We need to discuss the euro

I'm not 100% sure Medicare is a transfer payment system. Maybe on the fringes, as rural towns die. But not between metro centres so much


Rural areas are per-capita poorer than metro areas. And older. So they are more dependent on federal funds. It's not a perfect correlation, because there are many other factors in play.

give-take-small-final.png


But there are only a couple of states where the majority of the population is outside of major metropolitan areas which pay more in federal taxes than they get back in federal spending.
 
Because of this countries are forced into endless austerity, that will in the end make all countries with alot of debt, or without any welfare state to speak of.
They make their own debt. Their own homegrown, idiotic socialist politicians see to that.

They think they can get away with it because they believe the Germans will bail them out.

It's insane, and unfair to the Germans, who are repeatedly subjected to comparisons to Nazis. If the rest of Europe can't get it's act together, they deserve to be economically conquered by Germany. It's not like the Germans are even trying to achieve this; it's a consequence of being nice enough to bail them out the first, second, and possibly even the third time.
 
They make their own debt. Their own homegrown, idiotic socialist politicians see to that.

They think they can get away with it because they believe the Germans will bail them out.

It's insane, and unfair to the Germans, who are repeatedly subjected to comparisons to Nazis. If the rest of Europe can't get it's act together, they deserve to be economically conquered by Germany. It's not like the Germans are even trying to achieve this; it's a consequence of being nice enough to bail them out the first, second, and possibly even the third time.


Don't forget the responsibility of the predatory German banks, who caused the problem in the first place by lending to a known credit risk. The Greek banks wouldn't lend to the Greek government, only the German banks were that irresponsible. And then you add in the irresponsible European Central Bank, controlled by the irresponsible Germans, who made the whole economic crisis worse.
 
They make their own debt. Their own homegrown, idiotic socialist politicians see to that.

They think they can get away with it because they believe the Germans will bail them out.

It's insane, and unfair to the Germans, who are repeatedly subjected to comparisons to Nazis. If the rest of Europe can't get it's act together, they deserve to be economically conquered by Germany. It's not like the Germans are even trying to achieve this; it's a consequence of being nice enough to bail them out the first, second, and possibly even the third time.

this is not only about Greece, but all other countries in the Euro except Germany. All eurozone countries is forced into one economic model designed for Germany
 
Don't forget the responsibility of the predatory German banks, who caused the problem in the first place by lending to a known credit risk. The Greek banks wouldn't lend to the Greek government, only the German banks were that irresponsible. And then you add in the irresponsible European Central Bank, controlled by the irresponsible Germans, who made the whole economic crisis worse.

It wasn't only the German banks. As far as I read the major French banks (Credit Agricole...) had an even greater share of the Greek debt than the German banks .
 
this is not only about Greece, but all other countries in the Euro except Germany. All eurozone countries is forced into one economic model designed for Germany

"Forced into one economic model designed for Germany"? No, that is not even close to being an accurate statement. Why? Because there is not a single nation in the EU that was forced into the Eurozone against its will. I asked this question in the thread about Greece and not a single person was able to give a satisfactory answer to it, so I'll ask it again: If the EU is so terrible and economically oppressive, then why were all you smaller European nations so anxious to join? I mean, it seems quite stupid to join an organization you think is disadvantageous to your nation, no?
 
"If Greek lending is so terrible and economically destructive, then why were all you larger European nations so anxious to join? I mean, it seems quite stupid to join an agreement you think is disadvantageous to your nation, no?"
 
"If Greek lending is so terrible and economically destructive, then why were all you larger European nations so anxious to join? I mean, it seems quite stupid to join an agreement you think is disadvantageous to your nation, no?"

So we're still not going to answer my question? Got it.
 
The biggest problem with the euro, as I see it, is that it eliminates the balancing mechanisms that act to reduce trade and budget deficits without much recycling of surpluses (either as investment or as transfer payments) from surplus countries to deficit countries. It also chains countries to the same monetary policy, preventing anyone from deliberately stimulating inflation (as the Icelanders did) to escape from a banking crisis.

If the Greeks still had the drachma, nothing like this would have occurred. The large trade deficit would have resulted in a devalued drachma that would have driven up the drachma cost of imports while driving down the cost of Greek exports and tourism. The budget deficit and resulting debt would have caused interest rates on government debt to remain high and prevented the spending spree that resulted from the inappropriately low rates in 2001-9. And the excessive spending would have stimulated inflation to a much greater extent, reducing the debt burden.

As it is, everyone's hands are tied and none of the usual mechanisms to get out of debt crises (default, devaluation, inflation) are open to the Greeks and the rest of southern Europe more generally. The reason for the insistence on austerity isn't just macroeconomic stupidity, it's that the only option available while keeping everyone in the Eurozone is internal devaluation by deliberately triggering an austerity-induced depression.

