Would you colonize Mars?

It will take probably several hundred years for life on Mars to approach being normal in terms of workload because it will take that long to build a truly robust infrastructure given the nature of the place. So even if you waited for the second, third or fiftieth wave of colonists, it won't matter. Life will be hard, it will suck.

But should you go, you would have the opportunity to build a whole new world for life, for our civilization. Through your efforts, you can actually make a difference in how this new society shapes up, you can help steer it how you want it to be as there will be so few people there as it is being set up. That is well worth the hardship and toil; to set up a new civilization is not something anyone alive has really ever done.
 
I'd prefer Venus after we install a solar shade.

Sure, if you're willing to wait for a couple of centuries before it cools down... and don't mind a massive atmosphere with ground-level pressures of 90 Earth atmospheres...

(but if we kept it in total darkness, we could create seas of liquid CO2, that would be cool... literally.)
 
I wonder if we should focus on solar system infrastructure before remotely attempting to colonize another world. Has anyone ever done the math of a feasible solar energy operation on a body like Mercury?
 
There are probably studies out there and Ben Bova wrote a really good sci fi book about it called Mercury. One problem he foresaw was the intense radiation environment rapidly degrading solar cells, though I guess you could just as easily use mirrors to bounce light to a power station to boil water which wouldn't be as susceptible to degradation.

The US government has extensively studied similar but much smaller scale projects in the cislunar system. The design study I mentioned from NASA was about building a space habitat to aid production of solar power systems to drop into orbit to beam power back to Earth. I also know the US military is studying smaller solar power stations in LEO to beam power down to remote bases.

I think at this point the economics of such schemes don't work out if and until dirtier sources of power start being taxed/penalized for their impact on the environment. But for specialized uses such as powering remote military bases, the economics don't matter as much.
 
It will take probably several hundred years for life on Mars to approach being normal in terms of workload because it will take that long to build a truly robust infrastructure given the nature of the place. So even if you waited for the second, third or fiftieth wave of colonists, it won't matter. Life will be hard, it will suck.

But should you go, you would have the opportunity to build a whole new world for life, for our civilization. Through your efforts, you can actually make a difference in how this new society shapes up, you can help steer it how you want it to be as there will be so few people there as it is being set up. That is well worth the hardship and toil; to set up a new civilization is not something anyone alive has really ever done.

Nobody's going to suffer willingly if there isn't a promise of it paying off for them and their families. They're sure as heck not going to go because of a 'new civilization' that would come about from their efforts sometime in the next century or two. Plenty of Jews from the early Yishuv got to witness the founding of the state of Israel; nobody who comes to Mars as a frontline settler is ever going to witness their labors come to anything. During the colonization of the Americas and Australia, the poor and persecuted were shipped in massive numbers. There will never be a time when traveling to Mars will be cheap relative to another country or continent. Unless Mars really prospers, perhaps from the asteroid mining trade, I can't imagine it being settled before terraforming takes off.

It's also pretty fascinating to think about what Mars' eventual demographic makeup will be, as a result.
 
Nobody's going to suffer willingly if there isn't a promise of it paying off for them and their families.
If you think they would be suffering, then you don't understand their motivations for going.

They're sure as heck not going to go because of a 'new civilization' that would come about from their efforts sometime in the next century or two.
Sure they will.


Plenty of Jews from the early Yishuv got to witness the founding of the state of Israel; nobody who comes to Mars as a frontline settler is ever going to witness their labors come to anything.
That's blatantly false. So much so that it doesn't even make sense.

During the colonization of the Americas and Australia, the poor and persecuted were shipped in massive numbers.
And yet millions upon millions gave up good jobs, easy lives and tons of money to come over and toil for the same type of things Martian colonists would go for. Not everyone who went (and still goes) to the Americas and Australia were convicts, slaves and/or destitute, you know?

There will never be a time when traveling to Mars will be cheap relative to another country or continent.
And? There will never be a time when moving to another country or continent is cheaper than going to the next town over, either. Yet people still do it and they did it even when going across the ocean was extraordinarily difficult and expensive with 0 guarantees of any sort of success on the other end. And they still kept going even when early colonization efforts didn't work out and everyone died; they kept going even when Indian wars, disease, pestilence and starvation set in.


Unless Mars really prospers, perhaps from the asteroid mining trade, I can't imagine it being settled before terraforming takes off.
You're putting the cart before the horse there. *People*, not projects or economic endeavors, make economies flourish. Without the people, there are not projects or endeavors; there is no terraforming, there is no asteroid mining trade, there is nothing without the people first.

It's also pretty fascinating to think about what Mars' eventual demographic makeup will be, as a result.
I'm guessing mostly Chinese to be honest, but I have no idea really.
 
Sure, if you're willing to wait for a couple of centuries before it cools down... and don't mind a massive atmosphere with ground-level pressures of 90 Earth atmospheres...

(but if we kept it in total darkness, we could create seas of liquid CO2, that would be cool... literally.)

