2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Zardnaar]

I think he ended up outperforming in 2016 as he was the only major challenger to Clinton. People will say Warren split the left-wing of the party’s vote, but I don’t think she took away enough from him to explain the performance gap this year vs. 4 years ago.

Nope he sucked more this year.

Warren's campaign essentially collapsed. If all her voters went to him he still loses.

Dems didn't have to do anything dirty to beat him, I don't think he ever got to 25%.

And that's just with his best case scenario most favorable crowd outside Vermont he could get.

General election fodder although he might win because he's not Trump.

It was a big longshot.

Same thing happens here. "Why did the progressives not win"? Short answer they can't there's not enough of them.

 

[Ironsided]

Over 60% of Americans support Bernies policies over existing policy. Bernie sunk himself when he did not take up the fight with his corrupt party. Bernie was too afraid to be the new Ralph Nader. If Bernies policy is unpalatable to American why did you move to a country with Bernie policy in place Amadeus? Why are you flaunting and gushing about Arden and her Bernie policy and her 50% victory in NZ Zardnaar?

 

[amadeus]

If Bernies policy is unpalatable to American why did you move to a country with Bernie policy in place Amadeus?

This question requires further explanation.

Without explanation, I’m not the average American voter. I’m not the average anything.

 

[Zardnaar]

Over 60% of Americans support Bernies policies over existing policy. Bernie sunk himself when he did not take up the fight with his corrupt party. Bernie was too afraid to be the new Ralph Nader. If Bernies policy is unpalatable to American why did you move to a country with Bernie policy in place Amadeus? Why are you flaunting and gushing about Arden and her Bernie policy and her 50% victory in NZ Zardnaar?

She won by being competent and she campaigned as a centrist explicitly ruling out tax hikes. Progressive by US standards.

I don't think you can win an election in the anglo-saxon world running as a progressive.

You can win with a left of center coalition. They got 58% of the vote but a large chunk of that was centrists, swing voters, some on the right and people voting for Jacinda not the Labour party.

 

[Ironsided]

You both pay higher taxes than Americans and both enjoy a modern universal healthcare system and a much more secure legislation when it comes to labour and social security and pretty much all progressive policy.

 

[Zardnaar]

You both pay higher taxes than Americans and both enjoy a modern universal healthcare system and a much more secure legislation when it comes to labour and social security and pretty much all progressive policy.

We've had that for decades though going back to the 1930s or even 1880's-90's.

That's not regarded as progressive here. For the most part it's like if the Democrats split into four or five parties. Hardcore right gets about 2% conservative with a small C to liberal neo libs make up the bulk of the right.

 

[Ironsided]

You want Americans to have less than you. Because you dreamt up a reality where they want to have it worse than you.

 

[Zardnaar]

You want Americans to have less than you. Because you dreamt up a reality where they want to have it worse than you.

Nope. America is inherently more conservative than NZ and the popular vote doesn't matter.

You need to win the mid west, Florida/Ohio to win a US election. Sanders probably not gonna have much appeal in purple states.

 

[Ironsided]

Yeah you keep saying probably and draw random hard numbers out your ‘a’ like 10% or 15%. You are not convincing anyone.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yeah you keep saying probably and draw random hard numbers out your ‘a’ like 10% or 15%. You are not convincing anyone.

Those numbers are based on what Bernie got.

Dems have around 45% baked in support maybe slightly higher.

Bernie got what a third of the Democratic vote in the primaries not the general.

1/3rd of 45 is 15%. Not every Democrat voted so he got one third of the most enthusiastic Democrats.

His real support is at best IMHO that same % but likely lower.

It's taken 40 years to get to this point. There's no quick fix, you're looking at a generation minimum. Assuming you win more often than not.

 

[Kyriakos]

Those numbers are based on what Bernie got.

Dems have around 45% baked in support maybe slightly higher.

Bernie got what a third of the Democratic vote in the primaries not the general.

1/3rd of 45 is 15%. Not every Democrat voted so he got one third of the most enthusiastic Democrats.

His real support is at best IMHO that same % but likely lower.

That doesn't mean anything. Do you think Biden will just get the percentage of people who voted for him in the primaries?

 

[Ironsided]

Well that’s a really simplistic logic when half the country doesn't even vote to begin with, most of whom cite they don’t like the options. There is also a good few populist votes who will vote for Trump who would have voted for Bernie but jus have had it with the ‘swamp’.

 

[Zardnaar]

Well that’s a really simplistic logic when half the country doesn't even vote to begin with, most of whom cite they don’t like the options. There is also a good few populist votes who will vote for Trump who would have voted for Bernie but jus have had it with the ‘swamp’.

And how do you fix that? Getting Trump out, post Biden and boomers dying off.

I suspect Trump will collapse the vote. You can go more progressive when.

A major purple state turn blue. Or several smaller states.

Or
Various red states turn purple.

So probably 2028/32.

The GoP will have to moderate or be locked out for 20 odd years a'la 1932-52.

 

[Ironsided]

OK Nostradamus.

 

[Zardnaar]

OK Nostradamus.

Common sense.

Any progressive who thinks it's a quick and easy fix is full of crap.

 

[Kyriakos]

Common sense.

Any progressive who thinks it's a quick and easy fix is full of crap.

I will hold you personally responsible if Chloe isn't given a seat in parliament

 

[Zardnaar]

I will hold you personally responsible if Chloe isn't given a seat in parliament

Greens tend to overperform on special votes. She worked her ass off for the seat her main competition had a lead in the polls but just kind of expected it. 0 charisma.

Last week surge towards Greens, only picked up in final polls.

Internal polling picked it up.

 

[Gorbles]

Common sense.

Any progressive who thinks it's a quick and easy fix is full of crap.

Nobody says it's quick or easy, but you seem to assume that the "fix" is a new thing? People have been championing equal rights and other progressive values now derided as "woke" for decades. It is always slow. It is always hard. It often involves breaking the law (from suffragettes all the way to civil rights sit-ins). All this stuff you're talking about didn't pop into existence last week, or last year.

The fact that half these discussions are complete rehashes of what you were saying in 2016 is evidence of that.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Over 60% of Americans support Bernies policies over existing policy. Bernie sunk himself when he did not take up the fight with his corrupt party. Bernie was too afraid to be the new Ralph Nader. If Bernies policy is unpalatable to American why did you move to a country with Bernie policy in place Amadeus? Why are you flaunting and gushing about Arden and her Bernie policy and her 50% victory in NZ Zardnaar?

Just look at a picture of Arden versus a picture of Bernie. Bernie just isn't physically attractive enough to pull off his message, because he looks too old. I've been saying this all along. A candidate who had Bernie's message but looked like Arden would have beaten Hillary in 2016, and could possibly have won the nomination in 2020.

 

[Farm Boy]

So you're basically in love with Reagan's hair every time we snide at each other about that dork with the raging ... fanclub? !