Greece is more or less just a reductio ad absurdum of the problems that face countries like Portugal and Italy, which have high debt for structural reasons and didn't cook the books to get admitted to the euro fraudulently, as well as Spain and Ireland, which were extremely fiscally responsible but suffered a banking crisis that was turned into a public debt crisis. Those countries all appear to be somewhat stable for now after years of pain, but I don't like their chances of getting through another global recession without ending up in a Greece-like situation.

The other problem is that currency unions are really difficult to undo once they are done. Even though most people understand that the euro is causing serious problems in the periphery, nobody has been willing to take the traumatic plunge that exiting the eurozone would entail, including bank failures from the suspension of ECB support and a period of high inflation as the new currency depreciates against the euro. In Greece's case, the plug will eventually have to be pulled although Syriza proved too spineless to do it, so the can has been kicked a little further yet again. In the other countries, it won't even be considered unless another global recession puts them into Greece's position. As for Germany, they'll never leave because a new Deutschmark would rise rapidly against the euro, crushing their trade surplus. It's one thing to realize in retrospect that the euro was a bad idea, and another thing entirely to actually give up and unwind it.
 
Echoing the ideas others have posted above, the idea is "one nation, one currency"--Europe has to either get its act together on the first or stop pretending with the second.
 
"Forced into one economic model designed for Germany"? No, that is not even close to being an accurate statement. Why? Because there is not a single nation in the EU that was forced into the Eurozone against its will. I asked this question in the thread about Greece and not a single person was able to give a satisfactory answer to it, so I'll ask it again: If the EU is so terrible and economically oppressive, then why were all you smaller European nations so anxious to join? I mean, it seems quite stupid to join an organization you think is disadvantageous to your nation, no?
One of the things that's been made obvious by the latest drama is that economics has almost nothing to do with the euro project. For economic reasons, none of the weaker non-euro EU countries should ever want to join it. And yet, as I found here,

In Romania:
According to a eurobarometer poll in April 2015, 68 percent are in favor of introducing the euro (a decrease of 6 percent from 2014), whereas 26 percent are opposed (an increase of 2 percent from 2014).

And in Bulgaria:
According to a eurobarometer poll in April 2015, 55 percent of Bulgarians are in favour of introducing the euro (an increase of 4 percent from 2014), whereas 39 percent are opposed (a decrease of 6 percent from 2014).

Rationally, this is insane. Romania is roughly tied with Turkey in GDP per capita, and Bulgaria is poorer still (around Mexico's level). But yet majorities clearly want to join the euro anyway. I don't know for sure why, but if I had to guess, it has something to do with wanting to be recognized as worthy of inclusion in a rich-country club and not being explicitly second-rate with a non-euro currency anymore. Fortunately, the EU would not allow them in even if they wanted to. I suspect that something like this must have been what possessed the Greeks to cook their books and get admitted to the euro in 2001.

This is the perverse genius of the euro project from the perspective of a surplus country. They can actually get the periphery to agree to join completely voluntarily even if it's against their economic interests! To be clear, I don't think they explicitly intended it to boost their economy at the expense of the euro periphery, but it did work out this way.
 
Rationally, this is insane. Romania is roughly tied with Turkey in GDP per capita, and Bulgaria is poorer still (around Mexico's level). But yet majorities clearly want to join the euro anyway. I don't know for sure why, but if I had to guess, it has something to do with wanting to be recognized as worthy of inclusion in a rich-country club and not being explicitly second-rate with a non-euro currency anymore. Fortunately, the EU would not allow them in even if they wanted to. I suspect that something like this must have been what possessed the Greeks to cook their books and get admitted to the euro in 2001.

This is the perverse genius of the euro project from the perspective of a surplus country. They can actually get the periphery to agree to join completely voluntarily even if it's against their economic interests! To be clear, I don't think they explicitly intended it to boost their economy at the expense of the euro periphery, but it did work out this way.

I am aware of all this, and this is what I have been trying to get the Euro-haters to finally admit (keep in mind that I don't think you are a Euro-hater). Because even if we assume the worst about the surplus countries and operate on the assumption that they deliberately deceived the periphery into joining, the fault still ultimately lies with the periphery. If a nation acts against its own economic interest just so they can be in the "rich kid" club, they can't turn around and blame the real rich kids for their poor decision making.

The main point I am making, is that it is completely ridiculous for anyone to blame Germany for any of this. Germany did not force anyone to join the EU, and you cannot reasonably expect them to take action against their own economic interest just so other nations can have a "fair shot" at economic success. Common currency does not mean everyone gets an equal share of the wealth. Just look at the United States. There are certainly some states that benefit greatly from the strength of the US Dollar and others that get the shaft economically because of it. It's the same for the Euro, some members are getting hand-over-fist rich from it, and others are getting left behind. The main difference between the US Dollar and the Euro though, is that states in the US have the US Dollar forced upon them due to the political union of the US, whereas member nations of the EU are free to abandon the Euro whenever they so choose. There's just some economic pain they would suffer by doing so. I mean, if things are really so bad for the periphery in the EU, then those nations need to just bite the bullet and leave the Eurozone. However, if they are too timid or scared to do so, then they really do need to stop complaining because at this point, they have no one to blame for their current circumstances than themselves.
 
