What are your thoughts on BitCoin?

[Mise]

Did I just read someone claiming a 100% gain on invenstment was "completely marginal"?

I did! With clear indication that the poster meant a 100% gain is too small.

Jesus Christ Dunning Kreugerrands are a hell of a drug.

That said I hope all of you got filthy rich, legit.

The way I read his post, he's saying that it's highly unlikely that BTC will gain 100%, because that means it has to go up a full 20k (which sounds very unlikely). Therefore, in reality, any gains are likely to be completely marginal. On the other hand, other altcoins only have to go up a small $ amount in order to deliver 100% returns (and those altcoins going up a small $ amount seems more likely to him).

What he's saying, fundamentally, is that BTC is "expensive" and other altcoins are "cheap", compared to the price that he expects them respectively to be in the future. But he's saying it in a way that does indeed betray all the irrational decision-making thought processes that gamblers and lay-investors (and actually a huge number of professional investors too, in fairness) use and have always used. You can think that BTC is expensive and other altcoins are cheap, and therefore sell BTC and buy other altcoins - that is rational. But there doesn't seem to be much questioning of why one holds that belief, other than there mere fact that 20k sounds big and other altcoins cost less. What should a BTC cost? What should an ETH cost? What should an LTC cost? Does anybody have any rationale for why they think that these currencies are "cheap" or "expensive" right now, other than looking at a chart and making a gut feel judgement based on past history?

Again, these are reasons why I won't buy any of this stuff - because I have no idea what the answer to those questions are. And I don't gain any enjoyment whatsoever from gambling - never have done, never will do. Hate it. Just reading this thread gives me second-hand anxiety, like when someone sends you a screenshot of their phone and it's got 52 unread notifications and the battery is at 8%. But people are different, and wouldn't it be awfully dull if there were no gamblers in this world?

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Did I just read someone claiming a 100% gain on invenstment was "completely marginal"?

It's all relative, innit? In a market where peope can double their initial investment in a matter of days, and especially, lose it all, (potentially) doubling your money in the span of a year is marginal. It is, imo, not even worth the risk, because there is a decent chance this whole thing goes down this year.

Other hypothetical scenario: If winning the lottery only gave you double your initial investment, no one would do it, no? Because if chance of winning is so incredibly low, your returns have to be massive to make it work. It's similiar with the crypto market, hence why I advise stocks as a more meaningful method to make long-term money, compared to holding BTC.

The way I read his post, he's saying that it's highly unlikely that BTC will gain 100%, because that means it has to go up a full 20k (which sounds very unlikely). Therefore, in reality, any gains are likely to be completely marginal. On the other hand, other altcoins only have to go up a small $ amount in order to deliver 100% returns (and those altcoins going up a small $ amount seems more likely to him).

That is also what I was saying, yes, but I do actually think that if you correctly asses risk/reward, and if, just for the sake of the argument, assume there is a 50/50 chance of either doubling your investment (BTC going to 20k) or losing it all (the market crashing) then the positives are not enough to counteract the negatives, hence the gains are too small.

You can use the same line of reasoning to argue that gambling is not profitable. But if, hypothetically, the winning scenarios for playing the slots doubled their worth, then it would suddenly be profitable, assuming you repeat the experiment ad infinitum.

You can think that BTC is expensive and other altcoins are cheap, and therefore sell BTC and buy other altcoins - that is rational. But there doesn't seem to be much questioning of why one holds that belief, other than there mere fact that 20k sounds big and other altcoins cost less. What should a BTC cost? What should an ETH cost? What should an LTC cost? Does anybody have any rationale for why they think that these currencies are "cheap" or "expensive" right now, other than looking at a chart and making a gut feel judgement based on past history?

It's not just the price in itself - in fact the price is often a completely nonsaying parameter, considering that the people coming up with the coins decide their circulation. Meaning that some altcoins begin at 0.001cents per coin and some begin at 150$ per coin. The meaningful parameters to look at are Market Cap, Volume, Circulating Supply, Total Supply and then some 3rd factors like whether a coin can be mined, whether that is profitable and so forth. These factors tell you whether a coin has "room to grow" left or not. BitCoin has very, very little room to grow. It is already so expensive to mine that almost everyone who invested less than 5000$ on a mining rig stopped doing it, because the electricity costs outvalue the gains. In the future it will be more and more difficult to bring more into circulation.