I'm not sure how long it would take Venus to cool down if we were able to block sunlight, but you can use elemental hydrogen to take care of the carbon dioxide problem. Using the Bosch reaction and airborne catalysts you could simultaneously introduce water to the planet, reduce atmospheric pressure and solve the problem.
 
Bringing enough elemental hydrogen to Venus to make a dent in atmospheric levels of CO2 is one massive challenge.
 
Bringing enough elemental hydrogen to Venus to make a dent in atmospheric levels of CO2 is one massive challenge.

4*10 to the 19th power Kg according to Wikipedia.

(Incidentally, is there a keyboard shortcut to get heightened text?)
 
Yeah, that's an enormous amount to move around and it's far more than we could conceivably handle any time soon. (I don't know of the shortcut you want, sorry)


Incidentally, I skimmed the article and found a line that speaks to my point to Cheezy about solar-stripping of the atmosphere not to be a huge concern (in the short to medium term):

Loss of hydrogen due to the solar wind is unlikely to be significant on the timescale of terraforming
This is hydrogen, which of course is the lightest element and tends to therefore rise to the top of the atmosphere. This is also Venus, which receives much more radiation than Mars. Therefore, I think it's safe to say solar stripping of Mars' terraformed atmosphere isn't a huge concern. It will have to be dealt with eventually, but it won't happen fast enough to matter for many generations and would likely happen slowly enough that we could just replace it faster than it is lost even if we couldn't stop it.
 
If you think they would be suffering, then you don't understand their motivations for going.

Yes, I assume they'll be so dedicated to future generations they'll just grin and bear it.

That's blatantly false. So much so that it doesn't even make sense.

Why is it? Ten years after landing and setting up a colony, they get sixteen more people and and some materials to expand the infrastructure a bit more. Yay, an occasion! Maybe we'll even have a slight rations increase to celebrate!

The truth is, until the colony's population growth comes more from native births than Earthling immigrants, you're never going to actually see the civilization you're dedicating your life to. That could easily be a century or two. The actual day-to-day living would probably be like prison.

And yet millions upon millions gave up good jobs, easy lives and tons of money to come over and toil for the same type of things Martian colonists would go for. Not everyone who went (and still goes) to the Americas and Australia were convicts, slaves and/or destitute, you know?

I assumed the majority were (and still are). There was also religious persecution.

And? There will never be a time when moving to another country or continent is cheaper than going to the next town over, either. Yet people still do it and they did it even when going across the ocean was extraordinarily difficult and expensive with 0 guarantees of any sort of success on the other end.

Traveling across water is inherently cheap. It's always been that way, even in antiquity. Traveling across space is never going to be in the same league as Earth travel of any sort.

And they still kept going even when early colonization efforts didn't work out and everyone died; they kept going even when Indian wars, disease, pestilence and starvation set in.

I don't know much about the colonization of the New World, but weren't a lot of people enticed there with lies? You know, that it was overflowing with gold?

You're putting the cart before the horse there. *People*, not projects or economic endeavors, make economies flourish. Without the people, there are not projects or endeavors; there is no terraforming, there is no asteroid mining trade, there is nothing without the people first.

Asteroid mining isn't more than a half-century away. We'll know what kind of potential Mars has long before we start full-scale settlements.

I'm guessing mostly Chinese to be honest, but I have no idea really.

Do you think there will be racial separation or conflict of some sort on Mars? It does seem like the right place for it to thrive.
 
Yes, I assume they'll be so dedicated to future generations they'll just grin and bear it.
And this proves what exactly?

Why is it? Ten years after landing and setting up a colony, they get sixteen more people and and some materials to expand the infrastructure a bit more. Yay, an occasion! Maybe we'll even have a slight rations increase to celebrate!
No, that's not how it'll work. They'll move in very large batches to Mars, not in small, NASA-style capsules. It won't work any other way.
The truth is, until the colony's population growth comes more from native births than Earthling immigrants, you're never going to actually see the civilization you're dedicating your life to. That could easily be a century or two. The actual day-to-day living would probably be like prison.
This doesn't follow at all. You'll be building the first cities, block by block; setting up the first power grids, farms and transportation networks, communication infrastructure, etc etc. You'll see all of this being built every single day of your life from the moment you arrive to the day you die. Because setting up a colony is hard work and takes an awful lot of construction. So you'll absolutely see the changes, you'll be a part of those changes. And as I said, since the population will be small (relative to Earth norms), you as an individual will have an outsized impact on how that civilization is set up.


I assumed the majority were (and still are). There was also religious persecution.
You assumed wrong. Immigration was and is very expensive in many cases. If people show up poor at their destination, it's often the case (particularly wrt North America and Australia) that they're poor because they've spent all their money getting there. It's easier for the poor to cross land borders (so North Africans to Europe, Mexicans to the US), and as ocean travel costs have fallen (and it's gotten safer) many poor do immigrate. But when the 13 colonies were being set up, most of those that weren't slaves were pretty well off and they had to pay a lot of money (often times, everything they had) to get across the ocean. Even those that fled religious prosecution. And even in modern times, if you can't easily cross a land border, then you have to be well off to immigrate across an ocean.

