US Election Results Progress Thread:

[Pangur Bán]

Alot of the talk here is amazingly premature. I mean, the polls haven't even closed and a couple of you are predicting election landslides.

 

[cgannon64]

Yeah, on the east coast they still have an hour, right? And on the west its what, four?

 

[Speedo]

Well, it's interesting enough that I'm going to sacrifice sleep to see what happens. Personally, I'm predicting an electoral tie or Bush by a small margin (meaning lawsuits and 4 more years of whining Dems, oh well).

 

[CivCube]

Where do you get that?

I, uh, live here. That's how it has happened the last few elections. Maybe I'm just spouting off random nonsense. All pre-election polls show a dead heat between Daschle and Thune so far.

 

[h4ppy]

Heh, dethrowning Daschle. Would he get a cabinet seat if kerry wins?

 

[Yom]

Same site:

Kerry Leads:
Florida: 50/49
Ohio: 50/49
Michigan: 51/47
Pennsylvania: 54/45
Iowa: 50/48
Wisconsin: 51/46
Minnesota: 57/42

If these polls are reliable, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are safely democratic. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are very close, but if this poll is accurate, Kerry would only have to win either Florida or Ohio in order to win the election. Things are looking up, let's up they stay that way .

 

[Perfection]

I, uh, live here. .

Is it someting you noticed, news media, parents what's your source?

That's how it has happened the last few elections. Maybe I'm just spouting off random nonsense. All pre-election polls show a dead heat between Daschle and Thune so far.

Well, I'm still confused to why is that and if it's only true for South Dakota or if your generalization works for all rural states.

 

[Boleslav]

MSN Slate is also publishing exit polls. It says they are meaningless at this stage in the game, (I agree) but nonetheless here they are:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

Florida
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Ohio
Kerry 50
Bush 49

Pennsylvania
Kerry 54
Bush 45

Wisconsin
Kerry 51
Bush 46

Michigan
Kerry 51
Bush 47

Minnesota
Kerry 58
Bush 40

Nevada
Kerry 48
Bush 50

New Mexico
Kerry 50
Bush 48

North Carolina
Kerry 49
Bush 51

Colorado
Kerry 46
Bush 53

 

[GenMarshall]

I think it's the young and minority vote that's helping Kerry. What has Bush done for minorities? not a darn thing.

I dont think Bush had done anything for the Generation Ys.

 

[Yom]

Zogby has already called the election! They're saying it will be a 311-213 Kerry win with 2 States (14 EVs) too close to call.

I'm guessing this is based on the exit polls and their own polls showing low approval ratings in battleground states for Bush (see www.electoral-vote.com).

Colorado (9 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) are the two states that are too close.

If this is true, everyone's going to look to them from now on for polling (they were right about 2000, and if they can call it this early when everyone else is scratching their heads, it's either luck or genius).

Edit: And they say Bush will win the popular vote 49.4% to 49.1% .

 

[sourboy]

1st poll closing is 5pm EST. Until then, results are merely speculation.

Is anyone going to give a visual as the results are finalized, so as to show election results by state?

 

[Mark1031]

Looks like a lot of brush clearing in Bush's future

 

[Yom]

1st poll closing is 5pm EST. Until then, results are merely speculation.

Is anyone going to give a visual as the results are finalized, so as to show election results by state?

The polls close at 7 pm, I thought. Either way, it's 5:45 here on the east coast.

 

[CivCube]

Is it someting you noticed, news media, parents what's your source?

I have watched the past few elections from all of the above.

Well, I'm still confused to why is that and if it's only true for South Dakota or if your generalization works for all rural states.

Even for Tim Johnson's Senate race (the closest in SD history), he still managed to maintain a lead on Thune.

Actually, I should have been more clear. It has only been a trend that I have noticed the past couple of years in this state. Who knows, Daschle still has a good chance. I'm being stupid.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Heh, dethrowning Daschle. Would he get a cabinet seat if kerry wins?

Very likely. Look at Aschcroft in 2000, for instance.

 

[Chieftess]

MSN Slate is also publishing exit polls. It says they are meaningless at this stage in the game, (I agree) but nonetheless here they are:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

I'd agree too.

Reasoning? The elderly tends to vote more in the morning/afternoon, and it's the working families that tend to vote in the afternoon. Atleast from what I've noticed.

 

[Perfection]

I have watched the past few elections from all of the above.

Even for Tim Johnson's Senate race (the closest in SD history), he still managed to maintain a lead on Thune.

Actually, I should have been more clear. It has only been a trend that I have noticed the past couple of years in this state. Who knows, Daschle still has a good chance. I'm being stupid.

So you observed the trend, while I'm not going to discount it. I must remind you that you noticing it is absolutly no substitute for hard statistics. You're not being stupid, the brain has a remarkable ability to see patterns, unfortunatly it sometimes sees ones when there is none. And remember, you've also got to make comparisons to other states, and I'm guessing comebacks are fairly rare in all states (though I have no support for that other then intuition).

 

[Pangur Bán]

Well, just watched Newsnight. The Republican pollster Frank Luntz says that things look very good for Kerry, meanwhile the mood of the Democrats at their HQ is "boyant" while it isn't at the GOP HQ.

I find that very interesting. Many of the commentators are already assuming that Kerry has won., with merely a tokenry "but we must be cautious after 2000".

Still, the polls haven't closed, and it is very valid to remember what happened in 2000!

 

[luiz]

According to Zogby, Bush won the popular vote and lost, by far, in the Electoral College.

Ironich, huh?

If that is indeed the case, my guess is that in the short future there will be many democrats celebrating the "excellent electoral college system", and many republicans calling for its end.

And I can only wonder if Michael Moore will say that Bush is the rightful president, just like he said that Gore was.

 

[Yom]

Same website, but apparently the source of their polls was 6 different media groups, so the results might not be partisan.

They have Kerry up 51-48 nationally.

Here are the third polls:

Confirmed:

Florida: 50/49 - KERRY
Ohio: 50/49 - KERRY
Michigan: 51/47 - KERRY
Pennsylvania: 54/45 - KERRY
Wisconsin: 51/46- KERRY
Minnesota: 58/40 - KERRY
New Mexico: 50/48 - KERRY
Colorado: 46/53 - BUSH
North Carolina: 49/51 - BUSH

Unconfirmed:

IA: 50/48 - KERRY
NH: 58/41 - KERRY
ME: 55/44 - KERRY
NV: 48/49 - BUSH
AR: 45/54 - BUSH

The latest exit poll in a highly contested Senate race puts Sen. Tom Daschle (D) behind Republican challenger John Thune back three points. Full numbers are not yet available.

Edit: Now I'm a little confused. Maybe these are the final polls?

Final exit polls show Kerry ahead in: Pennsylvania 53-46, Fla. 51-49, Ohio 51-49, New Mexico 50-49, Minnesota 54-44, Michigan 51-47, Wisconsin 52-47; Tied in Iowa; Behind in North Carolina 48-52, Missouri 46-54, Alaska 47-53, Colo. 48-51, and Arizona 45-55

He's surprisingly close in Alaska, and the first quotation shows him just behind 2 points in North Carolina!