    425 BC (t8) - Ed: Judaism
    - Ista: Barb warrior to the South of it
    - KK's archer to the North of Ista disappears further in Sal's lands BUT IT IS LURKING SOMEWHERE AROUND
    - start moving healed axes towards Turfan
    400 BC (t9) - Ed: axe>temple (5t), no use going to the forest and chopping it, as 3t needed to get onto it, workers start road between Ed/Ista and Kara
    - Ista gets an additonal red face (ww). I decide to keep the situ the way it is, as any changes will result in additional turns of Theo research, so it might be better to whip a temple after the axe is ready (in 2t, iirc)
    - Ram finishes the Temple of Art, that's getting very annoying worrisome, so I think: Ram, you look like the next target, boy. BUT:
    - Sal wants ivory. And I say: No, which might be a mistake. He is still cautious, but his towns are already very close to Ista. I think we need to take Turf before changing course, but, as much as I want to finish the Khan - as the horses are still with him, as it seems, we might need the army for Sal very soon.
    375 BC (t10) - Turf: axes arrive at a strike distance at last, but however tempting, I'll finish it here and leave it to PS (I hope, this is kind of balancing my leaving you in anarchy last time, isn't it, PS?!) to deal the blow: 2 archers in Turfan against 3 axes and 3 spears, so, even one more archer comes up, we own Turfan next turn
    - Besh: whips barracks
    - Kara: whips worker
    Below is the save. I have done some screenshots, and I'll fiddle with the tools to try to get them into my next post, hopefully, I'll be able to.
    BOTTOMLINE: we are not that bad, but Ram worldwondering like this, Sal so close, and Kublai still almost as strong as we are, it is a tough and rough going. [I have deleted my reference to KK having horses, as the odds are much less now - after I have realized that the pasture by Kara is for horses.]

    Any comments are more than welcome. Please, also note that I have left only one spear in Kara.
     

    Attached Files:

  7. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    I've had a very quick look, and all is looking very fine! :goodjob:

    I'll analyse it further later, but getting Karakorum alone was a good achievement.
     
  8. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    Thanks, Cam!
    BTW, I have just realized that the "stupid" pasture by Kara looks that way to me as I am the stupid one: we don't have AH, so I can't see the horses that are pastured there, nor the benefits from that. Well, this is the first time I see a pasture w/o the horses, if this counts for a shade of excuse ...
    This , however, means that the Khan may have no more horses, as the "lack" of horses around Kara and Turf made me suspect that he has some around his last (?!) town.
     
  9. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    I'm just trying to do some forecasting on the Divine Right conundrum, which I wish I'd done before my turnset rather than after FiveRings's (more :smoke: on my part) - please feel free to correct any errors you might pick up ...

    We have 39 turns before the 'clock' runs out.​

    We can expect only one Great Prophet

    The Oracle (2:gp: per turn) will get us our first Great Prophet in 25 turns. If Edirne had one Priest running from the Jewish Temple due in 4 turns (+3:gp: per turn), that would cut it back to 13 turns.

    The second Great Prophet would take 40 turns to pop (Oracle + Jewish Priest) after the first (or in 53 turns total), so we can rely only on one Great Prophet pop in time.

    We don't have the food there to run a Buddhist Priest as well, and even then we'd still be unable to get out a second Great Prophet before the 39 turns were up.

    As such, we don't really need to run a Priest in Edirne at all for these purposes, however as noted below, we need to ensure that we get a Great Prophet out of Edirne before Istanbul pops a Great Scientist.

    Therefore, Ankara need not build that Buddhist Missionary for Edirne to get up a Buddhist Temple (at least with regard to this Great Prophet bulbing exercise).​

    Monarchy

    We still need to trade for Monarchy. We know that Ramesses has it (he is willing to trade us Wine), but we can't make any moves until Mansa becomes willing to make the trade or another AI (hopefully Egypt asap) picks up Alphabet.