 

[El_Machinae]

Well, other than bubble-riding, what the speculators are hoping to find are the altcoins that the average person will hold for convenience. If you look at my wallet, I have about $65. Now, eventually I will spend those specific bills, but I will also refill my wallet with dollars because of their convenience.

I am like most people, and so there is a constant amount of CAD being 'hoarded'. And this is what will happen if/when there is an altcoin winner. For good reason, I don't think that this can be bitcoin itself. So then we wonder if BTC will become the gold standard, in a way similar to how gold is a gold standard for the various currencies.

 

[Narz]

The way I read his post, he's saying that it's highly unlikely that BTC will gain 100%, because that means it has to go up a full 20k (which sounds very unlikely)

I'd be very surprised if it doesn't go back to 20k. Unfortunately I don't really have the funds right now to put more into it, if I had an extra 20 or 30 thousand laying around I definitely would have bought back when it dipped below 10k.

Then again, as I've never denied I really have very little idea what's going on. Obviously if I did I would have put away more money into etherium and got on the altcoin boat with better timing.

I'm trying to save for a downpayment for a house right now so not putting any more money into the game, may move it around between coins but mostly waiting to see what happens. My initial investments (or speculations if you like) were small enough that I'm really not going to be overall harmed badly if there's another crash. Obviously I'll be pretty psyched if everything goes back up further or reaches new peaks, especially litecoins.

One thing for sure, anyone who claims this or that will happen at x-time is always wrong. And, just like in the non-crypto world, much of the fluctuations is due to a few major players manipulating the markets for their own gains.

I'm trying to contrast the volatility of these markets with my own daily practices (walking, strength training, meditation... mostly sporadic but working on that), so no matter whether I have , $25k, $40k or somewhere in between I'm chopping wood and carrying water.

 

[yung.carl.jung]

I'm trying to contrast the volatility of these markets with my own daily practices (walking, strength training, meditation... mostly sporadic but working on that), so no matter whether I have , $25k, $40k or somewhere in between I'm chopping wood and carrying water.

Recently picked up daily jogging for me, too! How did you start your journey towards enlightenment? I've been frustratingly attempting meditation for more than 5 years now but lack the self-discipline to do it daily. Did you have any formal instruction/training?

Your routine sounds very much like something I aspire towards. I have the cardio and strength training part down, what I'm looking forward to is trying to read way, way more, straying away from social media, youtube clips and other instant gratification towards watching movies or listening to music with my eyes closed and focussing more on creating instead of merely consuming. I paint every other day and write pretty much daily. However I am such a in-the-moment person that developing any kind of routine is very hard. How do you keep up?

I at least have made a successful attempt to ritualize some of my good habits, so every day I start with a little tea ceremony, followed by a very healthy, nutritious, drawn-out breakfast where I listen to world news on the radio, followed by a nice morning routine to get the noggin' joggin. At least that's some stability.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

Yep, I think it is all about mental strength. This is a nonsensical game ruled by ambition and fear, if you manage to keep your reason when everybody else losses his mind you can get filthy rich.

 

[Narz]

Recently picked up daily jogging for me, too! How did you start your journey towards enlightenment? I've been frustratingly attempting meditation for more than 5 years now but lack the self-discipline to do it daily. Did you have any formal instruction/training?

Lol, enlightenment. I've been trying to start meditating (keyword : trying) since I first heard about it maybe 20 years ago, I took a MBSR (Mindfulness-based stress reduction) class a few summers ago in NYC, it was ok but as soon as it was over I fell off almost immediately, most of my "meditating" is just me lying down & trying to remember I'm even trying to meditate (as opposed to just daydreaming). I did about 25 days in November, 1 in December & about 3 since the new year, trying to get back to almost daily.

Your routine sounds very much like something I aspire towards. I have the cardio and strength training part down, what I'm looking forward to is trying to read way, way more, straying away from social media, youtube clips and other instant gratification towards watching movies or listening to music with my eyes closed and focusing more on creating instead of merely consuming. I paint every other day and write pretty much daily. However I am such a in-the-moment person that developing any kind of routine is very hard. How do you keep up?

