My musings on the midterms.
Democrats Senate pick ups
Best Chances
Pennsylvania = This was looking like the ace in the hole for the Democrats for a while. The Republicans after a contentious primary selected carpetbagger and peddler of questionable products Dr Oz, a weak candidate. However Fetterman's stroke may ultimately cost the Democrats the senate. This is at least partly as US Americans struggle to tell the difference between a cognitive impairment, auditory processing disorder, and speech disfluency (only the former should disqualify a candidate, and Fetterman does not have that). Still I do get why voters may be hesitant to vote for Fetterman after his debate performance. Still this is the Dems best chance of a senate pick up, they are (just) up in the polls, and did win the state in 2020.
Possible, but not likely Chances
Wisconsin = Ron Johnson is such a lucky guy, his seat always seems to come up in red wave years, even though he is a terrible candidate. Apparently the lead Barnes had was eaten away by a lot of racist fear mongering adverts by the Republicans. It is still close in the polls, and the Dems did win the state in 2020. However considering that the Wisconsin polls seem to be the worst at underestimating Republican support of any state, Barnes really needed to be up in the polls to have a decent chance.
North Carolina = The Dems ultimate state for being close, but no cigar. Beasley has been polling much better then expected. However Budd is a solid candidate as well, and unless midterms are a lot more friendly for Dems then expected, I'm not holding out too much hope for this one.
Ohio = Another state like North Carolina where the Dems were polling much better than expected. Vance is another poor choice of Republican candidates, while Ryan is about a safe Dem choice. However Trump carried the state by 7 points, so even allowing for Vance being a weak choice, unless this midterm turns out more 2018 than 2010, it's not looking too likely for the Dems.
Long shots, only if the polling is very wrong
Florida = Florida used to be the ultimate swing state, but it seems to be swinging right recently. Val Demmings is a good choice for the Dems, however Rubio is a strong incumbent, who might survive even in a blue wave year. New voter registration has been favoring Republicans, with there now being more registered Republicans than Democrats for the first time (though a rise in independents is also a possible factor in this). In 2018 the Democrats came within a hair width of winning the senate seat, this year, well....
Iowa = For a third of the state's history Chuck Grassley has been the senate. Why they keep voting for this relic is beyond me. However Iowa is another purple state turning increasingly red. Franken is another solid Democrat candidate, but the only thing which could likely unseat Grassley appears to be the Grim Reaper.
Utah = This isn't really a Democrat pick up even if it happened, as McMullins would likely caucus with the Republicans. He should do well, thanks to being backed by Democrats, independents and never Trumper types. In a less solidly Republican state such as Ohio this alliance might be enough, in Utah though, unlikely.
Republicans Senate pick ups
Best Chances
Nevada = Nevada has for Republicans been what North Carolina has been for Democrats; the state where they always come close but also nearly always lose. However the Democrats margin of victory has been getting ever narrower, they have been losing support amongst Latinos, which is especially damaging in states like Nevada, and unlike in Georgia and Arizona, they don't have a big name candidate either. Polling is incredibly close, though Nevada is one of the few states which tends to underestimate Democrats support. Expect this to be incredibly close.
Georgia = This state has very few independents, which goes some way to explain how the scandal ridden incredibly weak Republican candidate Hershel Walker is somehow ahead of one of the Democrats best senators in Warnock. Polling has Walker ahead by the narrowest of margins, and the polling in Georgia has a history of being accurate, so like Nevada expect this to be incredibly close.
Possible, but not likely Chances
Arizona = Considering how narrowly the Dems won the state in 2020, and considering what a good environment for Republicans these midterms are, the fact that Masters has consistently been trailing in the polling really tells you all you need to know about how weak a candidate Masters is and how strong a candidate Kelly is. It looked a lost cause for the Republicans for a long time, but has been narrowing up, so may not be a lost cause after all. I expect Kelly to win, but will not be at all surprised if Masters triumphs.
New Hampshire = Yet another example of the Republicans making things harder for themselves by nominating a hard right election denying conspiracist theorist in Bolduc (with an assist for the Democrats who have been controversially trying to elevate some of these crazy candidates). Bolduc was polling so badly Republicans gave up on this race for a while, but when the national environment started going back towards the Republicans they became interested again. Hassan has a lead, but within the margin of error, in a state which is more purple then blue. One to watch.
Long shots, only if the polling is very wrong
Colorado = Colorado is an increasingly tough task for Republicans, but they have chosen wisely with John O’Dea a moderate, who supports abortion access and immigration reforms, and said he would actively campaign against former President Donald Trump. Donald Trump once again showing how he cares more about himself than the Republican party has campaigned against O’Dea after O’Dea criticized him. Unlike figures like Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden who understand candidates may distance themselves from them to improve their electability, Trump has such thin skin he just can’t let any criticism slide. If there was any justice O’Dea would win, and the awful Lauren Boebert will lose in Colorado tomorrow. If tomorrow night turns into a red wedding for Democrats then Colorado flipping will be a possibility.
Washington = I honestly don’t know much about this race. But at least according to 538 Republicans have an outside chance of flipping it.
Democrats Governor pick ups
Best Chances
Massachusetts = Another case of Trump shooting his party in the foot. He campaigned against the popular Charlie Baker who dared to criticize him, even though Baker is the only possible Republican who could win in very blue Massachusetts. This has now become an almost certain Democrat flip.
Maryland = Another almost certain Democrat pick up. Larry Hogan was term limit. Trump and the Democrats conspired to ensure a completely unelectable Qanon supporting Dan Cox was put forward over the more electable Kelly Schulz. It will take close to a miracle for this governorship to not flip.
