Will there be war with Iran?

[bombshoo]

I am not sure anyone is planning an invasion in any realistic scenario. The question is entirely if bombing would be sufficient, which I still doubt. I often see Operation Opera lauded as a great example of a preventative strike, but somehow everyone forgets that the Iraqi nuclear program continued (and in a lot of ways was even accelerated) after the Israelis bombed Osarik.

The Iranian nuclear arsenal being so secretive and spread out would cause serious problems. I have read reports that the Israelis would not even be able to make anywhere close to the required number of airstrikes, and if there was to be any chance of success at all, American involvement would be a necessity.

I'm surprised at the lack of concern about Indian nukes. Unlike Pakistani and (eventualy) Iranian nukes, the Indians have solid fuel rockets which means they essentialy don't need any setup time.

In terms of unauthorized use, it is generally agreed that the Indian arsenal is much safer than the Pakistani arsenal. For just a couple of things, the Pakistanis don't use Permissive Action Link technology and the Indian officials in the nuclear chain of command at least appear to be much more trustworthy (I don't know of any Indian AQ Khans).

If you mean in terms of nuclear proliferation in general, I do agree that the lack of concern is somewhat...concerning. The exemptions granted to India by the Nuclear Suppliers Group despite it not being in the NPT have always seemed like a terrible double standard to me. It has to be one of the reasons why states like Iran and North Korea won't take the NPT seriously.

 

[bathsheba666]

I don't really see the value in doing that for Iran, they have no power projection abilities and wouldn't be able to harm Britain directly. Nothing would change really.

Talking about power projection, perhaps we should send our new carriers ?

 

[kochman]

Uhmm well... you have a christian president in the US just like there is a muslim president of Iran... You have Iraq(1.5 million casualites so far), you have Afghanistan, dont know how many thousands are dead now.
Denmark has christianity as a state religion and using your(american) terms that would constitude a christian nation and we are alwasy running to help our socalled civilized brethren, the us and most NATO countries in their wars.
All the major companies are run by more or less christian or jeweish people. They might not be that religious but still... As religious as the common muslim I'd say.
The world is not black and white. But everyone here who is prowar is aparently seeing it so, Muslims this mulims that. It is ONLY muslims who would sell their nuclear stuff? Christians would NEVER do it?

Blaming a religion for something people do for their own good is silly.
Gott mit Uns(Not Allah) was on the beltbuckle of most the german soldiers in ww2 while they slaughtered jews and other people...

As for aid orgs there is Islamic Relief, Muslim Aid, Hidaya, ICNA, LIFE... there is many are you claiming charity and help org. is a christian invention? heheh thats as silly as the church claiming to be the origin of human rights.

And yes being american is not being christian, and being danish is not either, but being Iranian is definately being muslim and muslim is baaaaad.... come on...

We (the west) aren't theocracies...
Iran is.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

We (the west) aren't theocracies...
Iran is.

Isn't Iran a Republic?
Tibet is a theocracy I guess and so is the Vatican.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

But yeah I guess in practise they are a theocracy... (Iran that is)

 

[bombshoo]

Isn't Iran a Republic?
Tibet is a theocracy I guess and so is the Vatican.

Er...Tibet hasn't been independent for quite some time.

 

[jtb1127]

Isn't Iran a Republic?
Tibet is a theocracy I guess and so is the Vatican.

Tibet's not a country and Iran is an autocratic theocracy with a puppet president who wins office via rigged elections.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

Er...Tibet hasn't been an independent for quite some time.

hehe I know...

 

[imperialman]

But still... how far away are those islands from bristish mainland? Pure imperialism on my mind.

I don't really think that imperialism is inherently bad, the islands had no prior population and really, the distance from them to the closest country isn't. Britain developed the islands and defended them twice. The people want to be British, they are British.

 

[imperialman]

Talking about power projection, perhaps we should send our new carriers ?

We still have power projection abilities. A carrier that is being launched in 2016 simply adds to our ability.

 

[Leoreth]

Which would help Israel how, exactly? (Just a rhetorical question, you don't have to answer ).

I hope you don't mind if I nevertheless answer it. Of course it wouldn't help Israel if it gets nuked and the US retaliate. But for nuclear warfare logic it's only important that the Iranians can be certain of retaliation in case they use the bomb first, and given that it'll never be worth it for them to risk it.