Again, I'm a fellow seeker more than any sort of person to be giving advice. Lots of immediate gratification in my life too. I kind of miss NYC because no Internet on the subway (in stations but not in the cars) so I was forced to either read or watch videos I'd deliberately downloaded (rather than browsing video to video). One thing I've done here in Florida is become a member at a Kava bar down here that has a membership option where you can use the lougne area upstairs above the main bar. I use that to read/study chess (my hobby, aiming at Master) and don't allow myself mindless surfing (facebook, CFC, other forums) there. My goal is daily for at least a few hours, I manage maybe twice weekly.

I at least have made a successful attempt to ritualize some of my good habits, so every day I start with a little tea ceremony, followed by a very healthy, nutritious, drawn-out breakfast where I listen to world news on the radio, followed by a nice morning routine to get the noggin' joggin. At least that's some stability.

Any positive routine should be celebrated, better than none. I think it's important to appreciate these small victories instead of losing heart cuz it's not enuf.

 

[Commodore]

Aaaaaaand here comes the first round of legal action against crypto currency operators:

Today the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced that it has filed a federal civil enforcement action against three virtual currency operators. The details of one case remain sealed, but the other two companies facing charges are CabbageTech and Entrepreneurs Headquarters Ltd. The charges include fraud, misrepresentation, misappropriation and more, and are the first enforcement actions since the CFTC allowed trading bitcoin futures.

Also, this quote from the article seemed particularly interesting:

There are also fears that bitcoin and other cryptocurrency could threaten the security of the global economy; as a result, the US isn't the only country taking action. China is moving toward an "orderly exit" from bitcoin mining because of its use of resources, as well as its affect on investors. Back in December, South Korea (which is the third largest market for cryptocurrency, after the US and Japan) banned all anonymous cryptocurrency accounts and enacted new regulations for monitoring exchanges.

This goes back to what I was saying earlier that crypto currencies will fail because the establishment wants them to fail. Three of the world's most powerful nations economically are now actively attacking the crypto currency market in an attempt to force a crash. They are just going to keep shutting down exchanges and slapping crypto trading with heavy-handed regulations to make people start thinking that it simply isn't worth all the hassle and pull out.

Link to article: https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/19/cftc-charges-three-cryptocurrency-operators/

 

[Bamspeedy]

Aaaaaaand here comes the first round of legal action against crypto currency operators:

That's not 'actions to shut down crypto currencies', that's arresting people committing fraud, like Bernie Madoff.

That's not to say the crypto currencies aren't being watched by governments and are/going to be regulated.

 

[Commodore]

That's not to say the crypto currencies aren't being watched by governments and are/going to be regulated.

That is a problem for crypto currencies though. The biggest draw for crypto currencies is the anonymity. That is now gone in South Korea as they banned all anonymous crypto currency accounts and trading. Soon that anonymity will disappear everywhere else as well.

And China's not just regulating crypto currencies, they are trying to eliminate them altogether from the Chinese economy.

That's not 'actions to shut down crypto currencies', that's arresting people committing fraud, like Bernie Madoff.

And they're making sure it's all going to get highly publicized to destroy faith in crypto currency. That's why every negative story about crypto currencies gets plastered all over the media, while positive stories about them hardly get a mention. There is definitely a concerted effort to paint crypto currencies in a negative light to discourage investment/speculation.

 

[Bamspeedy]

And they're making sure it's all going to get highly publicized to destroy faith in crypto currency. That's why every negative story about crypto currencies gets plastered all over the media, while positive stories about them hardly get a mention. There is definitely a concerted effort to paint crypto currencies in a negative light to discourage investment/speculation.

And that is why the source for your article is engadget.com and not CNN.com or even FOX News?

 

[El_Machinae]

I'm stunned that they're actually going after crypto legally. I wouldn't do that. I'd just write a simple law, "Any contracts containing cryptocurrency are not enforceable in our courts".

Easypeasy. They stop freeriding on our justice system, and their ability to affect our economies outright plummets.

 

[Commodore]

And that is why the source for your article is engadget.com and not CNN.com or even FOX News?

Because that's the source that popped up in my news feed? I'm sure CNN and other major media outlets have something on it or will have something on it later.

EDIT: Here are links to Bloomberg and CNBC reports on it. Are those big enough sources for you?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...paign=headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/cftc-charges-cabbagetech-virtual-currency-132900673.html

I'm stunned that they're actually going after crypto legally

Because they want to destroy people's faith in it so when the market dies it looks like it died naturally. They also want to discredit crypto currency by making it appear as though it is nothing more than a giant scam that criminals and fraudsters are using to prey on the naive. If they start writing laws specifically targeted at crypto currency, that may cause the public to rally to its defense.