    We can't therefore make progress on Divine Right (or put our bulb toward it) until we secure Monarchy and/or Alphabet in trades. As such, we can afford to slow-tech the last turns on Theology until then.​

    Cost of Divine Right

    Assuming that we do secure Monarchy relatively soon, Divine Right is 1794:science:. Our Great Prophet 'should' bulb something like 1030:science: (1000:science: + 2 x our population in :science:), leaving us with 770-ish :science: to self research.

    Let's assume we capture Tufan, we might get 60:gold: in plunder, meaning that we can research almost all of Theology in 10-ish turns before we pull the slider back down - however please note 'binary research' proposal later. Meaning we have around 29 turns to acquire 770:science:, or that we need to make on average 27:science: per turn (or equivalent in :gold: that can be redirected into :science: later on). Right now, if we pull back the commerce slider to 'break even' (40% at the moment), we pull in only 18.8:science: per turn.

    If we were to hurry a Library in Istanbul, it would take its 8.8:science: / turn (at 40%) up to 10.8:science:, but also allow for the running of two Scientists (+6:science:), taking Istanbul up to 16.8:science: per turn, and at current rates the empire's haul up to 26.8:science: per turn. Now, there's still some cost in terms of time of getting this Library built and the population back up, so we really need to get cracking on this Library whip.

    The Library build does allow us to do some 'binary research' ... commerce to 0% until the Library is up ... then 100% for a little while (until we get close to completing Theology) ... then back down to 0% until we acquire Monarchy.

    To complicate matters, if we were to run two Scientists in Istanbul, we need to be careful that the city does not pop a Great Scientist (17 turns) before Edirne pops its Great Prophet (currently 25 turns). Therefore, Edirne should run a Jewish Priest to avoid this timing issue.​

    Cottages!

    We also have to bear in mind that Beshbalik, Karakorum, and Istanbul all have cottages available for working and growing, so our empire's overall commerce haul will marginally improve if we do commit to working these cottage tiles.​

    A Proposal

    The way I see it, we need to finish off that Jewish Temple in order to get a Priest running in Edirne. The Priest will pop the 'Divine Right' Great Prophet before Istanbul pops a Great Scientist.

    Istanbul should work quickly to a point where it can whip out a Library, and then work its cottage tiles while rebuilding the population to the happy cap by using the Corn. It can run Scientists when we're in a ':science: phase' (i.e. heading toward completion of Theology, or once we start researching Divine Right).

    Karakorum and Beshbalik likewise need to grow their cottages in order to improve the overall commerce haul of the empire.

    Such is the need for Monarchy now, that we should trade for it at the first opportunity. Ramesses and Mansa both know this technology, so there is 'some' hope that we can trade away (our monopoly tech :() Metal Casting for it before we complete Theology. If I had known that the AI would be so sluggish about Alphabet, I'd have taken the cheaper Monarchy over Metal Casting with The Oracle.

    I would be reasonably speedy in getting most of Theology researched, but I'd not spend any effort in researching other technologies, and we should pull the commerce slider down until we have got Monarchy in a trade. When we have almost all of Theology researched and waiting to acquire Monarchy, just horde cash so we can later run a research deficit to get Divine Right finished before our deadline.​

    Therefore, a PPP for consideration;

    Technology: Continue with Theology, but drop technology rate to 0% until Istanbul completes its Library. Once Library is up, consider boosting the technology rate until we're 'say' one turn from completing Theology, and then back down to 0% until we acquire Monarchy. We need to get Monarchy and/or Alphabet (as a second preference) in a trade, and we almost certainly will need to (reluctantly) trade away Metal Casting to get it. Try to get multiple trades for Metal Casting on the one turn (before the AI can trade it around among itself).

    War: Take Tufan, but I'd consider settling for peace after that. With six cities, much more expansion will start to hurt our commerce rate. Alternately raze Mongolia's last cities if willing to continue the war effort. Personally I'd just finish up the conflict after Tufan.