So everyone who fears that Iran might launch a sudden nuclear strike on Israel or anyone else as soon as they're capable of it has to assume that the Iranian government is made up of complete lunatics, which is a completely wrong assessment of the situation.

If Iran is ever going to get nuclear weapons, it's going to use it much like North Korea does: using them as a bargaining chip to get whatever favourable conditions from hostile foreign countries they need, and as a defensive threat against everyone talking about a quick invasion. This would be rational behavior.

(That said, I think Iran obtaining nuclear weapons would still be disastrous for the balance of power in the middle east and I wouldn't mind if Israel prevents it. I'm only objecting to the wildly unlikely scenarios that are thrown around here).

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

Tibet's not a country and Iran is an autocratic theocracy with a puppet president who wins office via rigged elections.

Yeah rigged elections... according to who?
The guardian council approves candidates, so they would just not approve others than the ones they want I guess so I see no reason to rig elections...
Rigged elections happens everywhere... In the US aswell.
There is as much proof of that as there is regarding Iran.

 

[Leoreth]

Well, major leaders of the political opposition vanishing without a trace at convenient times is quite unheard of in the United States.

 

[Patroklos]

Time for some corrections:

Iraqi civilian casualties since January 2005: 50152

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/index.aspx

Note, that includes all violent deaths, crimes included.

 

[Rulle_Kebab]

Time for some corrections:

Iraqi civilian casualties since January 2005: 50152

http://icasualties.org/Iraq/index.aspx

Note, that includes all violent deaths, crimes included.

What about this then: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq


Another thing regarding the theocracy...
In the US senate there is TWO members who is not affiliated with some sort of christianty. 12 jewish members and I think its the same picture in congress.
So yeah you might name it differently but in the end of the day, same thing different name...

 

[jtb1127]

Let me see... Russia, China and India are huge countries with which the US and its allies have zero leverage for military access.

I know this is four pages late but, the US and India have close military relations.

Yeah rigged elections... according to who?
The guardian council approves candidates, so they would just not approve others than the ones they want I guess so I see no reason to rig elections...
Rigged elections happens everywhere... In the US aswell.
There is as much proof of that as there is regarding Iran.

The guardian council, as you so cleverly pointed out, has complete control over the country, and therefore needs to produce the illusion of democracy to maintain this. And no, rigged elections do not occur in the US and if you are going to compare American democracy to that of Iran, I have news for you:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index

US is ranked 17 while Iran closes in with 158.

 

[Ajidica]

Well, major leaders of the political opposition vanishing without a trace at convenient times is quite unheard of in the United States.

The level of democracy in Iran is at pretty much the same level as in most of the middle east, such as pre-revolution Egypt and Syria. Democracy is only allowed if the ruler likes it. Iran might actualy be a bit better as they do have peaceful leadership changes occasionaly (the current supreme leader, Khameni, has only been the Supreme Leader for about seven years, IIRC).

 

[jtb1127]

Another thing regarding the theocracy...
In the US senate there is TWO members who is not affiliated with some sort of christianty. 12 jewish members and I think its the same picture in congress.
So yeah you might name it differently but in the end of the day, same thing different name...

Oh please. The American constitution specifically says something about theocracy.

 

[Patroklos]

What about this then: http://www.justforeignpolicy.org/iraq

What about it? Nobody has taken the Lancet seriously for years. You understand it is not based on a single fact, but rather just a poll where they asked random Iraqis their opinion and extrapolated never confirming anything, right?

iCasualties, on the other hand, substantiates every single death with evidence. No extrapolation. Or in other words it's legit.

Another thing regarding the theocracy...
In the US senate there is TWO members who is not affiliated with some sort of christianty. 12 jewish members and I think its the same picture in congress.
So yeah you might name it differently but in the end of the day, same thing different name...

Awesome, so every nation on earth is a theocracy apparently.

 

[aelf]

I'm curious as to what people think a theocracy is in this thread.

The guardian council, as you so cleverly pointed out, has complete control over the country, and therefore needs to produce the illusion of democracy to maintain this. And no, rigged elections do not occur in the US and if you are going to compare American democracy to that of Iran, I have news for you.

How do you know that it "has complete control over the country"?