When will traditional chinese characters disappear?

[gangleri2001]

Easy question, when will they disappear?

Because, let's be realists, it's not like that thr PRC is going to change back to the traditionals. In 2006 the Taiwanese government changed the official transcription from bopomofo (zhuyin) to pinyin because of informatic reasons.

This alone is a good sign of what is going to be IMO the final triumph of the simplification made in the 50's. Sure the chinese think that "traditionals are more beautiful" and stuff, but on a realistic way of thinking it's highly unlikely. It's unlikely because anyone who, for example, prefers to write (by hand) 幾 instead of 几 or 個 instead of 个 (no matter if it's kaishu or xingshu) is, IMO, just plain crazy. Even the recent problems found such as scholars forgetting how to write by hand an (increasing) handful of characters due to computarization of written language makes any step in the direction of traditionals just impossible.

Besides, it's not like the communists just "made up" the simplification. What communists actually did was make official simplifications already in usage in Qing times or take characters from other callygraphic styles (mainly caoshu) and make them official in both, kaishu and xingshu. So, if you think that's it's a "commie thing", you better forget it: what Mao did was, in lots of cases, put an end to an stupid difference between official characters and characters of daily usage.

And now that I've told you this, I'm gonna make my guess. Mmmm... To me the most realistic date for the end of traditional characters seems to be 2035. The increasing number of foreigners learning the language and the fact that the taiwanese government (the stronghold of traditional characters) has already begun to give up makes very clear to me that a slow process of imposition of simplified characters has already begun whose results will most likely be seen in about 20 years.

And now, your guess. When will they end?

 

[Godwynn]

When Chinese gets replaced by the superior language (English.)

 

[gangleri2001]

When Chinese gets replaced by the superior language (English.)

Too bad English will also be replaced by the most superior language of them all (Deutsch)

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Traditional characters are not official on the mainland but as I understand they are very popular on bussiness cards and among more "intellectual" circles. They might be irrelevant in everyday life but I doubt they'll completely disappear in our lifetime.

 

[gangleri2001]

Yes, they're still being used in the mainland. But, when compared to simplified, their presence is merely testimonial. They're, as their own name suggest, a "traditional" thing.

 

[klaidonis]

Партия Масия — сила народная
Нас к торжеству каталанизма ведёт!

This signature is amazing!

 

[Adrogans]

I doubt they will ever disappear completely. But from general usage give it 2 or 3 more generations.

 

[civ_king]

Characters are deeply tied to the Chinese culture, I don't know if Traditional should ever truly die, maybe studied like Latin, but it truly dying would be sad

 

[Winner]

I don't see why they haven't switched to some alphabet-based system already. From what I gather, what they have now is terribly cumbersome.

 

[gangleri2001]

I doubt they will ever disappear completely. But from general usage give it 2 or 3 more generations.

Of course they will never die. In fact, the characters established by the Qin dynasty are still being used with mainly decorative purposes.
But I really doubt that it will take 2 or 3 generations more. The simplified nowadays represent the majority of chinese texts that are produced. I really doubt that the taiwanese govenment will fail to see such a simple fact: nothing can be done against the rule of the simplified. However, the turn point will be the moment that the taiwanese government establishes the simplified characters as the official ones, after this, and even though traditional characters will still be used, we will be already able to say that the age of traditional characters is completely over. Besides, the computerization of writing has lead chinese calligraphy to the largest crisis in its history. Computers are speeding things up. That's why I think that it will take about 25 years to see the final triumph of simplified characters.

Characters are deeply tied to the Chinese culture, I don't know if Traditional should ever truly die, maybe studied like Latin, but it truly dying would be sad

Traditional characters will certainly never die, it only will happen that simplified characters will take their place as the writing system of daily usage in Taiwan. BTW, it's not that sad really. Every dynasty changed the writing system as they pleased. So it will actually fit within chinese history.

I don't see why they haven't switched to some alphabet-based system already. From what I gather, what they have now is terribly cumbersome.