    Istanbul: Work to a Library whip. Work Cottages and Corn. Run Scientists when appropriate, but avoid a :gp: rate that will beat Edirne's Great Prophet pop.

    Edirne: Complete Jewish Temple and run a Priest. Given this city will be stagnant, it may as well build a Worker.

    Ankara: Buddhist Missionary isn't necessarily required, so consider any number of city improvements; Library :)culture: + :science:) or Forge :)hammers: + :)) seem like reasonable choices to me.

    Mongolian cities: Both Beshbalik and Karakorum should continue to grow their cottages. Both could be a candidate for; Forge > Colossus if we wanted. Karakorum to shoot for a Monument if we don't get natural religious spread for a border pop to get the Pigs. Note that a road should be built to connect these cities to our Ottoman core, so they can get better :traderoute: (with the last of the Egyptian cities).​

    ____


    On a largely unrelated matter, Kubai is back down to just Archers. It seems that Karakorum's Horses were the only ones developed:

    Spoiler :


    Cyrus has (a.) Horse Archers, and (b.) "Enough on hands" ... Alexander may be in a spot of trouble, as he seems to have only Chariots and there's no evidence that he's got Phalanx units available.

    Spoiler :


     
  10. woopdeedoo

    woopdeedoo Chieftain

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    Ouch Cam, you hurteded my brain :)
     
  11. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    Cam, you might be right - by a turn - but we might also be able to get the 2nd GrPr and DR on turn 39 if we continue along the previous reasoning.

    Let's look at the following scenario:
    1. chopping around Ankara brings up the missionary on t5
    2. missionary goes to Ed and founds B on t9 (do we get the spread?!)
    3. Ed starts building B temple on the same turn
    4. a forest in Ed's fat cross is chopped, and a forest in the larger area NW, iirc - and we get 30+15 hammers in Ed (does the wood from the distant chop go to Ed?! Do we get 45 hammers total?! We may have a 2nd distant chop!!)
    5. B temle is built in Ed on t18: [80-(30+15)] / 4 = 9 (turns)
    6. Ed is put on hunger (-1 f) but with two priests, and only -1f as the grass to the NW can be farmed meanwhile
    7. 2d Gr Pr is born on t39 (that's where we depend very much on good counting) = DR

    So:

    # turns / Build-ups / GPPs in Ed / Notes

    0 / - / 50 / (Cam: 25*2)
    4 / J Temple / 58 / -
    5 / B M’nary / 63 / F chop
    9 / B in Ed / 83 /-
    13 / GrPr #1 / 103-100=3 / -
    15 / B Temple / 13 / F+.5*F chops
    39 / GRPr#2 / 205-200=5 / DR

    Meanwhile we ourselves research monarchy, or we get it through trade - if necessary (the latter is anyway indispensable part of your new plan).


    So, for team consideration (after double / triple checking the numbers once again, I am particularly uncertain about the hammers Ed will get from chopping):

    Plan A: we continue with Ankara building the missionary (with the help of chopping starting ASAP), send it to Ed and try Buddhism there, if it happens: we go building the temple starting right away, we go for the second priest.

    Plan B: any glitch that postpones the turn of emergency of Buddhism in Ed, or of the 2nd priest in Ed, or the emergence of the 2nd GrPr in Ed - we change course switching to your new plan.

    Cons: we slightly postpone building in Ankara - by 5 turns at the most, though. We might need to postpone the GrSc in Ista.

    Pros: we are more flexible, and we can revert to the GrSc in Ista if we are late on schedule, we can use Ista for further war prep, and we can trade - the Theo or MC - for the Math-Constr (cats) and either deal with Ram/Alex, or with Sal. We'll be able to eraze the last town of the Khan, too, and pillage around in the meanwhile.
     
  12. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    I do like it! Well done! :)

    In the 'single Great Prophet' proposition that I outlined, there's a big unknown in securing Monarchy. I saw it as a potential risk when I opted to bulb Metal Casting, and it still is some sort of risk that it won't appear in this turnset. As I say, we'd have to horde :gold: until we get Monarchy and Divine Right opens as a tech' option for us.

