When do you think Oil will become scare and when will it run out?

[Erik Mesoy]

Heh, so is oil...it just takes a lot longer to renew it....

The two normal definitions of a renewable resource are that it either renews itself faster than we use it, or that it renews itself within a generation. Oil is not a "renewable resource" by either of these definitions.

Why do you use a personal definition in a common discussion without explaining your definition first?

 

[GenMarshall]

Well never run out of oil in our lifetime.

It wont run out, but it will be inaccessible within 10 years. That's why I am saving up my SSI money to buy a van that runs of vegetable oil. I also plan on living on a sustainable farm with no need for oil, so I'm prepared.

Why not get a van that runs on Diesel? With just a few changes of the hoses you can just have it run on Bio-Diesel from regular used cooking oil.

 

[MobBoss]

Why do you use a personal definition in a common discussion without explaining your definition first?

Three things. As shannonCT pointed out, I am using the more common, laymans term as opposed to what some economist would define it as. Secondly, are not the vast majority of us discussing this here laymen? You are not an economist are you? Thus I am indeed using the more common definition. Third, when asked for clarification, I clarify. Thats called communication. Its on ongoing process.

 

[El_Machinae]

Third, when asked for clarification, I clarify. Thats called communication. Its on ongoing process.

Actually, and this is a mild rebuke, when you ran across something you didn't understand, you mocked it. Shannon gracefully took your mocking as an inquiry as to what he meant by his definition, starting the communication.

 

[Pokurcz]

When oil becomes scarce will plastic become more luxurious than wood?

 

[Xanikk999]

When oil becomes scarce will plastic become more luxurious than wood?

I think plastic can be made from other chemicals. Besides theres enough to recycle it til the end of time.

 

[Pokurcz]

Even more high end stuff (not for bottles/bags/fleece)?

Like dental plastic, but that maybe already is more expensive dough...

 

[warpus]

Oil is cheaper than milk. Do you consider milk scarce? Think about it.

Edit: to put it into perspective a 50 gallon barrel of milk would cost about $120-150 bucks US.

But how much more oil does the U.S. use compared to milk?

Price is not the only consideration.

 

[Erik Mesoy]

Three things. As shannonCT pointed out, I am using the more common, laymans term as opposed to what some economist would define it as.

That was with regard to "scarcity", I was referring to "renewable resource".

Secondly, are not the vast majority of us discussing this here laymen? You are not an economist, are you?

I don't pay specific attention to who here is a layman or not. You're a paralegal. I have worked as a programmer, a translator, and a mathematics teacher among other jobs. I also read professional literature in my spare time to improve my education.

Thus I am indeed using the more common definition.

Of "renewable resource"?

 

[El_Machinae]

Erik, I think that he was being intentionally being silly with his renewable comment.

What you dont account for here is the more modern process of extracting oil cheaper and more efficiently.

I believe that the energy cost of extracting oil is rising. Oil is different from many goods, because even though technologies rise, the oil gets harder to remove. It's not like solar, which will only get cheaper.

Though talking only about energy costs kinda confuses the issue, because (again) as the price of oil goes up, alternative energies will be used to extract the oil (for example, nuclear power at Fort MacMurry).

Same thing with biodiesel; as diesel goes up, more and more of the biodiesel will be produced using biodiesel.

However, given the simplistic OP, it's not unreasonable to assume that the barrels of oil will continue to get more and more energetically expensive to extract.

 

[The Fjonis]

(...) don't mistake production for supply. The amount we're squeezing out of the Earth now does not have to correlate with the supply (which is the main determinant as to when it will become 'scarce').

This is a point that many people seem to (choose to) ignore. I don't know about the world in general, but the rate of discovery of new petroleum resources in Norwegian territories is decreasing while the rate of production is increasing or staying at the same level. Sooner or later, production will have to go down.

Sure, reservoirs which were unprofitable to use 20 years ago can be used now with profit due to advances in technology and techniques, and this trend will continue, but that does not alter the main point -- our petroleum resources are finite, they will be used up. Arguing against this is simply foolish.

Which leads us back to the OP: when will the reserves get used up? From what I've heard, our known supplies of oil will last only about 50 years. We will of course discover new reservoirs, so my guess is that the reserves will "become scarce" (meaning prices go up, supply can't keep up with the demand, there will be an escalation in international resource conflicts etc) in roughly 50-70 years.

 

[AL_DA_GREAT]

not as soon as those dooms day people.

 

[MobBoss]

Actually, and this is a mild rebuke, when you ran across something you didn't understand, you mocked it.

What I call disagreement, you call mocking. To each his own I guess. But I still stand by my allegation - oil is not scarce, and I dont agree with that 'economists' definition of what defines scarcity.

 

[MobBoss]

But how much more oil does the U.S. use compared to milk?

Price is not the only consideration.

Are you saying that if we used more milk it would be cheaper? Not sure I would agree with that. In fact, if demand were increased milk would undoubtedly be even more expensive.

But I dont have an answer to your question. I would assume we use far more oil than milk, but to what extent I have no idea.

 

[Abaddon]

Heh, so is oil...it just takes a lot longer to renew it....

You know thats rubbish "renewable" means on a human time scale, not a geological one. Besides. The climate is not like the tropics which created the oil in the first place.. it isnt being slowly made anymore.

 

[MobBoss]

You're a paralegal. I have worked as a programmer, a translator, and a mathematics teacher among other jobs. I also read professional literature in my spare time to improve my education.

So do I Erik. But none of it makes either of us an 'economist'.

Of "renewable resource"?

Humor...its a concept.

 

[MobBoss]

You know thats rubbish "renewable" means on a human time scale, not a geological one. Besides. The climate is not like the tropics which created the oil in the first place.. it isnt being slowly made anymore.

You mean to tell me that the natural process of bio-material decomposing and slowly becoming oil no longer happens?

I would have to disagree, because of course it is 'slowly being made' even today. Its an ongoing process of the earth and it hasnt magically halted.

 

[ainwood]

You mean to tell me that the natural process of bio-material decomposing and slowly becoming oil no longer happens?

I would have to disagree, because of course it is 'slowly being made' even today. Its an ongoing process of the earth and it hasnt magically halted.

I think your pushing the boundaries a bit there. Oil is not "renewable" in that people cannot renew it.

As for oil becoming more efficient to produce, that is misleading. Improvements in technology, coupled with a higher oil price actually make it economic to produce oil that was previously considered uneconomic (and in some cases, impossible). It is also allowing higher recovery factors from fields. BTW - typical recovery factors are still ony around 35%-40% of the Oil initially in place.

 

[MobBoss]

I think your pushing the boundaries a bit there. Oil is not "renewable" in that people cannot renew it.

Of course 'people' cannot renew it....but the process, measured in geologic time, most assuredly is continuing today as it did millions of years ago. That was my point. Oil is only 'renewable' if one views it on a geologic time scale.

As for oil becoming more efficient to produce, that is misleading. Improvements in technology, coupled with a higher oil price actually make it economic to produce oil that was previously considered uneconomic (and in some cases, impossible). It is also allowing higher recovery factors from fields. BTW - typical recovery factors are still ony around 35%-40% of the Oil initially in place.

That is more in line of what I was referring to. Example: using sea water pumped into the substrata under the oil in order to force the oil up and out of the field. A simple, but effective way to get more oil out of a well that previously wasnt done.

 

[Eukaryote]

I'm guessing natrually occuring oil will become unprofitable to extract in 30-50 years. However in that time we may perfect artifically creating oil.