Heck, even immigrating for things like education prefers the rich. Most of the Arab, Chinese and Indian students in the US are from wealthy families.

Traveling across water is inherently cheap.
Not really. Particularly when you are setting up the infrastructure to move people and goods across new routes. A ton of money goes into ship building (a really absurd amount, it's common for cargo ships to cost upwards of a billion dollars I think) and setting up ports at both ends of the destination. After the infrastructure is there, the marginal costs go down, but it's never really cheap to move a lot of people and goods, which is what colonization is all about. And it was proportionally more expensive when the early American settlements were being developed and populated.

It's always been that way, even in antiquity. Traveling across space is never going to be in the same league as Earth travel of any sort.
Of course not. Now what's your broader point?

I don't know much about the colonization of the New World, but weren't a lot of people enticed there with lies? You know, that it was overflowing with gold?
Oh sure, that happened. Though most of that kind of lying *I think* happened more after people were already in the US, to entice them to go West.


Asteroid mining isn't more than a half-century away. We'll know what kind of potential Mars has long before we start full-scale settlements.
You're right, asteroid mining is coming soon and we'll see if it works out economically. But Mars has nothing really to offer commercially to Earth. It's just not economical to move goods back to Earth, excepting novelties ('Made on Mars') that sell for absurd amounts and of course scientific/economic discoveries that people come up with to cope with life on Mars. The latter will be a massive source of economic growth - just as American industrialization and automation to cope with chronic labor shortages helped pushed the US to the top of the economic ladder. Those innovations didn't just stay in the US either, the entire world moved forward and the same thing will happen on Mars as people come up with new ideas, techniques and inventions to cope with very spartan, austere circumstances.

Do you think there will be racial separation or conflict of some sort on Mars? It does seem like the right place for it to thrive.
Yes, unfortunately I do. Particularly if countries begin setting up national colonies. Really, I'd worry about India and China doing this and they'd of course preferentially send Indians and Chinese (probably exclusively). In the West, corporations will probably do most of the settling which means the ethnic mix will be a *bit* better but will likely still till heavily towards the demographics of the nations the corporations are based in. But perhaps not, perhaps they'll cater mostly to the rich who can afford a ticket regardless of their nationality.

Regardless, I think early Martian settlements will wind up racially stratified. It will be a while be they blend together, which will happen faster on Mars than on Earth because their won't (hopefully) be national borders and such to tie people down. But I don't think the kind of entrenched, bitter, and never-ending racial strife that exists on the Earth will ever really work on Mars.
 
There are probably studies out there and Ben Bova wrote a really good sci fi book about it called Mercury. One problem he foresaw was the intense radiation environment rapidly degrading solar cells, though I guess you could just as easily use mirrors to bounce light to a power station to boil water which wouldn't be as susceptible to degradation.
Yep. Bova is a scientist, as well as a writer, so the science in his novels is as accurate as he can make it at the time of writing.

I recommend his novel Mars (in the Grand Tour series) and he just released another novel about exploring Mars: Rescue Mode

I just ordered that one as my birthday present to myself this year. :)
 
Why does that matter? It would almost certainly be the latter, for various reasons.

It matters for me because my biggest reason for being one of the colonists would be to get away from the crappy governments of Earth and get a fresh start on a new world. It's not really a fresh start if the colony is just considered a new territory under the sovereign rule of the nation that established it.
 
It matters for me because my biggest reason for being one of the colonists would be to get away from the crappy governments of Earth and get a fresh start on a new world. It's not really a fresh start if the colony is just considered a new territory under the sovereign rule of the nation that established it.

But they have a heck of a lot less power there. It's the next best thing.
 
Let me think...

- No office workers.
- No marketing.
- No homosexual propaganda.
- No nature exploitation (since there's no nature).
- No capitalism.

Where do I sign?!

Capitalists will probably be some of the major backers of such a project. Marketing will be there once people arrive, because they will buy things and businesses will want them to be their customers. And those dastardly gays will probably be somewhere among the first waves of colonists.
 
Capitalists will probably be some of the major backers of such a project. Marketing will be there once people arrive, because they will buy things and businesses will want them to be their customers. And those dastardly gays will probably be somewhere among the first waves of colonists.

Lets not forget those closet and latent homosexuals. Just patiently waiting until the transports leave to unleash teh gay on the unsuspecting populations.

I think marketing will have a lesser effect because settlements or at least some of them will be striving for self-sufficiency.
 
Why? Why would a cooperation want to colonize Mars? What is the payback?

Very little. There are two sets of economics here:
- the motivation for sending people.
- the motivation for going.

There's no real exports from Mars we can think of, for this reason it's never really worth sending people. Outside of tourist or celebrity contracts, of course.

The motivation for going would merely be assuming your life would be better there than here. That's why some people would be willing to pay/work here in order to get there.

So, a corporation could exist to serve the people who're willing to fund their own way. That model is entirely viable.
 
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