Once the crypto market has been dragged through the mud enough and its reputation has been tarnished in the eyes of the public, then the government can start a legislative offensive against it. Just like they have done with ridesharing. All we heard was years and years of bad press about the ridesharing industry while governments sat back and waited. Now that ridesharing is generally seen in a negative light by the public, governments are starting to pass legislation that is very unfriendly to the ridesharing industry.

That's how you have to play the game now. You can't just outright ban something. You have to stir up a hatemob first so when you do get around to banning it, the people will cheer you for it rather than screaming "oppression!"

 

[yung.carl.jung]

Aaaaaaand here comes the first round of legal action against crypto currency operators:



Also, this quote from the article seemed particularly interesting:



This goes back to what I was saying earlier that crypto currencies will fail because the establishment wants them to fail. Three of the world's most powerful nations economically are now actively attacking the crypto currency market in an attempt to force a crash. They are just going to keep shutting down exchanges and slapping crypto trading with heavy-handed regulations to make people start thinking that it simply isn't worth all the hassle and pull out.

Link to article: https://www.engadget.com/2018/01/19/cftc-charges-three-cryptocurrency-operators/

I think it's good that the US govt is banning scammers. That recent exit scam.. I think it was called BitConnect or something stupid, actually had multiple people threatening suicide over social media. I think that in itself is much more negative coverage than the govt cracking down on professional scammers.

Also, just fyi, I cannot count how many times China has "banned BTC" and "banned mining" with all fingers on both of my hands. The Chinese govt might even partner with VECHAIN. A week ago the Korean Ministry of Justice said it was considering a BitCoin ban and.. Nothing happened. In fact they might endorse their own state-backed Crypto soon.

I definitely see where you are going with your line of argumentation. I think both conventional media and the upper echelons of politics have a vested interested in keeping Crypto down, for a multitude of reasons.

Lol, enlightenment. I've been trying to start meditating (keyword : trying) since I first heard about it maybe 20 years ago, I took a MBSR (Mindfulness-based stress reduction) class a few summers ago in NYC, it was ok but as soon as it was over I fell off almost immediately, most of my "meditating" is just me lying down & trying to remember I'm even trying to meditate (as opposed to just daydreaming). I did about 25 days in November, 1 in December & about 3 since the new year, trying to get back to almost daily.


Again, I'm a fellow seeker more than any sort of person to be giving advice. Lots of immediate gratification in my life too. I kind of miss NYC because no Internet on the subway (in stations but not in the cars) so I was forced to either read or watch videos I'd deliberately downloaded (rather than browsing video to video). One thing I've done here in Florida is become a member at a Kava bar down here that has a membership option where you can use the lougne area upstairs above the main bar. I use that to read/study chess (my hobby, aiming at Master) and don't allow myself mindless surfing (facebook, CFC, other forums) there. My goal is daily for at least a few hours, I manage maybe twice weekly.


Any positive routine should be celebrated, better than none. I think it's important to appreciate these small victories instead of losing heart cuz it's not enuf.

nice I dusted off the glass chess set that I had as a kid and play every now and then with my girlfriend. Chess however is one of those games where it's really not enjoyable when one party is clearly better than the other (and she is, clearly, better). We also play Go and I've fallen in love with it.

recently I've put a whole catalogue of 20th century poetry on my smartphone to stop me from browsing whenever I'm on the sub/bus/train. it's worked okay so far.

 

[Kozmos]

That is a problem for crypto currencies though. The biggest draw for crypto currencies is the anonymity.

Anonymity wasn't ever real considering all transactions were visible. You weren't traceable through bank accounts directly, but you were visible through other means. Monero and ZCash are the only 2 real privacy oriented coins now among however hundreds of them. And I don't think even they have proofed their protocols against someone who cares to really find out who or where someone is. People are into cryptocurrencies because they like money and/or gambling. It's almost game-like, a beginner friendly stock market simulacrum. It's certainly more exciting that investing into global developing markets funds and signing a bunch of documents for a 3.14-5% return a year at most.

 

[innonimatu]

I'm stunned that they're actually going after crypto legally. I wouldn't do that. I'd just write a simple law, "Any contracts containing cryptocurrency are not enforceable in our courts".

Easypeasy. They stop freeriding on our justice system, and their ability to affect our economies outright plummets.