So we're still not going to answer my question? Got it.
I was hoping you could understand the answer for yourself.

Because states are not always guided by rational interest and do not correctly see and interpret all existing and possible facts, and those facts on not always presented to them honestly.
 
I was hoping you could understand the answer for yourself.

Because states are not always guided by rational interest and do not correctly see and interpret all existing and possible facts, and those facts on not always presented to them honestly.

I make no attempt to understand or interpret snarky responses.

And I get that states don't always act rationally, but it really bothers me when states don't act rationally and then try to blame others for the inevitable poop-storm that follows their irrational decisions.
 
@ Bootstoots: I think there is huge difference if country leaves monetary union in state of bankrupcy without any financial reserves or not. I dont think there is really an option for the Greeks atm.
 
I find it funny that the defense against "the Euro only benefits Germany" is "no, it also benefits France" and that is supposed to make it all sound better to all the other countries. Every country being used by the Euro needs to wake up and ditch it.

The Euro is a Ponzi scheme. Benefits flow up the pyramid to the top (Germany, France) and misery flows down the pyramid to the bottom, where Greece has been. Countries in between get some benefits from the bottom and some misery from the top...but as the bottom crumbles the flow of benefits up stops, and the bottom where there is nothing but misery moves up.

Spain was at the bottom for a while, and Germany and France pulled them up onto someone elses backs so they could be in the middle for a while. That's what they want to do with Greece. Then they will do the same for whoever is at the bottom next. The longer they can rotate the middle and bottom positions while they stand on the top the better...for them, but not for anyone else.
 
I think there is still a great hope Euro can be fixed just like dollar works for whole of US with twice as many states then EU. Its a matter of good will and naturally national egoism stands in the way.

Edit: France is currently proposing fiscal union...
 
I find it funny that the defense against "the Euro only benefits Germany" is "no, it also benefits France" and that is supposed to make it all sound better to all the other countries. Every country being used by the Euro needs to wake up and ditch it.

The Euro is a Ponzi scheme. Benefits flow up the pyramid to the top (Germany, France) and misery flows down the pyramid to the bottom, where Greece has been. Countries in between get some benefits from the bottom and some misery from the top...but as the bottom crumbles the flow of benefits up stops, and the bottom where there is nothing but misery moves up.

Spain was at the bottom for a while, and Germany and France pulled them up onto someone elses backs so they could be in the middle for a while. That's what they want to do with Greece. Then they will do the same for whoever is at the bottom next. The longer they can rotate the middle and bottom positions while they stand on the top the better...for them, but not for anyone else.

Okay, let's assume this is the reality of the situation (it's not, but whatever). How is Germany still the bad guy? I was taught as a child that scammers can only succeed when there are people out there willing to let themselves be scammed. The promise of universal wealth and prosperity offered by the EU should have immediately thrown up red flags in the periphery states before they even joined. However, they allowed themselves to be tempted by those promises of wealth and prosperity without any concern for any of the possible consequences.

Plus, did you ever stop to think that the reason the bottom members don't ditch the Euro is because they are still better off now than when they had their own currency? Before the Euro Spain, Greece and Ireland had some of the lowest standards of living of the European nations that were not former-Soviet republics. Once they adopted the Euro however, their standard of living greatly increased. So it seems they feel getting kicked around a little by Germany and France is a fair price to pay to maintain the lifestyle they now enjoy.

Also, to label the EU a Ponzi scheme, you would have to demonstrate how membership in the Eurozone is compulsory for all members that are not Germany and France. Last I checked, membership in the EU was completely voluntary and members are free to leave at any moment they so choose. For this to be a Ponzi scheme you have to show that the so-called victims have absolutely no recourse to change their circumstances, and this simply is not the case. Just because the bottom feeders choose not to change their circumstances, does not mean they are being forced to remain in the Eurozone by Germany and France.
 
@ Bootstoots: I think there is huge difference if country leaves monetary union in state of bankrupcy without any financial reserves or not. I dont think there is really an option for the Greeks atm.
There is a difference in that bankrupt countries face more severe short-term consequences, but then they face severe consequences no matter what they do and the euro is serving as a straitjacket for them. The current problems in Greece clearly won't be fixed until they leave and take the hit, which will include a total failure of their banking system and rapid depreciation of the new drachma.
 
I think there is still a great hope Euro can be fixed just like dollar works for whole of US with twice as many states then EU. Its a matter of good will and naturally national egoism stands in the way.

Edit: France is currently proposing fiscal union...

The US is a single country, despite having states. One monetary policy for one country may not have absolutely uniform benefits across the entire country, but having a single monetary policy established across multiple countries that have economic policies that are otherwise independent just doesn't work.

"Fiscal union" could be a path to making it work, but I see no hope in heck of it actually happening. The proposal will get watered until it is the current unified monetary policy plus some tiny sops thrown in to make it "we can call it fiscal since it is more than just monetary".
 
Back
Top Bottom