In math, and this is a bit beyond your 5th grade classes, we often simplify complex realities to make models which we can use to illuminate a problem. If this sounds like cheating to you, perhaps you could move on to high-school level math.
Why Is It Whenever Someone Is Asked About The Future
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In math, and this is a bit beyond your 5th grade classes, we often simplify complex realities to make models which we can use to illuminate a problem. If this sounds like cheating to you, perhaps you could move on to high-school level math.
The future makes a good canvas for our fears and fantasies. The most popular fears and fantasies tend to be the most sensational. This is partly because people are generally predisposed to simplistic binary thinking, and partly because sensational ideas are inherently more interesting than ideas which aren't sensational.
The flying cars fantasy is a popular expression of the Myth of Progress (as is The Singularity). This myth is one binary extreme of people's visions of the future: it says that life in the future will keep getting better and better as people get richer and richer and technology becomes more and more advanced. The nuclear holocaust fear is a popular expression of the opposite binary extreme, the Myth of the Impending Apocalypse. This myth dates at least as far back as Biblical times, while the Myth of Progress only emerged in the past few centuries. Ironically nuclear weapons, which are a major fruit of technological and economic progress, are also one of the most plausible means by which ancient end-time prophecies could be literally fulfilled.
Many people tend to use one of these two Myths as the basis for their vision of the future because they are easy and interesting to imagine, and because they both involve an element of destiny and inevitability that absolves personal responsibility to actively participate in building the future. Accordingly, few people like to imagine middle-of-the-road visions of the future such as the world staying pretty much the same, life steadily getting crappier and more difficult without the world actually "ending", or a world in which people collectively endeavor to sacrifice material comforts in exchange for better environmental, social and psychological health.
Terxpahseyton
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Wow, didn't see that coming. You there nailed the symbolic meaning of the two right on, well done. 
Though I think the by you suggested motive - "absolves personal responsibility" - is too simplistic itself. But I guess there was your contempt talking 
Though I think the by you suggested motive - "absolves personal responsibility" - is too simplistic itself. But I guess there was your contempt talking 
timtofly
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Wow, didn't see that coming. You there nailed the symbolic meaning of the two right on, well done.
Freedom and annihilation, or both? Maybe there the same thing from different perspectives?
That's a really good point. Both binary extremes offer people a freedom of some sort, whether it's a nihilistic or hedonistic freedom. The common freedom offered by both visions is freedom from having to make an active effort to shape the future. This is not a statement of contempt, it's just a statement of fact: in the Flying Car future "the Scientists" take care of everything, while in the Nuclear Holocaust future God and/or The Powers That Be take care of everything. In either case everyone else is just along for the ride.
Save_Ferris
Admiring Myself
It's going to be an interesting century, perhaps interesting in the sense that nothing will happen at all.
kramerfan86
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Eh probability doesnt get much attention in mathematics outside of a very basic covering. I even got a math minor and probably only had a couple days work on probability, tends to get tossed aside in favor of geometry, algebra, trigonometry, and eventually Calculus unless you take a specific class on probability at some point, which is why when I raised the question I openly admitted I was unsure of my accuracy.
Ah yes, "the Great Filter". We have dismissed that claim.
kramerfan86
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I most certainly am.This made me laugh assuming you are referring to what I believe you are referring to.
kramerfan86
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Multiple times playing through mass effect 3 and there were reapers attacking that quote would pop into my head and I would get a nice chuckle.
Hygro
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Well, we don't know the technology curve of effective space colonization, but we do know that just because nuclear holocaust didn't happen doesn't mean it's because it's unlikely. We may have rolled some lucky dice.
The comment probably requires some extra context from playing the game in which it is made.
Hygro
soundcloud.com/hygro/
Word.
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Speaking of nuclear bang ups just read an article of rumor of a possible coup in China over this past weekend. And there might actually have been something to it. China is in the midst of a changing of the guard and it seems there are some Mao enthusiasts that might like a more nationalist direction than others.
kramerfan86
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I think you'd know if there had been a coup in china because it would be an extremely violent affair since I highly doubt loyalists to the current regime plan would just roll over. Pretty sure the coup rumor you referenced was based heavily on a photo of military activity that ended up being from 2 years ago.
civ2
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Flying cars - like already mentioned: too crowded and too dangerous to rely on computers.
Nuclear war - my personal opinion: not gonna happen anyways.
Oh, and some MATH.
Say, we have a daily lottery with p=0.5.
Let's say w is the chance to win at least once in the tiem period.
So, for 1 day, w=0.5 obviously.
Now, for 2.
4 outcomes:
00, 01, 10, 11
We need at least one 1, thus w=0.75!
For 3.
000, 001, 010, 100, 011, 101, 110, 111
w=0.875!
Now, if p=1/3, let's name it 2.
For 2.
00, 01, 02+, 10, 11, 12+, 20+, 21+, 22+; total 4- 5+; w=5/9=0.5555.
For 3.
000, 001, 002+, 010, 011, 012+, 020+, 021+, 022+, 100, 101, 102+, 110, 111, 112+, 120+, 121+, 122+, 200-222+x9; total 8- 19+; w=19/27=0.7037.
Seems, if p=1/n, w=(n^t-(n-1)^t)/(n^t) = 1-(n-1/n)^t.
(n-1/n) approaches 1 for big n, but for really big t, it approaches 0; thus w approaches 1.
Except, I wouldn't be so sure about whether this analogy is working, cause WHAT is w???
Chance for THIS country, ANY country, WORLD, etc???
Anyways, in real life - not gonna happen. 
Nuclear war - my personal opinion: not gonna happen anyways.
Oh, and some MATH.
Say, we have a daily lottery with p=0.5.
Let's say w is the chance to win at least once in the tiem period.
So, for 1 day, w=0.5 obviously.
Now, for 2.
4 outcomes:
00, 01, 10, 11
We need at least one 1, thus w=0.75!
For 3.
000, 001, 010, 100, 011, 101, 110, 111
w=0.875!
Now, if p=1/3, let's name it 2.
For 2.
00, 01, 02+, 10, 11, 12+, 20+, 21+, 22+; total 4- 5+; w=5/9=0.5555.
For 3.
000, 001, 002+, 010, 011, 012+, 020+, 021+, 022+, 100, 101, 102+, 110, 111, 112+, 120+, 121+, 122+, 200-222+x9; total 8- 19+; w=19/27=0.7037.
Seems, if p=1/n, w=(n^t-(n-1)^t)/(n^t) = 1-(n-1/n)^t.
(n-1/n) approaches 1 for big n, but for really big t, it approaches 0; thus w approaches 1.
Except, I wouldn't be so sure about whether this analogy is working, cause WHAT is w???
Chance for THIS country, ANY country, WORLD, etc???
Anyways, in real life - not gonna happen.
rugbyLEAGUEfan
Deity
And I thought your posts on religion and science were confusing???
But I still think you rock
But I still think you rock
A lot of scifi is also concerned with existential threats like global warming, giant asteroid impacts, pandemic disease, nuclear war (already mentioned), and the Singularity (Vernor Vinge). There's been a lot of scifi pessimism since the 80's. In any event, we're all obviously doomed and we'd better enjoy ourselves now while the good stuff is still here.