    In the 'double Great Prophet' proposition that you put, you're right that there's some chance that Buddhism won't spread to Edirne on the first attempt, which as you note could slow us down. I do believe those chops should go into Edirne ... I think there are three Forests that should work; the one directly north, the one in the north east in the BFC, and the one two tiles diagonal to the north west. The good thing about this plan is that we know that both Theology and Monarchy are self-researchable within 39 turns. We'd need to get those Workers moving!
     
  13. ParadigmShifter

    ParadigmShifter Random Nonsense Generator

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    I'll play this set tomorrow chaps and chapess.
     
  14. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    So, we're gonna try to get the Buddha temple->two priests->two Gr Profets in Ed, if W and PS don't prefer the other plan, correct? But before we go to the former plan, please, someone, check the turns of building and moving, as I might have had some wishful thinking!:scan:
     
  15. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    Both plans appear to more-or-less work within a turn or so. :) Both have potential pitfalls, but I'm not precious about going for (a.) Great Prophet bulb > research remainder of Divine Right versus (b.) two carefully timed Great Prophet bulbs.
     
  16. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    As W hasn't got her brains back in good shape yet after Cam's overhaul, it seems, we'll get, I guess, what PS does - or does not.:D
     
  17. ParadigmShifter

    ParadigmShifter Random Nonsense Generator

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    PS went for 8 cans of 5% lager for £6 again.

    We have another day to debate. I'm thinking the 2GP route is better though.
     
  18. woopdeedoo

    woopdeedoo Chieftain

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    Since I am no longer unable to comprehend (read Easter weekend hangover), I think the PPP proposed by Cam looks good. This is my "official" go for it :)
     
  19. Cam_H

    Cam_H Chieftain

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    If we go the two Great Prophet route, then 'my' pre-play plan will need to be modified to accommodate the proposal set out by FiveRings in #131. :)

    And everyone ... stop 'hitting the bottle' for goodness sake! :lol:
     
  20. FiveRings

    FiveRings Chieftain

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    Or getting hit by it or them...

    Cam, if you could get an updated version of the PPP, we all, and I for sure, will be most appreciative! I am learning a lot from you :crazyeye:, thank you so much!:goodjob:

    Five minor comments:
    1. The workers on the hill between Kara and Ed/Ista on the last save are there to help finish the roading - shouldn't take more than a turn, and we don't seem in any hurry to move them to any other place: they can't reach the forests around Ankara in time to speed up the chopping there, and seem to have enough time to get to Ed's forests and pre-chop for the B temple, if needed.
    2. Maybe the course to take regarding the Khan will be clearer when we see the terrain by his last settlements. If there are no horses there, we might go for an early ceasefire. I did hope we'll get something substantial from him techwise, well, even something not that substantial, but still helpful, so maybe strangling him and pillageing till we/he get(s) the Alpha?
    3. We can still run the scientist in Ista - with some caution - while we breed the 2nd GrPr in Ed, if we decide so.
    4. Cam, can you share your initial thinking about how we'll get Engineering soon enough to have good chances of building the Hague Sophia, please? Can we help ourselves thru trading to Engineering, and do we have to abstain from trading the Theo for Construction to get cats in order to keep high our chances for trades on the path to Engineering?
    5. If Cam is right about the high odds of having a bunch of warmongers around, and about Alex being highest on the list for Tokugava personality, then, it seems: (a) we might get some respect from our neighbours for our military achievements (build barracks in Ista before anything else, continue with the war effort), and (b) we might get attacked by Alex if he's not engaged by Persia (keep an eye, maybe even give Persia some ivory?!)

    Well, guys, I am in this game to learn, so - although I do consider going along the 2-GrPr-in-Ed scenario to have considerable advantages as compared to completely changing course - I don't mind going along the tech trading way: it seems the latter might have even a bigger potential for learning...
     

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