Possible, but not likely Chances
Arizona = Sadly the utter nut job that is Keri Lake will likely win. Other then Tudor Dixon winning, this is the only other governor race where I will genuinely be bummed out if the Republicans win. Her policies and conspiracies are terrible, however she is much more of a ‘personality’ then Katie Hobbs. Also Hobbs made a very questionable decision refusing to debate Lake, she could have highlighted what a nutter butter Lake is. Lake has held a consistent albeit narrow lead in the polls. Lake is favorite, though not as much as she might think (Lake declared the race was over when on Fox News while a Fox News poll is the background showed the race as tied)!
Long shots, only if the polling is very wrong
Georgia = This race should have been closer. However Kemp seems to have become increasingly invincible, even comfortably winning his primary even after Trump had made him his second biggest target to be primaried. Trump even mentioned he would back Stacy Abrams over him. Stacy Abram ran a very good campaign in 2018 coming close to beating him, and she was key to the Democrats winning the two Georgia senate seats in 2020, however her 2022 campaign has never seemingly gotten into second gear.
Oklahoma = This race seems to have come out of nowhere. In deep red Oklahoma a Democrat should never stand a chance, especially in a potential red wave year. Joy Hofmeister has actually been leading in some polls, but most people refuse to even countenance the idea of Oklahoma flipping. It must be said things are a little more complex. Joy Hofmeister is a very nominal Democrat, and she changed parties primarily as she knew she had no chance of beating Stitt in the primaries. Stitt also alienated the native American voters related to a lawsuit he launched, which in Oklahoma is not a great idea where they make up 10% of the population. Ultimately this is still a longshot, but the fact that the Republicans have had to reassign time and money to ensuring Stitt wins in Oklahoma of all place is mildly comical.
Texas = This one makes me sad as I have always been a fan of Beto O’Rourke, and Abbot sucks! However truth be told other than his great senate run in 2018, his other campaign runs have failed to catch fire. This was always going to be a tough challenge for him to win in the current environment in a state which is still not fully purple yet, I just wish he could be looking more competitive in the polling then he currently is.
Florida = The fact that 538 gives the Democrats winning the governorship in Florida no better odds than Wyoming is just mad. Yes DeSantis is a very popular candidate (and potential future president, ug!), yes Crist is a very underwhelming candidate, yes Florida does appear to be trending right, but still it is Florida, this should be competitive!
Republican Governor pick ups
Best Chances
Nevada = Polling has been tight, but has shown a consistent narrow lead for Lombardo.
Wisconsin = Evers and Michels are pretty much neck and neck. However being Wisconsin where as mentioned previously polling tends to underestimate Republican support significantly, Evers should be sweating a lot.
Possible, but not likely Chances
Oregon = Current governor Kate Brown is apparently deeply unpopular in Oregon, and the stink from her as well as the presence of third party candidate (and former Democrat) Betsy Johnson is threatening to sink the Democrats in normally relatively safe blue Oregon.
Kansas = Kelly is a relatively popular figure in fairly red Kansas. This personal popularity might be enough to keep her afloat, in what is shaping up to be a bad year for Democrats. She probably wishes though that the Kansas Abortion referendum was on the ballot now rather then having been in the summer as that might have propelled her over the finish line.
New Mexico = Though one of the most blue of the southwestern states, the governorship is within possible reach for the GOP.
Michigan = The GOP seemed determined to lose what should have been a very winnable election for them. The early GOP front runner was disqualified for voting irregularities in their nomination. Then another possible frontrunner ran into legal trouble related to being at the January 6th insurrection. In the end they went with Tudor Dixon an election denying, no abortion exceptions, media personality. She has been consistently behind in polls, but they have narrowed up in the last few weeks, and in purple Michigan she still has a shot.
Long shots, only if the polling is very wrong
Maine = I haven’t heard much talk about this election, but it involves an election denier in Paul LePage running in light blue Maine, so not likely but could happen in the right environment.
Minnesota = Jenson hasn’t been polling especially well, but Minnesota elections tend to be moderately competitive, and the midwest tends to underrepresent Republicans in polling, so worth keeping an eye on.
New York = Republicans have been getting pretty excited about this race. The possibility of flipping deep blue New York on election night could be the cherry on top for them. The stink of Andrew Cuomo still seems to be lingering in New York and hurting Hochul. Some polls have actually shown Zeldin tied or even with a narrow lead, but other polls have shown Hochul with comfortable double digit leads so it is hard to know what to think.
Pennsylvania = This is a surprisingly uncompetitive race. In the most purple state in the USA, you would expect Mastriano and Shapiro to be neck and neck. But the far right Mastriano is clearly not connecting with voters. Pennsylvania polling can be pretty bad at underrepresenting the Republicans, but it would take a very big polling error for Mastriano to win.
House
Not worth talking about. Thanks to gerrymandering the Democrats would lose it even in an average year. To hold on they would have to overperform their 2020 performance, and we all know that is incredibly unlikely based on the current electoral environment we are in.
Positives for Democrats
Every election race that has occurred since Roe vs Wade was overturned they have over performed in.
I read somewhere that something like 40-50% of polls being done are by partisan Republican organizations, so they might be overrepresenting how strong the Republicans actually are.
Polling in the last midterms was actually pretty accurate and even mildly underestimated support for the Democrats.
Early voting has favored the Democrats, and at a rate not far below 2018.
Early voting turnout has been high, and Democrats tend to do better in years with high voter turnout.
Positives for Republicans
The polls are the polling trends all favor them.
Incumbent parties always do badly in the midterms.
Democrat support generally seems to drop off more sharply in midterms then Republicans does.
Biden’s approval ratings are very poor, generally poor presidential approval ratings mean poor midterm rates.
Polls have generally underrepresented Republican support, especially in the last decade or so.