Abaddon
Deity
love how most of us are shouting the same point 
This thread has the most x-posting i have ever seen!
This thread has the most x-posting i have ever seen!
When do you think Oil will become scare and when will it run out?
- Thread starter Xanikk999
- Start date
Fugitive Sisyphus
Escape Artist
As people have already said, we will never run out of oil and it has always been scarce.
But when will it become too scarce? I don't know. It is incredibly cheap now still. I expect it will become 'scarce' when China and India reach a similar level of industrialization as the western world. Now, as to when this will be, I have no idea.
But when will it become too scarce? I don't know. It is incredibly cheap now still. I expect it will become 'scarce' when China and India reach a similar level of industrialization as the western world. Now, as to when this will be, I have no idea.
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
But thats not the OPs question. The question you are answering is will we need oil in the next 50 years? I for one, hope that we eliminate, or cut down drastically our need for oil and I hope your prediction true.
What's the option for "I don't know?"
Abaddon
Deity
Any suggestions how?
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
Not exactly...there are quite a few hennie pennys out there that think humans will destroy ourselves due to global warming in the next 50 years.
Do you deny this?
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
Actually, if you knew anything you'd know that the estimated time until earth destruction is currently ~5 years. Luckily, I read an e-book about how to build a veggie powered rocketship to mars, where I will develop an organic farm to oxygenate the atmosphere.
Dont forget to use the polar ice caps!
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
Oil is cheaper than milk. Do you consider milk scarce? Think about it.
Edit: to put it into perspective a 50 gallon barrel of milk would cost about $120-150 bucks US.
Abaddon
Deity
No, but noone here has said that, and you used your excess to move the goalposts
Abaddon
Deity
And bottled water is more expencive still...
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
I am not moving the goal posts, I am pointing out that there will always be some segment of the population that will think the end will come within 50 years no matter what the issue.
Abaddon
Deity
Well if its always "within 50 years" and not getting any shorter, whats to worry about
ShannonCT
Deity
Certainly, but maybe that's because I am an economist. I realize that there is a layman's definition of scarce and an economist's definition, but we are talking about an economic issue here.
Milk is a renewable resource of course, and the price of milk won't change much (before inflation) because the cost of raising a cow and extracting its milk isn't going to change much. It won't be long before the price of gasoline exceeds the price of milk in the US, because demand for oil is increasing rapidly. When the cost of extracting the oil really starts shooting up, oil is doomed as a fuel source.
???
With regard to the Henny Pennies, I misunderstood your inclusion of the word "Al Gore kool aid drinkers"
edit x2: not fair to respond to ad hominem trolling with some of my own ...
edit; x-post. I didn't realise MobBoss doesn't know what 'scarce' means in this discussion.
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
Indeed. Sometimes the crazies even manage to get best-selling books and movies published.
Spoiler :
Thats fiction. I am referring to people who actually believe it.
We won't run out. But there will become a point where finding the oil becomes very expensive because there's little left. When that cost exceeds that of an equivalent fuel source, people will stop using oil because it will be poor value for money.
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
Lets not devolve into some arguement over the defintion of scarce. To me, it means 'not available' or 'hard to find'. Oil is neither. Again, I stand by the simple fact that oil production has increased over the years...not decreased. Yes, I agree that there is more demand for oil directly due to Asian markets, but thats all to the good of OPEC. OPEC could indeed over-produce oil and drop the price by a lot, but why cut their profits to do so? They have incentive to keep the price of oil as high as the market will bear in order to profit from it. That doesnt equat into meaning that oil is scarce, it just means people are willing to pay that much for it.
shannonCT said:
Heh, so is oil...it just takes a lot longer to renew it....
What you dont account for here is the more modern process of extracting oil cheaper and more efficiently. At the moment, its demand that is dictating the price, not the cost of extracting it. I dont envision the actual cost of extrating oil 'shooting up' as you say, especially not within the next 50 years or so. Demand may go up, but OPEC has more than enough production capacity to meet that need if they have to.
Leonel
Breakfast Connoisseur
No clue. I was told when I was in primary school that we'd run out of oil in 2000. But that was 7 years ago and we still have oil and it seems like we'll still have oil for the time being.
Er, I see what you're saying. You're kinda replying to the OP differently than I am (I'm reading 'acceleration rate' where the OP reads 'rate' because it's more reasonable to do so).
Still, don't mistake production for supply. The amount we're squeezing out of the Earth now does not have to correlate with the supply (which is the main determinant as to when it will become 'scarce').
In general, people seem to forget that we consume a thousand barrels of oil per second.
PS: remember that you mocked Shannon's definition of scarce. His definition was an excellent one, and commonly used by people discussing economies (which oil supply/demand falls under). Be prepared for people to use the term his way, so that you don't think that the user is rediculous.
Still, don't mistake production for supply. The amount we're squeezing out of the Earth now does not have to correlate with the supply (which is the main determinant as to when it will become 'scarce').
In general, people seem to forget that we consume a thousand barrels of oil per second.
PS: remember that you mocked Shannon's definition of scarce. His definition was an excellent one, and commonly used by people discussing economies (which oil supply/demand falls under). Be prepared for people to use the term his way, so that you don't think that the user is rediculous.
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