That's is impossible for two reasons: limited syllabes of mandarin chinese and linguistic union between dialects.

Mandarin has about 400 syllabes. When we add the tones to them we have about 1000 sounds. That's an extremely reduced set of syllabes that would make the adoption of an alphabetic system legaly unpractical: laws would be full of homophones, which would be the largest legal mess ever.
Besides, characters allow people of many other "dialects" (actually most of sino-tibetan languages) to understand each other without sharing the same language since they all are written the same. Do something against characters would be perceived by many chinese people as "going against national union". We cannot separate characters (in fact, the whole writing system) with their political menaing. In fact, as new dynasties reached the power, they usually changed the writing system as a sign of the "new order". As you can see, the writing system has always had an extremely high political meaning throughout chinese history.

 

[bob bobato]

That's is impossible for two reasons: limited syllabes of mandarin chinese and linguistic union between dialects.

Mandarin has about 400 syllabes. When we add the tones to them we have about 1000 sounds. That's an extremely reduced set of syllabes that would make the adoption of an alphabetic system legaly unpractical: laws would be full of homophones, which would be the largest legal mess ever.
Besides, characters allow people of many other "dialects" (actually most of sino-tibetan languages) to understand each other without sharing the same language since they all are written the same. Do something against characters would be perceived by many chinese people as "going against national union". We cannot separate characters (in fact, the whole writing system) with their political menaing. In fact, as new dynasties reached the power, they usually changed the writing system as a sign of the "new order". As you can see, the writing system has always had an extremely high political meaning throughout chinese history.

How do these problems exist in the Pinyin system? Do speakers of remote dialects have trouble using it, for example, and are there difficulties telling the differences between words written in Pinyin?

 

[gangleri2001]

How do these problems exist in the Pinyin system? Do speakers of remote dialects have trouble using it, for example, and are there difficulties telling the differences between words written in Pinyin?

Pinyin is a transcription system of mandarin chinese. When we speak about chinese, the word "dialect" actually means language. In other words, speakers of other dialects cannot use pinyin because it's a transcription method of another language.

 

[civ_king]

Pinyin is a transcription system of mandarin chinese. When we speak about chinese, the word "dialect" actually means language. In other words, speakers of other dialects cannot use pinyin because it's a transcription method of another language.

 

[warpus]

I'm learning all sorts of things in this thread, keep it up.

 

[exhile]

Traditional characters will never be gone. They will continued to be used in Taiwan & Hong Kong for the forseeable future.

 

[Bill3000]

If they want to keep tradition of some sort, create an alphabet from said characters, a chinese pinyin. Failing that, kill it with fire; it's a fundamentally inferior writing system.

 

[Tee Kay]

Characters are deeply tied to the Chinese culture, I don't know if Traditional should ever truly die, maybe studied like Latin, but it truly dying would be sad

Probably this. There will still be a lot of literature written in Traditional.

 

[plarq]

Pinyin is a transcription system of mandarin chinese. When we speak about chinese, the word "dialect" actually means language. In other words, speakers of other dialects cannot use pinyin because it's a transcription method of another language.

Oh, the bridge between dialects are Chinese characters, different dialects have various pronunciations, thus using Pinyin will result no communication between different dialects.

South China has a stronger variation between dialects than North. Northern China dialects are variants of Mandarin, while Southern China has several dialect groups, each parallel to Mandarin.

 

[bob bobato]

Oh, the bridge between dialects are Chinese characters, different dialects have various pronunciations, thus using Pinyin will result no communication between different dialects.

South China has a stronger variation between dialects than North. Northern China dialects are variants of Mandarin, while Southern China has several dialect groups, each parallel to Mandarin.

But those that really matter? I mean, in English, we have dialects too, and so much of our spelling is unrelated to actual pronunciations. Yet we still understand written english. Why would Mandarin be different?

 

[azzaman333]

When people stop using them.