I like the idea, but I must also point out that such contracts have not been enforceable in the past anyway (that's why so many frauds keep happening) and nevertheless people kept pouring money into this. An ambitious crook will honor his deals to build confidence with the victims, until he has enough money in his hands to steal it all at once.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Bitcoin is becoming a religion and its promised land is wealth. Some may get there. May you have great luck in that endeavor.

 

[Birdjaguar]

We also play Go and I've fallen in love with it.

Good game; good choice.

 

[Moriarte]

Anonymity wasn't ever real considering all transactions were visible. You weren't traceable through bank accounts directly, but you were visible through other means. Monero and ZCash are the only 2 real privacy oriented coins now among however hundreds of them. And I don't think even they have proofed their protocols against someone who cares to really find out who or where someone is. People are into cryptocurrencies because they like money and/or gambling. It's almost game-like, a beginner friendly stock market simulacrum. It's certainly more exciting that investing into global developing markets funds and signing a bunch of documents for a 3.14-5% return a year at most.

There is a high barrier of entrance to the stock/bond market. First is knowledge, then experience in various walks of life, to be able to identify a good thing when you see one - knowledge of accounting, business practices, micro/macro industrial and economic analysis. Then we have another massive stopwall - considerable capital requirement. Why? Having 30% annual return during a decade is considered stellar in, say, nasdaq environment, that’s why. Regulators weren’t going easy on me last few years too. The recent: I spent considerable time researching Weibo and just before I was ready to seize the day this 3rd January, I find out in my trading window that new european regulation prohibit my bank & me from buying stock of chinese companies, because they are suddenly (as of 2018) less transparent than european regulators want them to be. All the while american investors keep happily trading alibaba and weibo shares, giggling and pointing fingers in my general direction (no doubt). Another present as of this January is higher tax rate for capital gains on trading stocks and alike. Fair enough, I guess.

On the other hand there’s crypto, which brings about gains & losses of multiple hundreds percent within weeks, which is scarcely regulated and mostly secure, when you know what to do. It’s accessible to any dummy with a credit card (and even to some dummies with just a GPU), it treats you like a market participant mostly (try trading on chicago mercantile exchange or ftse by today’s sun dusk and tell me how it went), it is nearly instant and quite cheap, when you use the right currencies. So, we see large funds flow into it in a short time frame. Hunddrrds of billions. Is this a good thing? It was inevitable, according to me. Every person has the right to do what I do without the need to go through the hoops of being traditional investor, without artificial walls and moats governments surrounded me with, for my own safety, yess. On the bright side I do pay for the wall, so we’re even.

Crypto is still young, there is plenty of grey zone and generally unfavourable stigma attached to it in the society already. There is little to research and base objective opinion on, yet in time meat will grow on the bones, as can be already seen from careful roadmaps, which are trending in recent ICOs. Yes, the market is filled with amateurs, fortune tellers and alike. Then again, so is every other market.

What’s important to me - it’s an open market, a transparent one, in general, it also, quire clearly, evolves and establishes itself in the world. It gives equal access to everyone, not just the fat cats. The fact that some transactions are anonymous or transparent is irrelevant, have a look at zcash and ask yourself - how many people do really use shielded transactions? You might be surprised if you google the answer. Anonymity is not why most people use privacy-oriented zcash. They use it because .. well, do your own research on that one.

Yes, it bothers me that some governments can’t get a grip and this creates nervousness in the ranks, but that’s mostly fueled by greed and lack of education in the field. Yet other governments do differently. America allows functioning of several major exchanges and taxes crypto traders, ICE trades crypto futures; Belarus and few other small states plan sandbox-type of interaction with temporary 0 tax. Little things like that bring about confidence. Of course, things are more old-shool and controversial in places, like russia or china. New news.

 

[Archbob]

Yeah, basically, the ability to gain hundreds or thousands of percentage points doing crypto without barriers within a short time frame is the main attraction. People like the Hyper-volatile stock market without all the BS it takes to get into traditional investing. I don't care about being anonymous, I'll pay my taxes.

And hey, its my money, if I want to make a sound investing getting 6% return per year, I should be able to.
However, if I want to piss away my money by playing blackjack, I should be free to do that as well.

Wall Street doesn't like it because its something that could eventually challenge their status and power but they won't be able to stop it after a while. And the "full market understanding" is total BS anyways. A monkey throwing darts often beats a group of the best financial advisors in investing.